Five critical individual stats Red Sox must improve in 2020
The Red Sox struggled mightily in 2019 due to a lack of performance from players. To get back to the playoffs, these five individual stats need to improve.
The 2019 Boston Red Sox were coming off of one of the best seasons in baseball history – the best Spring Training record (22-9), best regular-season record (108-54), and the best postseason record (11-3) – en route to the World Series. Then 2019 happened and all of those accolades went out the window.
There was destined to be some regression, perhaps five fewer wins in 2019. The Red Sox and Yankees were seen as the favorites to win the division, many siding with Boston after the dominant 2018. Anyone who bet a substantial amount of money on the Red Sox 2019 success are surely not happy now.
Instead of a five-game regression, the Red Sox won 24, yes 24, fewer games in 2019. The strange part of the 2019 struggles was that the roster didn’t really change.
Yes, Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly exposed the Red Sox bullpen, but other than that the team was the exact same. The same starting rotation, same lineup, same bullpen (except for Kimbrel and Kelly).
Because the roster didn’t change much from season to season, it shows that players regressed a large amount from 2018 to 2019. If Boston has any chance of snagging a Wild Card in 2020, players need to improve or go back to their 2018 form.
With that in mind, let’s go over five individual player’s stats that need to improve in 2020.
Rafael Devers was amazing in 2019…. with the bat. While his offensive production (.311/32/115) definitely overshadowed his defensive struggles, the young third baseman still wasn’t amazing with the glove.
While Devers definitely improved from his 2018 season and he made lots of flashy plays in 2019, he still committed 22 errors. While he made eight errors through April 28 which raised his total for the season, he still made 14 in the final five months of the season.
While his Defensive Runs Saved Above Average was -5, a big improvement from -15 in 2018, Devers can still better his defensive work in 2019. He has a cannon of an arm and can make flashy plays with the best of them. His main weakness is that he still doesn’t consistently make the routine plays.
While it’s definitely not the reason the Red Sox struggled in 2019, if Carita (Baby Face) wants to take the next step towards becoming an elite player on the offensive and defensive side of the ball, he will make the routine plays more often in 2020.
If Devers shows that he can’t play third base consistently, which he definitely has the ability to do, he could get moved to first base – a position the Red Sox have a hole at entering 2020. Despite that, Raffy will be the starting third base for the Red Sox come 2020.
In order to join the MVP conversation in 2020, Devers will have to become a more consistent defensive player and will also grow off of his spectacular 2019 offensive statistics.
Nathan Eovaldi was a hero for the Red Sox in the 2018 postseason. He got rewarded with a 4-year, $68 million dollar contract from Dave Dombrowski.
He made it four starts into the season before he needed to have loose bodies removed from his elbow and he was sidelined for the next three months. A stint in the bullpen and then back to the rotation in August was how Nasty Nate closed out his disappointment of a season.
All in all, he only made 12 starts on the season. Nathan also has to lower his 2020 ERA, 5.99 is not worth $17 million a year. He still had electric stuff in 2019, his average fastball velocity sitting at 98 miles per hour.
Eovaldi still possesses the pitch mix and velocity combination that caught the Red Sox attention. He is still the man that single-handedly saved the Red Sox bullpen in the 2018 World Series. He is still a pitcher that has the ability to dominate a game at any given night.
However, he has to improve headed into the 2020 season. For Nitro, the first key is health. His whole career has been mauled by injuries. If he can take the ball every fifth day and make 30+ starts, 2020 could be a special season for Eovaldi.
If he can regain his 2018 form and steer clear of the injured list, Nathan can become a front-line starter. Currently slotting in as the fourth starter, he has a chance to be a special back of the rotation pitcher and become a part of a four-headed monster of a rotation.
For Eovaldi, it all starts with staying healthy as shown by his 2018 postseason performance.
Mookie Betts came off of one of the best seasons in recent memory after his marvelous 2018 campaign. Betts was sure to regress in 2019, but he regressed a lot more than anticipated. His OPS shrank in 2019 to .915 from 1.078 in 2018.
Betts still had a very solid season at the top of the Red Sox lineup with a 135 OPS+, but clearly the stat to improve on in 2020 will be his OPS. Mookie hit for less power in 2019 and a lower batting average. He did garner the most walks in his career, though.
Even if his OPS remained the same from 2019 to 2020, he would still be one of the best players in baseball. However, the Red Sox clearly depend on Mookie’s production at the top of the order. When he gets going, so do the Red Sox.
If he reaches base, it puts pressure on the pitcher due to his speed and sets up the big bats following him: Devers, Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez, and the others following. Betts doesn’t have to improve from 2019 to 2020 in order to have a good season.
However, it is clear that if he can put up an MVP-like season, such as his 2018 numbers, then the Red Sox can become a more consistent and dominant lineup. Mookie is definitely capable of becoming the best player in baseball again.
The key to becoming the best Mookie possible is if he raises his OPS. If he is reaching base and slugging more, then the rest of the Red Sox lineup becomes insurmountably better.
Andrew Benintendi was the man in 2018 – a dependable hitter who you could always count on to drive in runners on base. 2019 Benintendi was a bit different – reduced power and increased strikeouts.
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Benny’s strikeouts increased A LOT in 2019 – 106 in 2018 to 140 in 2019. Benintendi was trusted with the role of the leadoff spot to begin 2019, but the Red Sox were forced to bump him down to the 5-spot after a miserable April and May.
His drop in the batting order can be traced to the increased number of strikeouts. With his speed, Benintendi needs to be putting the ball in play as much as possible. Also, as a leadoff man, getting on base is key as it allows for the big bats in the lineup to drive you in.
If he were to cut his strikeouts back to 2018 levels then his on-base percentage would go up as a result. If strikeouts don’t ail the former first-round pick in 2020, he can go back to raking at the top of the Red Sox order.
It’s not as if 2019 was an awful season for him as he put up a league-average, 100 OPS+. He had a hot streak in July, showing that he still has the ability to be a superstar.
Hopefully, 2019 was just a blip in his career and he can go back to his normal form. A good first step in 2020 would be cutting down on strikeouts and focusing on putting the ball in play.
Chris Sale was the 2019 Opening Day starter for the Red Sox, and his performance showed what was to come for the Red Sox. By the end of April, Sale was winless, and Eduardo Rodriguez was starting to emerge as the ace of the staff.
Sale did eventually get his first win and he started to pitch a lot better. However, he soon fell down again – one step forward, one step back, basically defining the 2019 Red Sox. Fast forward to August and Sale began to find his form again.
In his final two starts of August, Sale fired 14.2 innings with a 1.84 ERA. Then, it was revealed that Sale would be shut down for six weeks, ending his regular season. Luckily, he won’t need Tommy John surgery, but there is no guarantee that his elbow is 100 percent.
Ignoring the risk of Sale, assuming he’ll be good to go for 2020, there is one clear area of improvement – wins. The Conductor had a bad season when looking at standard metrics such as ERA (4.40), but when you dig deeper into advanced statistics, his season wasn’t awful.
For example, he had a 3.39 FIP. While that is the highest of his career, that is a really good season for many pitchers. Just for reference, Justin Verlander, the front runner for the AL Cy Young, had a 3.27 FIP in 2019. That shows that the lefty was actually really unlucky in 2019 and if he performs close to his 2019 level next season, he should put up solid numbers.
Still, saying Sale was lucky doesn’t fix the problem at hand. He was very accountable after his losses in saying that he has to win more, but that doesn’t fix the problem either. At the end of the day, he has to generate the Red Sox wins.
I’m not 100 percent sure what he has to improve on, perhaps pitch selection or getting his velocity back, but he has to win big ballgames for the Red Sox. Advanced data suggests that if Sale can replicate his 2019, then he should be able to give the Red Sox quality dominant innings.
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Overall, Sale’s 2019 was one to forget, but not all hope is lost for the left-hander. I have faith he can bounce back in 2020, but if he doesn’t win his starts, nothing else matters.