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Five critical individual stats Red Sox must improve in 2020

By Tim Starr

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - APRIL 09: The Boston Red Sox stand for the national anthem before the home opener against the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park on April 09, 2019 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - APRIL 09: The Boston Red Sox stand for the national anthem before the home opener against the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park on April 09, 2019 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 03: Chris Sale #41 of the Boston Red Sox walks in from the bullpen before the start of the game against the New York Yankees during game one of a double header at Yankee Stadium on August 03, 2019 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 03: Chris Sale #41 of the Boston Red Sox walks in from the bullpen before the start of the game against the New York Yankees during game one of a double header at Yankee Stadium on August 03, 2019 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

Chris Sale was the 2019 Opening Day starter for the Red Sox, and his performance showed what was to come for the Red Sox. By the end of April, Sale was winless, and Eduardo Rodriguez was starting to emerge as the ace of the staff.

Sale did eventually get his first win and he started to pitch a lot better. However, he soon fell down again – one step forward, one step back, basically defining the 2019 Red Sox. Fast forward to August and Sale began to find his form again.

In his final two starts of August, Sale fired 14.2 innings with a 1.84 ERA. Then, it was revealed that Sale would be shut down for six weeks, ending his regular season. Luckily, he won’t need Tommy John surgery, but there is no guarantee that his elbow is 100 percent.

Ignoring the risk of Sale, assuming he’ll be good to go for 2020, there is one clear area of improvement – wins. The Conductor had a bad season when looking at standard metrics such as ERA (4.40), but when you dig deeper into advanced statistics, his season wasn’t awful.

For example, he had a 3.39 FIP. While that is the highest of his career, that is a really good season for many pitchers. Just for reference, Justin Verlander, the front runner for the AL Cy Young, had a 3.27 FIP in 2019. That shows that the lefty was actually really unlucky in 2019 and if he performs close to his 2019 level next season, he should put up solid numbers.

Still, saying Sale was lucky doesn’t fix the problem at hand. He was very accountable after his losses in saying that he has to win more, but that doesn’t fix the problem either. At the end of the day, he has to generate the Red Sox wins.

I’m not 100 percent sure what he has to improve on, perhaps pitch selection or getting his velocity back, but he has to win big ballgames for the Red Sox. Advanced data suggests that if Sale can replicate his 2019, then he should be able to give the Red Sox quality dominant innings.

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Overall, Sale’s 2019 was one to forget, but not all hope is lost for the left-hander. I have faith he can bounce back in 2020, but if he doesn’t win his starts, nothing else matters.

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