Red Sox: Who will be the starting pitcher on Opening Day?

Red Sox SP Eduardo Rodriguez:

Back during Spring Training 1.0, it would be considered a no-brainer that Eduardo Rodriguez would start on Opening Day. Even with Chris Sale struggling with pneumonia, it was clear that Rodriguez would probably get the nod after a strong 2019 season.

Now it isn’t so clear what to expect with him. He tested positive for the virus even before he could travel to Boston for Summer Camp. It appears that he is feeling better, which means it is unclear what stage of the virus he is at. Either way, he cannot come to Boston until he is deemed COVID-free.

Rodriguez will have to wait up to two weeks before he can join the team. That means that Rodriguez would not be able to start his pitching routine until one week before Opening Day is supposed to happen. With Opening Day just over two weeks away, that would be cutting it extremely close.

The goal is for him to be ready for the first game of the season, but it is becoming more unlikely by the day that he will be ready to make the start. Hopefully he can travel to Boston as soon as possibly, but right now, no one knows.

Likelihood: Possible

Percent chance: 20%

Red Sox Free agent/Trade:

Really anything can happen in the next three weeks. The Red Sox can definitely use another starter due to the lack of depth.

If for some reason Eduardo Rodriguez can’t play this season or anyone else gets sick or hurt, the Red Sox would be down to three proven starters. The loss of a starter would definitely affect the rotation to a great extent. They already don’t know if Ryan Weber can consistently pitch well out of the rotation. If he can’t, the Red Sox would already have one bullpen game out of every five games.

It seems that the Red Sox are not looking to spend a lot of money in order to avoid the luxury tax. So, the Red Sox making a big signing or trade would not be expected.

If they are looking to sign a starter to a small one-year deal, there are a few pitchers still available. Wei-Yin Chen, Jason Vargas, Danny Salazar, and former Red Sox ace Clay Buchholz are just a few names up to grab. One of these guys can definitely help eat up innings for Boston.

The trade route is another opportunity for the Red Sox to acquire a starter. Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman are two players that the Red Sox could look to get for just the 2020 season.

Ultimately, it’s probably not going to happen unless some active pitcher in the rotation becomes unavailable. Knowing the Red Sox, at this moment, they would probably not want to spend any more money than they have to. They already made it clear that avoiding the luxury tax is a goal of theirs. It isn’t completely out of the question though.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

Percent chance: 5%

Red Sox SP Ryan Weber:

Nothing against Weber, who is now in his second year with the team, but it seems like a lot has to go wrong for him to get the start on Opening Day.

He primarily came out of the bullpen in 2019. He only made three starts for Boston with 18 total appearances. He went 2-4 with a 5.09 ERA. The reason he is in the discussion to make the start Opening Day is due to his Spring Training performance. Red Sox coaches were very high on him after he gave up 0 runs in 9 innings combined during Spring Training. Now, he is being considered the 4th starter.

If he performs well during the season, he can be a solid force out of the rotation. If not, he can either serve as an opener or even be moved to the bullpen. Hopefully, either way, he can help eat up innings for the 2020 Red Sox.

Looking at the rotation, Weber would most likely be considered the 4th or 5th option to start on Opening Day, but don’t count him out. If Rodriguez isn’t available, the Red Sox are already down a starter. Weber could end up being one of the top options if at least another pitcher gets hurt or sick.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

Percent chance: 5%

Red Sox SP Martin Perez:

He is another new face in the Red Sox rotation. As Porcello has gone elsewhere, the Red Sox decided to sign Martin Perez in December of 2019.

In his first eight seasons in the majors (7 with the Rangers and 1 with the Twins), Perez has had 4+ 10-win seasons. He has a combined 4.72 ERA in his career thus far.

He will most likely serve as the No. 3 starter once Rodriguez becomes available. As of right now, however, he might even be labeled the 2nd starter in the rotation to start the season. This gives him a better chance to earn the start on Opening Day in comparison to Weber.

During Spring Training 1.0, he made three starts, going 0-1 with a 1.35 ERA. He gave up 1 earned run in 6.2 innings pitched.

It would help Boston to a great extent if he exceeds expectations out of the rotation. The Red Sox are going to need their starters to step up with Sale, Price, and Porcello all not pitching for them in 2020. With not many notable and familiar players coming out of rotation for the Red Sox this season, Perez has an alright chance of making the start on Opening Day.

Likelihood: Possible

Percent chance: 10%

Red Sox SP Collin McHugh:

McHugh is the third new face in the 2020 rotation. He is a 33-year old most known for his time with the Houston Astros. He played six years with them, having 11+ wins in three of them. He also had a sub-2.00 ERA out of the bullpen in 2018.

The Red Sox signed him back when Spring Training 1.0 was going on. He was most likely signed due to Chris Sale undergoing Tommy John surgery. He was signed to a 1-year deal, worth $600k most likely to be our fifth starting pitcher.

It was reported after the signing that McHugh was still recovering from an elbow injury. That led him to only spend one week at Jet Blue Park before the pandemic shut everything down. With a normal season, it was expected that McHugh would have to miss a significant amount of time due to the elbow strain.

Instead, he began throwing in May and will most likely be ready for Opening Day. He has made appearances at both Fenway Park and Boston College in recent days, throwing with the rest of the pitchers in the organization. If he’s far enough along in his rehab from his injury, expect him to play a key role in Boston this year.

Likelihood: Possible

Percent chance: 10%

Red Sox SP Nathan Eovaldi:

Just like McHugh, Eovaldi is also returning from an injury. After a strong second half and postseason in 2018 with Boston, he dealt with loose bodies in his pitching elbow in the following year.

In 2019, Eovaldi started four games in April, compiling an ERA of 6.00, before the Red Sox announced he would undergo surgery on his right elbow. He missed more time than expected (4-6 weeks was original plan), returning midway through July.

The Red Sox planned on using him as the closer, but he allowed 5 earned runs in 3 and 2/3 innings with 0 saves. Brandon Workman was made the closer again and Eovaldi was moved back to the rotation. He finished the 2019 season with a 5.99 ERA in 23 appearances (12 starts).

When Spring Training 1.0 took place, it looked like 2018 Eovaldi was back and fully healthy. He made three starts and went 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 8 innings combined. After a strong showing in Fort Myers, he came to Spring Training 2.0 and said he’s, “ready to go”.

Recently, he threw three simulated innings of batting practice to hitters like Jonathan Lucroy and Alex Verdugo. Apparently, his fastball was hitting 99 miles per hour on the radar gun. He received plenty of compliments after his showing. Apparently, his session ended with his teammates cheering for him. Roenicke was also impressed by his stuff.

Nasty Nate is supposed to pitch again, in another simulated game on Thursday. If he continues to pitch at the same pace he currently is meant to go on, he would be in line to start Opening Day against the Orioles. Since Evo is lined up to make the start and has shown that he is capable of being “the ace” to start the season, it looks like the Red Sox have made their decision. Hopefully, he can play this season as well as he played in the 2018 Postseason.

With many unknowns between now and July 24, when the Red Sox first take on the Orioles, who knows if the season will even happen? If the shortened season isn’t postponed further, what if players come down with the virus? Nothing is definite, but right now, it looks like the Red Sox have their guy for Opening Day with Rodriguez sidelined until further notice.

Likelihood: Likely

Percent chance: 50%