Red Sox: Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers rising up rankings at loaded positions

Ranking the shortstops

Bogaerts rates the higher of the two Red Sox infielders, ranking fifth among MLB shortstops on Olney’s list. While that may seem low considering he finished fifth in the AL MVP race last season, it’s a fair placement when you consider who finished ahead of him.

An ankle injury slowed Francisco Lindor to begin last season but he recovered to produce a stat line quite similar to his career levels. The Indians shortstop has hit .275/.345/.512 over the last three years with 32+ home runs in each of them. He’s a two-time Silver Slugger and won his second career Gold Glove last season. Lindor is a worthy choice to top the list of shortstops.

Marcus Semien may not be a household name but he’s an elite all-around talent. He’s always been a strong defensive player and that’s a significant factor in his 8.1 WAR that ranked fourth among position players. A career-high 33 home runs and .882 OPS proved he has the offensive prowess to leap into the MVP discussion.

Trevor Story‘s offensive production is heavily inflated by playing at Coors Field – his OPS dropped from 1.064 at home last season to .767 on the road. It’s not as if Fenway is a pitcher’s paradise though. Bogaerts is a better hitter in a vacuum but Story’s edge in defense and base running metrics still puts him slightly ahead.

Bogaerts (5.2 WAR) had a better 2019 season than Javier Baez (4.8 WAR). However, Baez was the runner-up for NL MVP the previous season and brings a better glove to the infield. He has the advantage for now but Bogaerts is gaining. His extreme tendencies to swing at pitches outside the zone could leave Baez prone to slumps that would shrink the gap even further.

That leaves Bogaerts in the fifth spot. He’s ahead of Carlos Correa, a former top prospect who has shown flashes while battling through injuries the last few years. Jorge Polanco (5.8 WAR) can make a case for moving up the list but his breakout campaign was significantly better than anything he’s produced before. Without more of a track record, Bogaerts is clearly still ahead of him.

Ranking the third basemen

Devers is only seventh on Olney’s list of third basemen but that speaks to the depth of the position.

Alex Bregman is an obvious choice to lead the list at the hot corner. He was the runner-up for AL MVP and led his position with a 1.015 OPS, 8.4 WAR and 168 wRC+ last season.

It’s easy to see why Anthony Rendon was the prize of this year’s free-agent class. He led the majors with 126 RBI and his 1.010 OPS was sixth, trailing only Bregman among third basemen. That earned him the second Silver Slugger Award of his career and he finished third in NL MVP voting.

Nolan Arenado has made five consecutive All-Star appearances with four Silver Slugger Awards in that span. He also gets a Coors Field boost but his home/road splits aren’t quite as extreme as they are with Story. Arenado has won seven consecutive Gold Gloves so there’s no doubting his value regardless of his inflated offensive production.

Matt Chapman‘s offensive numbers trail the elite options but a power spike that led to a career-high 36 home runs gives his bat a bit more recognition. He’s arguably the best defensive player at any position so his high ranking is warranted.

Now we’re venturing into the territory where we can make an argument for Devers being higher on the list.

Josh Donaldson had a strong bounce-back season after a 2018 campaign spoiled by injury. His .259 batting average was well below his normal level but he drew enough walks to raise his OBP above Devers, who was in the batting title race. Both players had similar power numbers. Donaldson’s superior defense and track record place him ahead of Devers for now but not for much longer. Would you rather have the 34-year old Donaldson or the 23-year old Devers for the long-term? That’s an easy choice.

Kris Bryant is another former MVP who successfully worked his way back from an injury-plagued 2018 season. His offensive production was also very similar to Devers last season but unlike Donaldson, Bryant’s glove doesn’t give him a clear advantage. Devers was more valuable last season than Bryant’s 3.6 WAR. Ranking Bryant ahead of Devers seems based more on reputation than where their value currently stands.

How they climb higher

Bogaerts and Devers are already among the best at their positions at the plate. They are extra-base hitting machines who can hit for average and drive in runs.

To join the elite class, both will need to improve defensively. The top of the rankings at both of these positions are populated with Gold Glove candidates and the Red Sox infield duo isn’t close to being in that conversation.

Bogaerts makes enough flashy plays to convince the casual observer that he passes the eye test but the advanced metrics aren’t convinced. He ranked dead last among qualified MLB shortstops with -21 defensive runs saved and he was in the middle of the pack with 1.1 UZR. He doesn’t pile up a ton of errors but that’s because you can’t be charged with one if you never got to the ball to begin with. Xander’s range is among the worst at his position.

The designated hitter role may be in Devers’ future if he doesn’t polish his glove skills. No third baseman committed more than the 22 errors that Devers was charged with last season. His -6 defensive runs saved put him ahead of only three other qualified third basemen. Devers was a butcher with the glove early in the season before showing improvement in the second half. He’ll need to carry that into next season by avoiding the mental lapses that lead to frustrating mistakes.

There probably aren’t any Gold Gloves in their future but both Red Sox infielders have the tools to become solid defenders. Combine that with their prolific bats and they both have the potential to reach that elite class at their positions.