Boston Red Sox Bullpen: Breakdown of a quietly solid group
The Boston Red Sox bullpen was expected to be a major flaw of the team in 2019, but the group quietly put together a solid campaign.
Entering the 2018 season, many expected the Boston Red Sox bullpen to be abysmal. However, the numbers show that was not the case. The group quietly was a strength of the team.
Before the season, most expected the Red Sox to have two reliable relievers, Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier. Brasier struggled but the bullpen was still solid. Brandon Workman, Josh Taylor, Darwinzon Hernandez, and Marcus Walden all had breakout seasons, giving the Red Sox a solid core of five different relievers.
In addition to these five, the Red Sox have other pitchers with legitimate upside. We know what Brasier is capable of. Travis Lakins and Mike Shawaryn showed upside this year their farm system includes Durbin Feltman, the highly touted relief pitching prospect who figured it out at the end of the year in AA.
Colten Brewer also has tools that could help him break out under the new leadership from Chaim Bloom. They also have serviceable long-relief options in Hector Velazquez and Brian Johnson. There is also the possibility of a free agent signing. This gives the Red Sox a multitude of options in relief and if Bloom operates as he did in Tampa, the Red Sox could see big breakouts from a lot of these guys.
Overall on the season, the bullpen was 8th in FIP, 10th in xFIP, and 1st in K/9. Many will point to the major league-leading 31 blown saves and claim that shows the bullpen is weak, but the Yankees are considered to have one of the best bullpens in baseball and they blew 28. The amount of blown saves is really not an accurate way to evaluate a bullpen. Here is the breakdown of the bullpen as the off-season gets moving.
Locks for 2020:
- RH Matt Barnes; 3.78 ERA, 3.28 FIP
- RH Brandon Workman; 1.88 ERA, 2.46 FIP
- RH Marcus Walden; 3.81 ERA; 3.69 FIP
- LH Josh Taylor; 3.04 ERA, 3.11 FIP
- LH Darwinzon Hernandez; 4.45 ERA, 2.75 FIP
During the season, these five proved to be a really solid core for the bullpen. However, I want to focus on the two lefties. On March 24, 2018, the Red Sox announced that Deven Marrero did not make the roster and was traded to Arizona for cash considerations or a player to be named later. It ended up being the latter and the Red Sox acquired unknown lefty pitcher Josh Taylor. He struggled his first year in the minors for the Red Sox, but after a strong start to the season in the minors in 2019, he was promoted on June 14 and was never sent back down.
Taylor ended up being a pleasant surprise for the team. In 47 1/3 innings, he posted a 3.04 ERA, 3.11 FIP, and 11.8 K/9. He kept hard contact to a minimum at 28.9 percent and hitters managed just a .285 xWOBA against him, per Baseball Savant. He and his left-handed counterpart really began to form a dominant lefty duo in the bullpen by the end of the year.
The other lefty is Hernandez. He opened up the season as one of the Red Sox top prospects and after a strong spring, there was some talk of him making the Opening Day roster in the bullpen. He was sent to AA to continue his development as a starter and much like previous years, control issues haunted him.
In Portland, he walked 7.7 per 9 and in Pawtucket, he walked 8.5 per 9. As a reliever in the majors, walks were still an issue at 6.9 BB/9, but as a reliever, it is much easier to limit or prevent damage from walks than as a starter.
If you look past the walks, his numbers were outstanding. Hernandez posted a 16.6 K/9 as a reliever and did not allow a single barrel all season. Among relievers with at least 50 batted ball events (BBE), Hernandez is one of two to allow 0 (he had 61 BBE). Hernandez will definitely be a key part of next year’s bullpen (assuming he continues to be a reliever) and could potentially be the team’s future closer.
As for the three righties, Workman had a stunning bounce-back season where he was one of the best relievers in baseball, Barnes hit some bumps this year but overall was solid and Walden finally got an extended chance as a 30-year-old rookie and was good. These three will definitely be in next year’s bullpen and Workman will likely be the closer on opening day.
On the bubble:
- RH Ryan Brasier; 4.85 ERA, 4.42 FIP
- RH Colten Brewer; 4.12 ERA, 4.71 FIP
- RH Heath Hembree; 3.86 ERA, 4.78 FIP
- RH Travis Lakins; 3.86 ERA, 3.64 FIP
- RH Hector Velazquez; 5.43 ERA, 4.74 FIP
- LH Brian Johnson; 6.02 ERA, 5.32 FIP
After the five core guys, the depth really starts to thin out. After a magic 2018 season, 2019 was a disaster for Brasier. He never really got on track and lost his role in the bullpen and was eventually sent down.
Velazquez and Johnson both really struggled as long relievers.
It has now been six years since Heath Hembree made his debut for the Red Sox and everyone knows what he is at this point, a mediocre reliever who is not reliable in high leverage spots but is fine for the middle innings or to eat innings. He will have to earn a spot onto the roster and could be a non-tender candidate this off-season.
Lakins made his debut pretty early on but had one outing in a tie game in the 9th where he could not find the strike zone and allowed two runs in one inning. He was sent down following this. In 12 appearances the rest of the way he was solid, posting a 2.76 ERA and 3.40 FIP. This after a solid year in the minors after switching to a reliever. Lakins also has the ability to throw multiple innings.
Brewer does not have any record of statistical success like Lakins. However, Brewer offers some qualities that are intriguing. He has one of the best spin rates in baseball, a quality in which smarter teams have been able to work with and make pitchers elite. He is the type of pitcher that in Tampa flourished with Bloom part of the front office. Hitters had a .352 wOBA against him but their .329 xWOBA suggests that he ran into some bad luck. He also allowed very little hard contact.
Like many other relievers, Brewer struggles with walks and will need to cut those down to earn a prominent role because he does not strike enough guys out to erase his mistakes.
On the outside looking in:
- Trevor Kelley
- Mike Shawaryn
- Bobby Poyner
- Ryan Weber
- Austin Maddox
All of these guys will likely start the season in AAA. Trevor Kelley was solid in AAA last year but really struggled in minimal innings in the majors. He has an interesting arm slot and with last year’s AAA success he is someone to keep an eye on.
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Bobby Poyner showed the ability to pitch in the majors in 2018, but with the emergence of Hernandez and Taylor, he seems stuck in AAA for now unless someone gets hurt.
Shawaryn was off to a good start to his career but after a collapse in London was sent down to AAA and never really found his footing in the majors again.
Ryan Weber made 18 appearances for the Red Sox this season, including three starts, but really does not offer much upside and likely will not play a major role in the 2020 season. Expect him to have a similar role as a spot starter and inning eater. He has a solid chance to pass Velazquez and/or Johnson on the spot start order.
An interesting name here is Austin Maddox. In 2017, he was fantastic, posting a 0.52 ERA and a 2.64 FIP in 17.1 innings. He pitched very little in the minors in 2018 and struggled while dealing with shoulder problems. He ended up undergoing shoulder surgery at the end of the year and missed all of 2019. Now looking towards 2020, he is getting healthy and should compete for a spot in the bullpen. He will be a very interesting name to watch in Spring Training.
Last season, the long relief duo really struggled, unlike in 2018 where they both were serviceable. This could open up an opportunity for Weber to make a few starts. The Red Sox will need to fill at least one rotation spot with the likely departure of Rick Porcello and a possible second with a potential trade, but it seems highly unlikely that they fill that spot with Johnson, Velazquez, or Weber. Expect it to be filled with a free agent or top prospect.
Prospect depth:
- RH Durbin Feltman
- RH Matthew Gorst
- RH Tanner Houck
Tanner Houck is one of the Red Sox top pitching prospects and moved to the bullpen towards the end of last in preparation to possibly join the Red Sox bullpen for the postseason. Obviously, the Red Sox failed to make the postseason and it seems they still intend for Houck to be a starter long term. He could potentially be the fifth starter to open the season but the Red Sox could sign a free agent to fill that spot.
Matthew Gorst finished last year in AAA and posted a 2.70 ERA in a very small sample size.
Durbin Feltman was the Red Sox third-round pick in 2018 and came in with massive expectations. He was dominant in 2018 but hit a wall last year. For most of the year, he did not have feel for his slider, his best pitch, but found it towards the end of the year. He will likely get to AAA at some point and could have a shot at the majors this year with massive upside.
Next. Five affordable free agent starting pitchers. dark
The only one with any shot to make the opening day roster out of these three is Houck. He has upside as a starter and if the Red Sox trust him, he could crack the rotation fairly early. If Feltman can regain his dominance from 2018 he could wind up in the majors pretty fast. However, that is a big if. Gorst is probably the least likely of these three to see the majors this season though he is someone to watch in the minors.