Boston Red Sox: Five free-agents who must be avoided
By Sean Penney
Red Sox must avoid Pedro Baez
The Red Sox bullpen is in dire need of an upgrade after finishing the year with a collective 5.79 ERA, which ranked 27th in the majors.
Relief pitchers tend to be volatile and therefore difficult to project year-to-year. There are plenty of underwhelming arms available that we should have no interest in. Rather than run through the multitude of poor-performing pitchers that can be found in the bargain bin, I’m focusing on a reliever who could get paid a decent contract despite some red flags.
Pedro Baez has one of the steadier track records in this free-agent class. He doesn’t have experience as a closer with only three rouge saves on his resume but he’s been a reliable setup man during his seven seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Baez owns a career 3.03 ERA that hasn’t fluctuated much higher or lower over the years. He posted a solid 3.18 ERA in 17 innings this season.
Despite his continued success, there are some concerns that Baez is due for regression. His career-high 5.73 xFIP is significantly higher than his career 4.17 xFIP and both are over a full run higher than his ERA.
This biggest reason for his rising xFIP is a drastic decline in strikeout rate. Baez struck out over a batter per inning with a 9.91 K/9 in 2018. That dipped slightly to 8.91 K/9 last year before plummeting to 6.88 K/9 this season.
The shortened season provides small sample sizes, especially for relievers. We have evidence that this declining strikeout rate isn’t a fluke though. Baez has seen his velocity drop as well. After averaging over 97 mph with his fastball during his peak seasons, Baez dipped to 96 mph last year and a career-low 94.4 mph this season. Losing velocity might explain why his swinging strike rate fell to 12.4% this year after hovering at around 15% for most of his career.
The 32-year old appears to be heading for a decline. If his velocity and strikeouts keep trending in the wrong direction, his ERA will begin to match the level that his xFIP suggests it should be.