Red Sox offseason plan Step 3: Add an ace
Flush with cash to spend, the Red Sox should set their sights on the top target in this free-agent class who happens to fill a position of need – Trevor Bauer.
Boston’s rotation will be significantly improved by the return of Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale. However, with E-Rod potentially rusty after missing an entire season and Sale’s timeline uncertain as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery, the Red Sox need a more reliable ace to anchor their rotation in 2021.
Bauer is the best that money can buy this offseason. The front-runner for the NL Cy Young award led the league with a 1.73 ERA and 0.795 WHIP while producing a career-high 12.3 K/9 and 5.88 K/BB ratio.
Bauer’s brash attitude makes him a questionable fit for Boston’s intense market but the risk is mitigated if he’s willing to sign a one-year deal, an option he’s been open to considering.
A 1-year, $37 million deal would make Bauer the highest paid pitcher in baseball next season. You can certainly debate against him actually being the best pitcher in baseball but the Red Sox will need to overpay in order to convince him to sign for only one year. Gerrit Cole is currently the highest paid pitcher in baseball at $36 million per year but the length of his contract comes with significant risk of decline or injury on the back end of the deal. There’s no such risk with a one-year deal, so this route will require giving Bauer a record-setting amount.
The Red Sox need a pitcher of Bauer’s caliber to stabilize their rotation. They should have more certainty regarding the health of Rodriguez and Sale entering 2022, while their young pitching prospects could be ready to contribute by then. Boston might not need Bauer as much by that point so if he doesn’t fit in here then they can move on after one season to open a significant chunk of payroll space.