Boston Red Sox: Six steps for a perfect 2020-2021 offseason
This offseason will be perfect if the Red Sox can pull off these moves.
Chaim Bloom has his work cut out for him to rebuild a Boston Red Sox roster that finished last in their division with the fourth-worst record in baseball. While the challenge seems steep, there is a path to success that could put the club back in contention next year.
A tight budget prevented the Red Sox from making upgrades heading into this season but Bloom should have more financial freedom this winter now that the luxury tax penalties have been reset. Boston has an estimated $31.43 million in space beneath the $210 million luxury tax threshold and they can carve out more room with a few shrewd moves.
The Red Sox need to be careful about any long-term deals they hand out in order to retain flexibility to reset the penalties again in the near future but we can’t rule out the possibility of Boston paying the tax next year. If they do, I expect that they’ll stay within the first tier where the penalties are minimal for first-time offenders.
They will spend some money this offseason but projecting them to blow beyond the tax threshold by $20+ million, which would trigger steeper penalties, is unrealistic. That makes $210 million an ideal target to cap the budget at with $230 million as the absolute maximum.
By following these steps, Boston can clear enough payroll space to make a few impact signings without trapping themselves in luxury tax hell.
Red Sox offseason plan Step 1: Buy out Dustin Pedroia
How they approach Dustin Pedroia will be the key to determining how much they can spend. The veteran second baseman is a respected icon in this city whose career has been derailed by a debilitating knee injury. It’s highly unlikely that he’ll ever take the field again but Pedroia isn’t expected to simply retire and forfeit his remaining salary. He earned that money with his outstanding play prior to his injury.
A compromise could come in the form of a buyout. The Red Sox are on the hook for the $12 million owed to Pedroia in the final year of his contract. If he’s on the 40-man roster or injured list to begin next season, Pedroia’s salary will count for $13.3 million towards the luxury tax based on the average annual value of his contract. He could still be paid most of that money in a buyout with the team perhaps getting some savings but the primary goals would be removing his salary for tax purposes and opening a spot on the 40-man roster.
If Pedroia is ready to admit that his comeback attempt has stalled for the last time then he might be open to a buyout. An amicable agreement could lead to him remaining with the organization in an advisory or mentoring role.
Removing Pedroia’s salary from the payroll increases Boston’s room under the tax to nearly $45 million but they’ll need more than that in order to pull off the perfect offseason.
Red Sox offseason plan Step 2: Restructure J.D. Martinez contract
The next step is restructuring the contract of J.D. Martinez. He has an opt-out clause that he’s unlikely to exercise in the wake of a disappointing season with uncertain market conditions for a veteran DH.
If Martinez opts-in, he’ll be owed $19.35 million in each of the next two seasons but count for $22 million against the tax. As long as the Red Sox are convinced that his struggles at the plate were the result of an unprecedented season that drastically altered his routine, they should try to convince him to opt-out in order to sign a longer deal to remain in Boston.
A 4-year, $68 million deal locks in two more years and more guaranteed money for Martinez. He would be taking a slight pay cut down to $17 million in each of the next two seasons but that’s probably more than he’d earn on his next deal if he waited until he’s 35 years old to test free agency.
For comparison, Nelson Cruz has won three Silver Slugger awards as a DH after turning 34 but hasn’t been paid more than $14.25 million in any of those seasons. In this market, it’s hard to imagine Martinez getting much more than that per year at a similar age.
Under the structure of this new deal, the Red Sox would save $5 million against the tax in 2021, pushing their available space beneath the threshold to around $50 million.
Red Sox offseason plan Step 3: Add an ace
Flush with cash to spend, the Red Sox should set their sights on the top target in this free-agent class who happens to fill a position of need – Trevor Bauer.
Boston’s rotation will be significantly improved by the return of Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale. However, with E-Rod potentially rusty after missing an entire season and Sale’s timeline uncertain as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery, the Red Sox need a more reliable ace to anchor their rotation in 2021.
Bauer is the best that money can buy this offseason. The front-runner for the NL Cy Young award led the league with a 1.73 ERA and 0.795 WHIP while producing a career-high 12.3 K/9 and 5.88 K/BB ratio.
Bauer’s brash attitude makes him a questionable fit for Boston’s intense market but the risk is mitigated if he’s willing to sign a one-year deal, an option he’s been open to considering.
A 1-year, $37 million deal would make Bauer the highest paid pitcher in baseball next season. You can certainly debate against him actually being the best pitcher in baseball but the Red Sox will need to overpay in order to convince him to sign for only one year. Gerrit Cole is currently the highest paid pitcher in baseball at $36 million per year but the length of his contract comes with significant risk of decline or injury on the back end of the deal. There’s no such risk with a one-year deal, so this route will require giving Bauer a record-setting amount.
The Red Sox need a pitcher of Bauer’s caliber to stabilize their rotation. They should have more certainty regarding the health of Rodriguez and Sale entering 2022, while their young pitching prospects could be ready to contribute by then. Boston might not need Bauer as much by that point so if he doesn’t fit in here then they can move on after one season to open a significant chunk of payroll space.
Red Sox offseason plan Step 4: Sign a closer
While the Red Sox need help in the rotation, the bullpen is in even greater need of an upgrade. Following the deadline deal that shipped Brandon Workman to Philadelphia, Boston turned primarily to Matt Barnes to close out games. If this team is serious about contending next year, they will need a more reliable closer.
There are several relief pitchers with closing experience on the market this winter. The top option will be Oakland A’s closer Liam Hendriks.
The highest paid reliever to sign a free-agent deal last year was Will Smith’s 3-year, $39 million deal with the Atlanta Braves. Smith’s career 4.7 WAR is identical to Hendriks’ and they are approximately the same age. We should expect Hendriks to get a very similar deal with an average annual value of $13 million, which would be tied for eighth in MLB history for a reliever.
If the Red Sox strike out with luring Hendriks, Alex Colome provides a suitable backup plan. Bloom’s familiarity with him from their time together with the Tampa Bay Rays might even make him a higher priority, especially if he is slightly cheaper.
Signing Hendriks or any of the other top available closers on the market in addition to Bauer eats up the $50 million in payroll space under the tax threshold but it fills Boston’s two biggest holes. They could be content with stopping there but a perfect offseason needs to push a bit further.
Red Sox offseason plan Step 5: Clear more payroll space
We need to cut some payroll in order to make one more big slash in free agency without crossing into the second-tier of tax penalties.
The Red Sox have a $6.85 million team option for Martin Perez next season. Simply declining the option is an easy way to free up payroll space but his salary is a relative bargain based on how he produced this year. Teams in need of a No. 4 or 5 starter would certainly be interested in acquiring him at that price so declining the option would be a waste of a valuable asset.
Boston might prefer to keep him but if they end up signing Bauer, Perez is a bit more expendable. If they can flip him for a middle reliever on a cheap contract or who is still pre-arbitration eligible, Boston could save money and upgrade over one of the several failed bullpen options they cycled through this year. Two birds, one stone.
The Red Sox have several non-tender candidates that could create a path to more savings. Cutting the cord on Jose Peraza, Zack Godley, Austin Brice, and Ryan Weber frees approximately $6 million. Boston is going to have to trim their 40-man roster anyway to make room for free-agent signings plus prospects they want to protect from the Rule 5 draft.
Red Sox offseason plan Step 6: Spend on a big bat
These additional roster cuts plus the Perez trade could open up about $12 million in spending room under the tax line. That might be enough to re-sign Jackie Bradley Jr. or another comparable mid-tier center fielder.
They might also consider bargain hunting for cheaper options, perhaps by bringing back Kevin Pillar, or they could turn the position over to promising prospect Jarren Duran if they feel he’s ready. Either scenario would leave Boston with some wiggle room under the tax line in case they need it for a mid-season trade.
That’s a sound strategy but if the Red Sox are going for the perfect offseason, they need to be prepared to dive into the tax. That doesn’t mean spending recklessly as if the penalties don’t matter but Boston can afford to cross the line as long as it’s by less than $20 million to stay in the first tier of penalties, especially if Bauer’s one-year deal provides the flexibility to potentially reset again next year.
That would open the door for one of the top bats on the market. George Springer would be the top choice. The three-time All-Star is a solid defensive center fielder and his bat is a tremendous upgrade over the streaky Bradley jr.
Like most Astros hitters, Springer’s production at the plate dipped a bit during a season cluttered with outside distractions. His .265 average and .899 OPS were still solid and he added 14 home runs. We know that he’s capable of more though and a fresh start away from Houston might be just what he needs.
Springer won’t be cheap but his salary should fall below former MVP outfielders Mookie Betts, Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper and Christian Yelich. Springer is a tier below those guys and at 31 years old, he won’t demand the same type of long-term commitment.
An average annual value of $23 million is a fair projection so let’s call it a 5-year, $115 million deal.
Marcell Ozuna is an appealing backup plan if Boston wants to add a big bat to their outfield. He hit .338 this season while leading the National League with 18 home runs and 56 RBI.
He’s not a perfect fit since Ozuna is a poor defender at this stage of his career. The Red Sox would need to move Alex Verdugo or Andrew Benintendi to center field and put Ozuna in a corner spot. He would eventually take over the DH role once Martinez’s contract is up.
The 29-year-old might require more years than Springer to sign him but the limited defensive value could make Ozuna a bit cheaper on an average annual basis.
Either way, the Red Sox can afford one of these star outfielders and still have room for some minor roster tweaks mid-season without crossing into the second tier of tax penalties.
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Signing an ace in Bauer plus an elite closer would be a strong offseason that puts the Red Sox back in the mix for playoff contention and they can conceivably do so without paying the tax. It’s not a perfect offseason unless their moves transform them into a potential championship contender though. If the Red Sox are willing to pay the first-tier penalties for one season, there is a viable path to making that work.