Red Sox Predictions: Where will they rank in the AL East in 2020
The Red Sox had a mixed bag of a season in 2019 and their third place finish represented that. Where do they stand after last year’s disappointment?
After cruising to the World Series in 2018, the Boston Red Sox crumbled under lofty 2019 expectations. Headlined by injuries in the starting rotation, there was a plague of regression and disappointment surrounding the season. With few positives coming from this past season and the competition sure to improve, the Red Sox will have to take serious steps forward to get back to the postseason.
A sure bet not to land in last place, that will go to the Orioles, the other three teams in Boston’s division are quality teams that can possibly post better records than the Red Sox. The Yankees and Rays both played in the postseason, ultimately both falling to the Astros. The Blue Jays are a dark horse candidate for 2020 as they are an up and coming team with powerful new players.
All teams but the Orioles pose a legit concern for Boston in the standings headed into next season. Ultimately, some teams are bigger threats than others, but the AL East will definitely be a competitive season this upcoming season.
With that in mind, let’s analyze the four teams that have a chance to be division and/or Wild Card contenders headed into the 2020 season. Each slide will have a prediction for their 2020 record and rank in the standings.
Toronto Blue Jays
If you judge the Blue Jay’s just by their major-league output last season (67-95) you wouldn’t believe me when I say that they are serious Wild Card contenders headed into the 2020 season. Toronto has a loaded talent pool full of young players with an unfair amount of potential.
Headlined by rookies Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio, they should seemingly be ready to take the next step forward. Many of the young Toronto players got their feet wet last season in their first stint in the majors. This new, young core that has been brought to the majors definitely showed glimpses that they are a legitimate team for this next season.
Guerrero Jr. put on a show in the Home Run Derby this past season. He didn’t win the tournament, but he crushed nearly 100 home runs at the end, a record. Bichette only played 46 games in his rookie campaign, but he posted a 2.1 WAR. He would have had a 6-WAR season if he participated in a full 162 game season at that pace.
The Blue Jays have a few questions headed into the 2020 regular season – will their young core take the next step forward and will the starting rotation be able to supplement the powerful offense?
I believe the Blue Jays roster will be spoiled with All-Stars next season as I am definitely a believer in their youngsters such as Guerrero Jr. and Bichette. However, I don’t think Toronto will progress to the point to where they are threatening the top three in the division.
While there will definitely be lots of progression in this upcoming 2020 season, and their record will reflect it, they won’t move up in their division ranking. Still, they could be similar to the 2017-2018 Atlanta Braves (72-90 to 90-72).
Prediction: Blue Jays record (81-81); 4th place in AL East
Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays have sneakily been one of the top teams over the past two seasons. After missing the 2018 postseason (90-72 record), they came back strong once again and snagged a spot in the 2019 AL Wild Card game (96-66 record).
With one of the lowest payrolls in all of baseball, they seem to have an organization that can be serious contenders for the next several years. Built on a quietly dominant starting rotation (Charlie Morton, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow), and the best bullpen in baseball (3.66 ERA). A quirky offense containing quietly solid performers (Aledmys Diaz, Willy Adames, and Kevin Kiermaier).
The Rays don’t have the big name stars that the Blue Jays, Red Sox, or Yankees have, but they ride their effective pitching and revolutionary opener strategy to win close games. Tampa has never had the most star players and they have shown their resourcefulness and creativity that leads them to victory.
The main problem the Rays face is their lack of a powerful offense. They were 18th in MLB in runs in the past 2019 season which is not great for a postseason contending team. This past season they were able to ride their dominant bullpen to the postseason.
However, with the Red Sox set to be postseason contenders once again in 2020, along with the Blue Jays and Indians, their offense will have to step it up in this next season. Even with a reduced record, I predict the Rays will still find a way to return to the postseason in 2020.
Prediction: Rays (89-73 record); 3rd place in AL East
Boston Red Sox
With the Rays regression, Blue Jays failure to take a serious stride forward, and the Yankees continuation of dominance, I feel very confident the Red Sox can slide into the second spot in the division.
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If Betts is retained for the 2020 season and gets back to his MVP form, along with Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, and Rafael Devers picking up their All-Star caliber forms once again, they can find their way back to the postseason.
The key for Boston will be getting the starting rotation to stay on the field and be effective. As mentioned for the millionth time, if Chris Sale, David Price, and Nathan Eovaldi can pitch at their 2018 form, the Red Sox will be a top team again. The offense was fine this past season, fourth in MLB, but the rotation faltered. With more stress on the bullpen, it crumbled for the first few months of the season which led to a hole Boston was unable to dig themselves out of.
Overall, the Red Sox should be able to learn from the failures of the 2019 season and come back even stronger and dominate the 2020 season. While it is wishful thinking to expect them to win the division, it is reasonable to expect them to be playing in the AL Wild Card game.
Prediction: Red Sox (95-67 record); 2nd in AL East
New York Yankees
The Yankees dealt with over 30 injured-list stints last season and still managed to win 103 games. Their outstanding record can be attributed to a dominant bullpen that can make close games a near-guarantee win. Organizational depth, something the Red Sox lack (as evident by the poor starting pitcher replacements), kept the Yankees afloat the entire season.
While they did lose in the ALCS to the Astros, they are a sure bet to come back stronger (please not Gerrit Cole, please no) in 2020 and the Yankees are the heavy favorite to win the AL East. After this past season there is little reason to believe the Red Sox can leapfrog their rivals to the division title.
With holes in the starting rotation and health concerns in the outfield, the Bronx Bombers definitely have some kinks in their armor headed into this next season. With more than $250 million still locked up in Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks set to miss the 2020 season, New York can’t fix their health issues in the outfield. Instead, Brian Cashman’s main focus will most likely be bulking up the starting rotation.
With Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Gerrit Cole and plenty of others being connected to the Yankees, it seems certain the rotation will see some improvement. With seemingly every player injured last season (albeit many players over-performed) plus another top starter, it seems pretty likely that they will repeat as AL East champions and improve their record from 2019 to 2020.
The Red Sox compare pretty well to New York still, though. If healthy, Boston could have a better rotation if pitchers like Chris Sale and David Price can find their form. While they won’t outduel New York’s bullpen, the Red Sox have an offense that is comparable.
The Yankees rely heavily on home runs, mashing more than 300 in 2019, and with a less juiced ball next season, the Red Sox could have a better offense. While the Red Sox certainly have pop in their lineup they have more complete hitters. For example, Mookie Betts hits for average, speed, and power while Aaron Judge relies primarily on power. J.D. Martinez hits for a high average, walks, and mashes balls, (and plays a whole season) while Stanton relies mostly on his otherworldly power.
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Overall, the Yankees are looking solid headed into 2020. The key for them to repeat as AL East champions will be for Brian Cashman to improve the starting rotation and the trainers getting their players on the field.