Boston Red Sox: Grading the squad before spring training begins
The Boston Red Sox have been reconfigured for 2020 but are still a work in progress. Just how do they grade before camp is in full swing?
Grading is a difficult stratagem especially in the pre-season when the roster is still in flux or in the case of the Red Sox upheaval. Since I spend many waking hours devising ways to use the word tumultuous I will since it certainly is proper usage for the Red Sox thing past winter.
During the year we – the staff at BSI – trade insults via our Google connection to see just who can do the grading clickbait article? The general consensus is mid-season and a final summary, but I will unceremoniously cut the line and do one before the first college team falls victim to the Red Sox at Jet Blue Park.
The major pieces are in place for the spring adventure with the usual number of question marks surfacing regarding various positions and players. Much will be settled baseball science when the real games begin and toes get frostbitten in the north. Getting to that point is always a pathway that will incite or rankle the emotions of Red Sox fans.
Of course, my approach is generally quite broad brush since extensive metrics are personally painful. If exit velocity or spin rate is your key to success then move on. I just look at where the baseball product now sits before the arms fall off or some other misfortune hits the team.
Outfield/DH
How can this still be the best position after losing Mookie Betts? In 2019 the outfield was one of the best in the American League with a 12.0 fWAR. Quite naturally the numbers – offensively and defensively – were spiked by the departed Betts.
What became a statistical drag is two-fold with fold one being Andrew Benintendi and fold two being Jackie Bradley Jr. Nether acquitted themselves offensively in 2019. Having 409.1 innings of defense by J.D. Martinez (-18 UZR/150) and Brock Holt (-10.1 UZR/150) didn’t enhance defensive luster.
The Red Sox have made one savvy move in signing Kevin Pillar on the cheap ($4.25 MM). Pillar is an old hand at the American League East and has a sweet .307 career at his new home. The right-hand swatting Pillar will provide a balance to lefties Benintendi, Bradley, and newcomer Alex Verdugo.
Verdugo has one big plus on Betts and that is Verdugo’s payroll check will be equal to the loose change in Mookie’s Stingray seat cushions. Verdugo has a world of talent especially with the bat, but bat rhymes with back (I think) and that may be a nasty issue this spring.
Since hope springs eternal a healthy Verdugo hitting his LA numbers (.294) would lessen the Betts pain from kidney stone level to root canal.
This spring the outfield has four experienced parts and a fifth in case the Red Sox configures it with Martinez in left or right field. Martinez is best suited for a designated hitter and he is a run-producing machine. The smart move this offseason was Martinez’s decision to remain latched to his $23.750 MM when the market spoke that you have one sweet deal for 2020.
The spring training watch will be the health of Verdugo and if either Benintendi or JBJ are traded.
GRADE: B
INFIELD
Half a loaf aptly describes the Red Sox infield with the left side of Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts making offensive mayhem in 2019. Defensively both improved especially the left-hand hitting Devers who erased my comparisons to Butch Hobson and Joe Foy. A mea culpa from me.
The other half of the loaf may go stale with the merry-go-round potential at first and second base. Michael Chavis flashed bright and then faded. A question mark for sure.
Jose Peraza has been added from the free agent poaching and sunk in 2019 after shining the previous year. Peraza is young, has some speed, and will not kill you defensively at second. The mix also has Jonathan Arauz who may or may not survive spring training.
The last possible entry into the second base puzzle is our own baseball Sisyphus – Dustin Pedroia – pushing that career rock uphill. Odds are the rock will win. So second will be one of the places of media notoriety this spring, but what about first base?
Returning is Mitch Moreland when the Red Sox became beneficiaries of a favorable market. Moreland is a dependable pro who when in reasonable health can provide excellent defense and respectable power.
At 34-years-old Moreland could be assisted by youth. Either Chavis or rookie Bobby Dalbec who hits with power and like Chavis can swing and miss with the best of them. Maybe the Red Sox will get Holt back?
The fresh half loaf is a solid A and that second loaf is a D. The right side of the infield is shaky and that is giving some serious doubt with too many good things needing to fall into place. The eye this spring for me will be Peraza.
The resolution at second base will be the primary focus. Will Dalbec make the team? I’ll be watching Peraza who could be a steal.
GRADE: C
Catching
The catching consists of Christian Vazquez and that other guy. For many a season “other guy” was Sandy Leon and now it is one Kevin Plawecki. Plawecki brings his -0.1 bWAR and .222 average to Boston but far more important in the big picture is Plawecki’s paltry $900,000 salary. If Plawecki comes upon hard times then Juan Centeno is around for another year of enjoying Pawtucket.
Vazquez caught 119 games in 2019 and that number may increase a dozen or so in 2020. What surprised us even in the year of the home run the 23 whacked by Vaz was bordering shocking territory. In fact, Vazquez hovered around .300 until late July. At just 29-years-old and a team-friendly contract Vazquez rates as a pleasant bargain with his 2.2 bWAR.
Naturally, if you focus on the dark side the catching can be the Achilles heel of the team if Vazquez sustains any serious injury or goes into an offensive and defensive funk. The Boston farm system is in need of serious reconstruction and one part of the project is catching talent.
The Red Sox have only one catching prospect in their top-30 prospects and that is Connor Wong the late entry from the pilfering of Betts.
So in an effort to remain positive, the catching duo is solid as spring training begins. Plawecki may not be in the defensive plus of Leon, but close enough to suffice for that once or twice a week he’ll be called upon.
Vazquez is a potential All-Star and is a willing warrior even filling in at third and second base during 2019 without any defensive embarrassment.
The focus will be on catching depth in the minors and possible depth stored at Pawtucket.
GRADE: B
ROTATION
The goodbye club has two entries from 2019 in Rick Porcello and David Price. Porcello contributed innings – mostly forgettable – and Price contributed $32 MM to the payroll for his 22 starts. You know how management feels when they are willing to toss in $48 MM to send you 3,000 miles away.
Everyone needs an ace in their hand be it poker or baseball and the ace – a questionable designation for me – is Eduardo Rodriguez. The long-anticipated corralling of E-Rod’s noted talent finally surface in 2019 with a 19-6 record. A repeat will be needed but entering the spring training evaluation Rodriguez is the centerpiece.
The possible replacement for lefty Price is Lefty Martin Perez who managed 10-7 for the surprising Twins. As with most Red Sox moves this was dictated by his price sticker. Even a 0.2 bWAR will get you $6 MM and a probable rotation lock.
The real issue this spring will be the health watch directed at two hurlers upon whom success or failure rests. Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi will be carefully monitored for any nicks and dents. Does the season hinge upon their collective returns? From my view, they will be the focus thing spring and rightfully so.
Just who or what fills out this rotation? Is Andrew Cashner still available? Is a rookie going to discover sudden pitching magic and win over the day? With Chaim Bloom in charge are the Red Sox going to go the opener route? I see nothing on the pitching horizon either within the system, in available free agents, in trades, or languishing in some baseball outposts such as Korea or Venezuela.
Teams win with pitching and the Red Sox rotation needs a coach with a Hazmat suit. There are far too many good things that must fall into place for the rotation to be a success. Going into spring training this is collectively a staff that borders on Baltimorish for comparison sake.
Just what will be the physical condition of Sale and Eovaldi? Who will round out the rotation?
GRADE: D
BULLPEN
In 2019 the search for a closer sifted through a good portion of the pitching roster before righty Brandon Workman surfaced and become numero uno for 2020. The now official closer of the Red Sox! Will Workman be Heathcliff Slocumb? Will Workman be Craig Kimbrel? His job until he fails and failure is all dependent upon how new manager Ron Roenicke is.
The Red Sox bullpen is not that bad or the Red Sox bullpen is not that good. I lean more towards the good as there is both a fine combination of veterans and youth. With the new multiple batters rule in place, the Red Sox will meld into that routine this spring and I would expect no significant disruption to the bullpen.
The watchful eyes for me will be upon Darwinzon Hernandez as the lefty attempts to find that slice of rubber known as home plate with some degree of consistency. Fellow lefty Josh Taylor became a notable entry into the bullpen mix with 52 games. Both have options so spring could mean a layover at Pawtucket if roster circumstances so dictate.
The Red Sox veteran contingent is led by Matt Barnes who is either loved or vilified game to game. Barnes – a rare pitching product of the farm system – can bring his “Wild Thing” mojo into any given game.
Heath Hembree, Ryan Brasier, Hector Velazquez, and Marcus Walden all have to be considered the early favorites to round out the bullpen. Plenty of others will float quicker. Walden could make some noise it the Red Sox go the opener route.
What to watch this spring? The numbers game will play out with a veteran or two being sent elsewhere. Will the Red Sox bring in an experienced arm?
GRADE: B-
MANAGEMENT
A new manager or manager in waiting on interim manager depending upon which title is placed on Roenicke. Roenicke is no novice and at 63 years-old has experienced the baseball wars at all levels including manager for five years. At his age, his managerial style is set and the big plus in his adventure is he knows the players and they know him.
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Roenicke will be involved in player decisions but at just what level? Will Bloom be the deciding factor? How much leeway and discretion will Roenicke have? Usually, a partnership exists between the manager and GM, but Roenicke is not “Bloom’s guy.” Will that impact?
Bloom will also be in a pothole filling mode as there is certainly work to be done. This latest edition of the Red Sox can contend but are they configured to take it all? That is a stretch to assume the Red Sox will be World Series bound.
So Bloom will also be observed in just how he approaches roster building and filling. The Tampa template is already being followed with payroll constriction and bargain hunting such as Pillar.
Next. Andrew Benintendi says MLB will find no cheating. dark
Hovering in the background is ownership and that means John Henry who makes the final decisions or should be regarding adding and subtracting dollars. Bloom does have some play money, but would Henry allow more with the appearance of a sudden object of affection that could enhance the team as an attraction.
Grade: B