Red Sox Rumors: Dodgers can assemble best Mookie Betts trade package
The Dodgers have the assets to deliver a better trade package for Mookie Betts than the Padres if the Red Sox are willing to make a deal.
After months of debate regarding the future of Mookie Betts, we may finally be nearing a resolution. It started as a pipe dream for hopeful suitors but an offseason of turmoil combined with outrageous contract extension demands appears to have put the Boston Red Sox on the verge of dealing the former MVP.
A pair of NL West rivals have been heavily tied to these trade rumors of late. While the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers have both been in contact with the Red Sox about acquiring Betts, it’s the latter team that has the chips to make the best offer.
The San Diego Union-Tribune reported earlier this week that the Padres were on the verge of “essentially going all in” for Betts. According to their sources, the Padres are willing to include outfielder Manuel Margot or Josh Naylor and starting pitcher Cal Quantrill or Joey Lucchesi in addition to at least one prospect. Right-hander Luis Patino and catcher Luis Campusano are among the prospects the Red Sox are rumored to have interest in.
Here’s the twist though – the Padres are insisting that they dump the $61 million owed to Wil Myers over the next three years. Naturally, the Red Sox balked at absorbing that albatross contract for an underachieving player and the sides have been haggling over how much of Myers’ salary the Padres would need to eat in order to make the deal palatable.
The Dodgers can make a much cleaner deal. They have the payroll flexibility to afford the $27 million Betts is owed in his final season before hitting free agency. They don’t need to ask Boston to take back a bad contract.
Andy McCullough of The Athletic reports that the Dodgers remain engaged with the Red Sox about a trade for Betts and sheds light on what they may be willing to offer. Los Angeles won’t put their top two prospects on the table but their deep farm system has several desirable assets and their major league-ready talent is more appealing than what San Diego is offering.
Let’s compare the best trade packages these teams could realistically offer based on these reports. We’re assuming that the Padres won’t give up MacKenzie Gore, the best pitching prospect in baseball and ranked No. 5 overall in MLB Pipeline’s rankings. Likewise, the Dodgers aren’t going to include Gavin Lux (No. 2) or Dustin May (No. 23). As great as Betts is, it’s unreasonable to expect any team to give up those coveted assets for a one-year rental.
Padres best potential offer
Wil Myers, Manuel Margot, Joey Lucchesi , Luis Patino, Luis Campusano
Myers has negative trade value coming off a season when he produced a below-average 95 OPS+ while being tied to an expensive contract. Escaping Petco Park for a hitter-friendly environment could awaken his slumping bat but his inclusion is a pure salary dump from the Padres perspective.
The Red Sox would want at least one of San Diego’s top-50 prospects for Betts and it should require two if they agree to take even half of Myers’ salary. Including both Patino (No. 27) and Campusano (No. 50) might convince the Red Sox to stomach paying a portion of the Myers’ contract.
Margot is the more appealing major league outfielder of the pair reportedly being offered, at least in part because of Boston’s familiarity with him. He was one of the prospects shipped to San Diego in the Craig Kimbrel trade. Margot doesn’t hit for average and his bat doesn’t have much pop but he has the speed to be a threat on the base paths and plays a solid center field. He could replace Jackie Bradley Jr. if he bolts in free agency next winter and the Red Sox could revisit plans to trade their center fielder if they brought in Margot.
Quantrill and Lucchesi are both back of the rotation options at this early stage of their careers. Quantrill has two more years of control but Lucchesi has shown more upside at the major league level.
A starting center fielder, a No. 5 starter and two top-50 prospects is a solid haul for one year of Betts, although it’s not one the Red Sox are jumping at when you factor in the dead weight of Myers.
Dodgers best potential offer
Alex Verdugo, Tony Gonsolin, Josiah Gray, Keibert Ruiz
Alex Verdugo was one of the top prospects in the Dodgers farm system before finally getting meaningful playing time in Los Angeles last season. He struggled in brief stints over the previous two years but flashed his potential by hitting .294 with a .817 OPS and 3.1 WAR in 106 games. He’s capable of covering all three outfield positions and posted an impressive 13 defensive runs saved.
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With Betts taking up a spot in a crowded Dodgers outfielder, Verdugo may be deemed expendable. He’s no Mookie Betts but the tantalizing upside is there. He comes with five years of control and won’t be arbitration eligible until 2022.
Tony Gonsolin impressed in his rookie campaign, posting a 2.93 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 8.3 K/9 in 40 innings split between the rotation and bullpen. He was ranked sixth in the Dodgers system last year before graduating from prospect status. Gonsolin has a high ceiling with a floor that projects as at least a middle of the rotation starter.
Josiah Gray (No. 67) is a right-handed pitcher who has dominated in the lower levels of the minor leagues with a strong 10.2 K/9. He generates swings and misses with a fastball that explodes near the plate and a developing slider. Gray has rocketed up prospect rankings since he was selected out of college by the Cincinnati Reds in the second round of the 2018 draft.
Keibert Ruiz (No. 73) is a switch-hitting catcher who makes solid contact from both sides of the plate and has shown impressive raw power from the left side. He might not have as much upside as San Diego’s top catching prospect, Campusano, but Ruiz is among the best catching prospects in baseball.
Why the Dodgers deal is better
San Diego’s prospects rate higher so if they are willing to include both Patino and Campusano then their package has to be considered if Boston’s priority is to restock the farm system.
The Red Sox presumably want to at least give their fans the impression that they intend to remain competitive even if they trade one of the best players in baseball. In that case, the major-league talent matters.
Verdugo can step right into right field to replace Betts. He can’t replace his MVP-caliber production (few can) but Verdugo is capable of a 4.0+ WAR season that would put him on the fringe of All-Star consideration, similar to Andrew Benintendi‘s breakout 2018 season.
Gonsolin could immediately supplant Martin Perez as the No. 5 starter and potentially move up the rotational hierarchy given the shaky health status of their top pitchers. The Red Sox could use Gonsolin out of the bullpen if they want to monitor his workload while giving him the occasional spot start. His long-term upside would be in the rotation and if he were still eligible for prospect status he’d rank far higher than any pitcher in the Red Sox farm system.
Gray and Ruiz might not be on the same level as the Padres prospects but they are still two of the top 100 prospects in baseball. Both have bright futures and would improve the depth of a thin Red Sox farm system that counts Triston Casas (No. 77) as their only prospect in the MLB Pipeline rankings.
If the Price is right
The other significant factor in favor of the Dodgers is their offer doesn’t include taking back a bad contract. Shedding the $27 million Betts is owed while replacing him with pre-arbitration salaries gets the Red Sox within striking distance of the luxury tax threshold. Absorbing even a portion of the Myers contract from San Diego puts them further from that goal while clogging future payroll.
The trump card that could put the Dodgers well over the top is the scenario mentioned in The Athletic’s report in which David Price joins Betts in Los Angeles. McCullough’s article suggests the Dodgers lack incentive to take on the $96 million remaining on Price’s deal even if it lands them Betts since they are already a strong contender without adding another superstar.
Rival executives say they would not value Price at more than $15 million per season. Perhaps the Dodgers consider including Price in the deal if the Red Sox cover approximately half his contract. Subtracting more than $40 million in payroll easily gets Boston out of tax territory and saves them $30 million over the next two seasons.
He’s overpaid and has some injury red flags but a healthy Price is still a very good pitcher. The Dodgers know this since Price arguably should have been the World Series MVP when he helped lead the Red Sox to a victory over them in 2018. He’s a clear upgrade in their rotation and helps put the Dodgers over the top.
If the Dodgers can be talked into including one more prospect, such as infielder Jeter Downs (No. 44), in exchange for packaging Betts and Price together, this trade is a slam dunk for the Red Sox. They unload a ton of salary, avoid the tax and add a handful of young, talented players.
The Red Sox would be taking a clear step back in 2020 and potentially spoiling any chance they have of signing Betts to a long-term deal next winter. This may be a necessity at this point. The Red Sox are a rudderless ship heading for spring training without a manager. They have plenty of talent but too many question marks to be considered more than a fringe contender entering the season. Their farm system lacks star talent that is anywhere near major league ready.
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Trading Betts would hurt. Giving him away in a salary dump, even one that rid’s them of Price’s contract, would be shameful. It should take an impressive haul to pry Betts out of Boston but the Dodgers have the assets to get it done without surrendering their best prospects or weakening their chances to contend in 2020.