My 2020 Boston Red Sox season preview and predictions

Red Sox Pitching

Now we get to the part of the team that will absolutely torpedo any chances the Red Sox have to compete in 2020.  On the whole, the 2018 Red Sox pitching went 108-54 (obviously) with a 3.75 ERA, 46 saves, and 1558 strikeouts in 1458.2 innings.

The same group returned in 2019 but due to a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness, they were detrimental to the team’s success. The stat line for all Red Sox pitchers that season was 84-78 (again, obviously) with a 4.70 ERA (almost an entire run higher than the year before), 33 saves (down 13 from 2018) and 1633 strikeouts in 1471.0 innings.

Let’s first look at starting pitching. The rotation in 2018 was overall a strength for the team in 2018, led by Chris Sale, David Price, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, a bit of Drew Pomeranz, and (after a midseason trade), Nathan Eovaldi. That same group returned in 2019 but due to a combination of injuries and ineffectiveness, their performance was disappointing.

While Rodriguez had a career year in 2019, winning 19 games, every other pitcher regressed. Sale went from 12 wins to 6, Price from 16 to 7, Porcello from 17 to 14 (while giving up a ton of home runs), and Eovaldi from 3 (in half a season) to 2. All but Rodriguez and Porcello battled arm injuries and missed significant amounts of time.  Heading into 2020, the rotation looks to be even worse.

Price was of course sent to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Betts trade while Porcello left as a free agent and signed with the New York Mets. Sale tried to come back this spring after missing the last month and a half of 2019 with elbow issues only to eventually go under the knife for Tommy John surgery.  Eovaldi battled elbow issues and had surgery in April 2019 and bounced between the rotation and bullpen once he finally came back.

That means the only holdovers heading into this season are Rodriguez (who needs to show his stellar 2019 is the norm and not an aberration) and Eovaldi (who has already had Tommy John surgery twice and has never been healthy for a full season). “Supplementing” them, if you want to call it that, in 2020 will be offseason acquisition Martin Perez (yuck) and Red Sox retread Ryan Weber. That’s a huge drop-off in talent between the first two starters and the next two.

It also leaves one spot in the rotation for spot starts or “openers” which leads us to the other area of the team that will doom them in 2020, the bullpen. The bullpen was shaky in 2018 but got the job done, especially in the postseason. That season was closer Craig Kimbrel’s final one in Boston and he went 5-1 with 2.74 ERA, 96 strikeouts, and 42 saves. The knock on the pen in 2018 was that the Sox didn’t have anyone to bridge the gap between the starters and Kimbrel.

The likes of Matt Barnes, Joe Kelly, Ryan Brasier, and Heath Hembree were used to varying degrees of effectiveness, but they came up big that October. That same cast of characters was brought back in 2019 (minus Kimbrel and Kelly, who left in free agency) and the Red Sox decided to go with the same disastrous “closer by committee” approach they used back in 2003.

Indeed, while Brandon Workman led all Red Sox relievers with 10 wins and 16 saves in 2019, everyone else took steps backward. The bullpen was more often than not unable to either preserve a lead or prevent a small deficit from getting larger and had 31 blown saves, good (bad?) for second-worst in the league. With even less talent in the bullpen heading into the 2020 season, it’s going to be ugly.