Red Sox: New Statcast data shows defensive improvement from Rafael Devers

Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers might be a better defensive player than we thought, according to new Statcast data.

The only thing holding Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers back from being considered a true superstar is his shaky glove work in the field. The next step for the 23-year old is manning the hot corner without being viewed as a liability. According to new defensive metrics recently brought to light, Devers might not be a poor defensive player after all.

The most glaring weakness in his defensive performance last season was his habit of piling up errors. Devers led the majors at his position with 22 errors and his .949 fielding percentage ranked last among players with 125+ appearances at third base.

Fielding percentage is a rather archaic way of evaluating defensive performance. Avoiding errors is clearly an important aspect of playing defense but it doesn’t tell the full story. Modern advanced metrics have been utilized to dig deeper into these evaluations but stats such as Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating are far from perfect.

Devers has never fared well in the eyes of these metrics. Last season, he was near the bottom of the majors at his position with -6 DRS and merely average with 2.7 UZR. Combine that with his disappointing fielding percentage and it’s easy to see how Devers developed a reputation as a poor defensive player.

Perhaps it’s time to adjust how we rate defensive performances. That’s what Statcast has done with a metric called Outs Above Average. An overview of this statistic can be viewed on MLB.com but here’s a quick rundown of how this statistic is measured:

• How far the fielder has to go to reach the ball (“the intercept point”)
• How much time he has to get there
• How far he then is from the base the runner is heading to
• On force plays, how fast the batter is, on average

The main takeaway is that Outs Above Average is a range-based metric that accounts for the number of plays made and the difficulty of them. One key aspect is that it measures a player’s range without penalizing them for the speed of the base runner. Sometimes you can do everything the right way but a runner with elite speed can still beat out an infield single.

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This metric also takes defensive shifts into account. Stats such as UZR are calculated based on predetermined assumptions of where a player should be able to cover at their position but the increased use of infield shifts has led to players often being outside of their natural spot on the field.

Based on this new metric tailored toward evaluating modern defenses, Devers surprisingly rates among the best at his position. According to Statcast data provided by Baseball Savant, Devers ranks fourth among major league third basemen with 7 OAA. That still places him well behind the elite class of Nolan Arenado (17 OAA) and Matt Chapman (14 OAA) – those guys are Gold Glove winners for a reason – but Devers still fares well among his peers.

The progress of the young Red Sox third baseman can be tracked with this statistic. Devers had one of the largest improvements of any position player last year, jumping from -7 OAA in 2018 to +7 OAA last season. Devers struggled defensively in his fist full season but his hard work is clearly paying off.

The visual charts provided by Statcast provide deeper insight into where Devers has shown the most improvement. He struggled in 2018 when fielding the ball further back from the plate but was among the best at his position with 3 OAA on these plays last season. He remains a bit below-average when charging in on plays with -1 OAA. Devers moves very well laterally toward first base (9 OAA) but has a hard time moving toward third base (-4 OAA).

Devers still has room to grow but his progress is encouraging. Many of the errors he committed were early in the season so he showed improvement in that area as the season progressed and he should naturally improve with more experience. We can’t ignore the downside that other defensive metrics point out but OAA shows there a positive signs. If Devers can avoid the mental lapses that lead to many of his errors, he has the tools to develop into a solid third baseman.