Red Sox projected to select RHP Chris McMahon in Keith Law’s mock draft

A mock draft published on The Athletic predicts that the Boston Red Sox will select pitcher Chris McMahon in the first round of the 2020 draft.

Major League Baseball will hold its annual amateur draft at the originally scheduled time next month but the date is one of the few aspects that hasn’t been changed this year. The number of rounds has been trimmed down significantly, there’s less money available for teams to spend and scouts have been unable to travel to see these future prospects in person. This will be no ordinary draft and these challenges don’t bode well for a Boston Red Sox organization in dire need of rebuilding their farm system.

The Red Sox have the No. 17 overall pick in this year’s draft, their highest selection since they drafted Jay Groome with the 12th pick in 2016. Boston was deprived of a first-round pick last year as punishment for exceeding the highest tier of luxury tax penalties in 2018, bumping their first pick back 10 spots.

Keith Law of The Athletic recently revealed the latest edition of his first-round mock draft. He predicts the Red Sox to select University of Miami right-handed pitcher Chris McMahon.

"“McMahon is one of the safer college arms in the class, with solid performance and mid-rotation potential but without the upside of the college pitchers likely to go ahead of him (as well a few of those behind him, like Cade Cavalli or Cole Wilcox, who have more risk),” writes Law."

McMahon went 7-3 with a 3.28 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 in 22 appearances (20 starts) for the University of Miami. He was dominating this year with a 3-0 record, 1.05 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 13.3 K/9 before the college season was shutdown by the coronavirus pandemic.

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The lack of upside seems discouraging for a first-round pick but it makes sense why the Red Sox would play it safe. Other pitchers available in this draft might have ace potential but they carry more risk of becoming a bust. Boston doesn’t have the best track record of drafting pitchers – they haven’t drafted a true ace since selecting Jon Lester in 2002.

A revamped front office led by Chaim Bloom is now calling the shots but the organization’s history with developing pitching could still leave them erring on the side of caution. The Red Sox farm system desperately needs an infusion of pitching and a dependable mid-rotation starter would suffice if they are considered a safe choice who could help the big league club within a few years.

This year’s draft has been limited to five rounds which makes every selection matter more than it does in a typical draft. Boston lost their second-round pick as punishment for the sign-stealing incident in 2018. While it initially seemed to be a slap on the wrist, this penalty is much harsher in a shortened draft.

The Red Sox can’t afford to whiff on their first pick when they don’t have another opportunity in the next round and have only three more selections remaining after that. A “safe” college arm that they can more easily project would be a sound strategy that reduces the risk of wasting that first-round pick.