Red Sox Predictions: Boston’s starting rotation for the 2020 season
The new-look Red Sox starting rotation
In 2018 the Red Sox had one of the absolute best starting rotations in the American League. When the calendar flipped to the postseason they were almost unhittable. Last season, things crashed back to reality and the rotation may have been one of the things that sunk Boston. As we wait for the start of the 2020 campaign things look wildly different than a year ago.
Let’s begin with the top dog of the rotation, Chris Sale. The southpaw will be missing the entire 2020 season and maybe even some of 2021 depending on his rehab and recovery from Tommy John surgery. Boston has lost the number one phone number on their speed dial and will need someone else to call for the most important of games.
Next, we have to turn our attention to the massive departures from the Red Sox rotation, David Price and Rick Porcello. Some of you may scoff at the idea of these two being big losses to the team but they surely are.
Price was the rock before Sale came to town and though he had a disappointing 2019, he’s been pretty strong otherwise. Porcello may not always have the flashiest records, but he’s consistent and reliable to take the ball every five days. His Cy Young in 2016 and postseason outings in 2018 are evidence of this.
With all of that said, we do have some quality arms still left on the team. So let’s get predicting that rotation!
Red Sox No. 1: Eduardo Rodriguez
This one may see the highest of highs and possibly the lowest of lows out of the entire gang here. Eduardo Rodriguez has been a pitcher that has had the word potential hovering over his head since day one. Over the last two-three seasons, we’ve seen him start to hit that potential and it’s been an awesome sight to behold.
Let’s just take a step back and really think about the 2020 season in regards to E-Rod. He went from the sometimes number four, sometimes number five starters in 2018 to number one with a bullet in 2020. It felt like as each week passed in this weird offseason we saw his name rise through the depth chart.
E-Rod had a breakout season in 2019 finishing 19-6 with a 3.81 ERA in 203.1 innings. He led the league in starts (34) and walks (75), ya gotta take the good with the bad here. That was at the number three slot though, now the lights will be shining bright on him as the ace. He was also the only reliable and durable starter the Red Sox had last year, a great sign for his new position.
Now that he’ll be the number one guy for Ron Roenicke I think we may see the best Eduardo yet. Add in the fact that this season will be incredibly short, he may just let it fly all year long. Obviously he won’t get to the statistical heights of 2019, but he could be even better with the handcuffs off. With it being a sprint to the postseason, E-Rod may treat every start like his last and break-through that ceiling of potential to grab the brass ring.
Red Sox No. 2: Nathan Eovaldi
Coming in at number two in the rotation will be right-handed fireballer Nathan Eovaldi. Nasty Nate has been both a pleasure and headache to watch while in Boston. The Red Sox acquired him just ahead fo the 2018 trade deadline and he instantly repaid them for their early faith.
In his second start with Boston, he’d be facing the Yankees at Fenway Park, officially seeing The Rivalry, from both sides. On that night he’d shut the Bronx Bombers down in spectacular fashion instantly earning the support of Red Sox Nation.
In the postseason that year, he’d not only be a reliable starter for Alex Cora but on his off days, he’d go to the bullpen and make himself available for relief, if needed. He’d fully earn his stripes by pitching his arm off in Game 3 of the World Series, though in a losing effort. His heart and determination was all that fans needed to see and never once blamed him for the loss.
The offseason would bring a procedure to remove some loose fragments from his elbow, the second of the kind he’d undergo. Add that to the pair of Tommy John’s that he’s undergone and Nasty Nate was on the shelf for most of 2019. He’d eventually return but to disappointment as it never felt like he could find himself on the mound.
Luckily, an offseason of healing and rest has seemingly brought him back to full strength. During spring training he made two starts over eight innings that ended with just a single hit and 12 strikeouts. His stuff looked electric and if the Red Sox want some success in 2020, they’ll need their No. 2 to come through big.
Red Sox No. 3: Martin Perez
I’ll admit that I don’t know very much about Martin Perez beyond him being a lefty veteran. He’s been in the league for eight years, spending most of that time with the Rangers and then a year with the Twins. Though the Red Sox do play those teams with relative frequency, I honestly can’t recall a time where Perez left an impression on me.
He signed with Boston just before Christmas on a 1-year/$6.25M deal with a team option for 2021. Based on the economics alone, this was a great move by Chaim Bloom. The team was able to secure another veteran arm after they pretty much lost all of theirs, and did so on the cheap.
Perez is a career 4.72 pitcher so he won’t be coming out to tear down any lineups, but he can be a reliable turn man, going from the aces to the back end of the rotation.
I did watch him in spring training this year where he was pretty promising in his outings. He finished 0-1 in three starts with a 1.35 ERA and 10 K’s to just 3 BB’s. Not bad, again as the three-man he isn’t expected to be lights-out every night, he simply has to get the game late to get the bullpen involved.
Red Sox No. 4: Ryan Weber
This one may shock some folks as he isn’t the most popular name in the Red Sox lineup, but I think he’s earned it. Before everything shut down due to the coronavirus Ron Roenicke all but named Ryan Weber as the fourth man in the platoon, so I’ll trust my manager.
Last year was Weber’s first season with Boston after bouncing around the league, playing for four teams in five years. The righty will also turn 30 before the end of the 2020 season which is when clubs stop loving pitchers.
The Sox have him under control until 2025 so this year will be massive for his future. If he does well that could guarantee him a spot with the team next year when things hopefully are closer to normal.
Weber didn’t exactly dazzle in 2019, pitching in just 40.2 innings and ending with a 5.09 ERA, but his spring training was his savior. He made three starts in Fort Myers and went 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 11 K’s, he also didn’t walk a single batter.
This is what motivated Roenicke to want him in the rotation and I can’t disagree. Maybe the right-hander has finally put all of the puzzle pieces together and he can be a sneaky good number four. I’m pulling for the guy as he seems like a wonderful dude and when his confidence is at its peak, he can go.
Red Sox No. 5: The Mystery Man
I toyed around with this one quite a bit over the last few days. The Red Sox have a ton of guys who can slot into the fifth man role and finish off the rotation, but none have separated themselves from the pack. Currently, Boston has guys like Brian Johnson and Marcus Walden who have started but are mostly relegated to bullpen duty. Both are known to be fire when they’re on and ice when they’re not, but can go out and eat innings when called upon.
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There are also a few super cheap free agents still on the board that can come in and be the final man in the order as well. I recently wrote about a pair of such arms in Clay Buchholz and Aaron Sanchez. One is a former Red Sox hero that could have a chance to end his career where it began, and the other is a youngster that could find a serious home in Boston.
It feels like the team is going to go with the opener route as that was non-stop talked about once Bloom was hired. I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen because as I said, there isn’t really anyone that has stepped up. There are plenty of guys that I’m positive would love the opportunity and would try to make the best of it, but nothing as of yet.
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For the Red Sox, this spot could be a throwaway and nothing of concern. But with how their bullpen was so heavily beaten down in 2019, I can’t imagine they’d want to dedicate an entire day to burning through their relievers. I’d like to see Johnson get the call personally, I think he has the potential and can be reliable, but I don’t get paid to make those calls. Hopefully, Ron Roenicke has been stewing over this for the last few months, because he’s going to need a serious plan.