Boston Red Sox have limited options to spend on in 2021
The Boston Red Sox should have no trouble finding room in their budget next offseason. The problem will be figuring out who to spend their money on.
The blockbuster trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers created plenty of financial flexibility for the Boston Red Sox by clearing $75 million in payroll over the next three years. Ownership has achieved their goal of dipping below the luxury tax in 2020 to reset the punitive penalties, allowing them to spend freely again next offseason.
Boston currently has approximately $126.5 million committed to their payroll in 2021, per Spotrac. That accounts for nine players plus the $16 million they owe David Price to pitch in Dodger blue.
The payroll will rise once the salaries of arbitration-eligible players are determined, plus the pre-arb players who will fill out the remainder of the roster. However, the Red Sox could carve out more room in the budget if J.D. Martinez opts-out of his deal ($22 million for luxury tax purposes) or they decline to pick up the club options on Martin Perez ($6 million) and Mitch Moreland ($3 million). Boston could conceivably start next offseason with a payroll under $100 million before factoring in arbitration salaries.
Either way, Boston will have plenty of room below the luxury tax threshold if they decide to open up their checkbooks next winter. The dilemma they will face won’t be a lack of funds in the budget, it’s a lack of star power in next year’s free agency class.
The dream scenario would be bringing Mookie Betts back to Boston following a one year hiatus that allowed the Red Sox to add a few assets in exchange for loaning their superstar to Los Angeles. They will certainly try to enter the Betts sweepstakes but we learned this lesson the hard way with Jon Lester – you don’t trade a star player before they hit free agency and expect them to return.
We have to assume the Red Sox wouldn’t have traded Betts if they were willing to shell out what it would take to retain him. The Dodgers won’t let him slip away after going through so much trouble to acquire him and the leverage is now in their corner. Therefore, luring him back to Boston is a pipe dream.
If they can’t have Betts, who else can the Red Sox chase in free agency next year?
Top available bats
Betts is in a tier by himself int the class of 2021 but the next best bat belongs to George Springer. He set career highs last season with a .292 average, .974 OPS, 39 home runs and a 6.2 WAR. He’s no Mookie Betts but Springer has made three consecutive All-Star appearances, earned a pair of Silver Slugger awards and World Series MVP honors.
Springer has some appeal as an alternative to Betts but he’s also three years older, hitting the market at the age of 31. He won’t demand the money Betts will get but Springer won’t be cheap either and there will be fewer years of his prime remaining when his new deal begins. Many of the suitors for Betts will look at Springer as Plan B and that sets up a scenario where he could receive offers for more than the Red Sox should be comfortable paying.
J.T. Realmuto will be a coveted free agent if the Phillies allow him to hit the open market. He’s the best all-around catcher in baseball with consecutive All-Star appearances and Silver Sluggers to go along with a Gold Glove.
He should easily top the 4-year, $73 million deal that Yasmani Grandal received from the White Sox. Is Realmuto worth it? Of course. Is he a target for a Red Sox team that has Christian Vazquez inked to a team-friendly deal? That’s a bit harder to justify. Vazquez would need to regress significantly from last season’s breakout campaign to convince the Red Sox to move on or relegate him to a backup role.
The same can be said for Marcus Semien. We know the Oakland A’s are unlikely to pay up to keep him but why would the Red Sox target a shortstop when they have Xander Bogaerts for several more years? Semien is a much better defender and coming off an 8.1 WAR season that earned him a third-place finish on the AL MVP ballot. His track record should leave us a little skeptical that Semien is an elite player so let’s see if he can repeat that performance this year. Even if he does, Boston isn’t replacing Bogaerts or asking him to switch positions.
The Yankees struck gold when they signed DJ LeMahieu to a bargain two-year deal last year. The veteran infielder proved he wasn’t a product of Coors Field by hitting .327 with a career-high 26 home runs and 102 RBI in his first year in the Bronx.
LeMahieu won’t fly under the radar next time he hits the market at the age of 32. It’s hard to see the Yankees allowing their division rival to steal him away which means the Red Sox would need to overpay to sign a player on the wrong side of the aging curve.
Upgrading the rotation
Pitching is where the Red Sox need the most help but next year’s class lacks surefire options to boost their rotation.
The top arm projected to be on the market is Trevor Bauer. The right-hander has one stellar season on his resume when he broke out as a Cy Young candidate in 2018. His steep regression following the deal that sent him to Cincinnati is almost as concerning as the reasons why Cleveland gave up on a 28-year old star pitcher. Bauer’s prickly demeanor makes David Price seem friendly by comparison. It’s hard to see how a pitcher with his attitude would fit in Boston.
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Bauer has also stated his intention to sign one-year deals throughout his career to maximize his value. Red Sox fans complained that Betts showed a lack of loyalty by not committing to the franchise long-term. How would they treat a guy who wants to take the rest of his career one year at a time?
Marcus Stroman could earn a big payday if he follows up his first All-Star campaign with another productive season. He spent the majority of his career in Toronto so we know he’s AL East tested. Stroman doesn’t miss a lot of bats though, posting a pedestrian 7.4 K/9 rate for his career. He needs a strong defense behind him in order to thrive. The left side of Boston’s infield is a bit shaky and the outfield defense takes a massive dip with Betts gone and Jackie Bradley Jr. expected to follow him out of town after this season.
Mike Minor, Jake Odorizzi, and Masahiro Tanaka have all shown the ability to be at least a solid No. 2 starter in recent years but they will each be 31 or older when they hit free agency. They could be on the radar on short-term deals but they lack long-term upside.
Smart Spending
The Red Sox shouldn’t splurge in free agency simply because they have money to burn. That’s how they got themselves into the luxury tax hell to begin with.
Throwing a boatload of money at the best available free agents, regardless of how they fit with your roster, is how the Red Sox got stuck with Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. It’s why they ended up giving a record-breaking contract to Price. All of those deals backfired because Boston was too eager to spend money for a quick fix.
A lot can change in a year and we’ll need to reevaluate options when the time comes. Perhaps it makes sense to go all in if this year’s team exceeds expectations to convince the front office they are only one move away from a championship. The pool of free agents could grow to include more enticing options if players opt-out of deals or club options aren’t picked up. The trade market could open an alternative path to acquiring a new star.
Areas of need entering 2020. dark. Next
Boston’s newfound financial freedom has opened up a number of different possibilities to improve the roster in the long run. They sacrificed a lot to put themselves in this position so they can’t waste it with an ill-advised decision on a player who isn’t a clear fit for the sake of making a splash to “win” the offseason. Red Sox fans don’t like hearing it, but sometimes patience really is a virtue.