Red Sox: Four Dave Dombrowski transactions Chaim Bloom must fix
Dave Dombrowski ran the Red Sox front office from 2015-2019. Now in a tough spot, these are four transactions he made that Chaim Bloom will have to fix.
Dave Dombrowski was hired as president of baseball operations for the Boston Red Sox to deliver a championship. And he did. But now, Dombrowski is gone because of what transpired in order to get that World Series ring.
Based off of Dombrowski’s track-record, it should be no surprise that he handed out large contracts and dried up a once fertile farm system. Look at the Detroit Tigers, that is what the Red Sox would end up as if Dombrowski remained. With the firing of Dombrowski and hiring of Chaim Bloom, the Red Sox will look to build sustained success through fewer large contracts and deepening a shallow farm system.
The Red Sox are walking into foreign waters. Never in recent years have the Red Sox needed to act so stingy with money. However, it should be priority number one to reset the luxury tax this offseason and bringing over a top-executive from Tampa Bay is the perfect hire to do so.
As important as it is to rectify Dombrowski’s mistakes, it is equally as important to learn from those mistakes and the types of trades and signings to avoid.
Here are four transactions that got the Red Sox into this troublesome position.
Sale Contract
Going into 2019, Chris Sale had not proved he was healthy or could sustain his electric stuff for a whole season. Sale had a history of fading in August and September, and broke in the postseasons of 2017 and 2018. He had a good 7 or 8 months with the Red Sox, and ultimately helped them deliver a world championship. However, Sale still had a lot of problems.
So what does Dombrowski do? Offer him $145 million over 5 years. He had a history of fading towards the end of the season and just came off a season where he missed two of the final three months. Sale would be nuts if he didn’t take it!
The Red Sox now have $30 million every season locked up in a pitcher who you hold your breath every time he pitches. Now, while Sale was not good in 2019, by far his worst season, there were some bright spots.
Sale’s ERA was 4.40. For a pitcher who had a career ERA under 3.00, looking back on 2019 has to sting for Sale. However, his 3.39 FIP indicates he was very unlucky. Despite how unlucky Sale was in 2019, it does not excuse him for not performing. He has a lot to live up to in 2020 and he has some obstacles in his way.
In mid-August, all of Red Sox Nation waited in anticipation, fearing that Sale would miss 2020 after Tommy John surgery. Luckily, Sale avoided surgery, but now has shown he has a weakened shoulder that could limit him throughout 2020.
Also, Sale’s fastball velocity was so inconsistent on a nightly basis in 2019 that every start you pray it is above 93. Per Fangraphs, Sale’s fastball average fastball velocity per start was as low as 89 MPH and then 97 on other nights.
Sale will have to figure out how to pitch with diminished velocity or learn how to get his velocity back. Sale showed the ability to do both. In a start against Oakland, his fastball sat around 89 MPH and he managed to throw 6 innings of 1-run ball. Two starts later, Sale got his fastball velocity to 96 MPH.
Overall, this contract extension hasn’t been horrible for the Red Sox (it technically doesn’t even kick in until next year) and Sale can still make the contract a huge success if he can lead the Sox to the postseason. But right now, it looks like a bad contract the Red Sox have given out.
The best that Bloom can do for Sale in 2020 is to not rush him and to utilize the opener. No team would even consider taking Sale off the Red Sox hands so all Bloom can do now is pray that Sale gets healthy and back to pre-2019 form.
Kimbrel Trade
Craig Kimbrel was acquired by the Red Sox from the San Diego Padres and was very good for the three seasons pitching in Fenway. The Kimbrel trade was bad was because of two reasons. One, the Red Sox had to give up four prospects, two elite. Plus, Kimbrel struggled in the postseason and in big spots.
Kimbrel averaged 101.6 strikeouts and above a 200 ERA+ in his 3 years in Boston. The Red Sox didn’t have a closer going into 2016 and it was necessary for them to trade for one. However, I have always been under the impression that the Red Sox overpaid for Kimbrel.
While none of the prospects have worked out to this point, I fully believe that the Red Sox could have gotten more bang for their buck. While Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje, and Logan Allen haven’t worked out, at the time the Red Sox could have utilized those prospects to add more than one reliever. Some would argue that in 2016 the Red Sox needed a closer and ultimately he helped lead them to the World Series in 2018.
However, if the Red Sox acquired a lesser relief pitcher with two of those prospects and traded for another, they could be in a better spot. The Red Sox lost Game 4 of the ALDS to the Houston Astros by one run. If someone other than Kimbrel pitched, the Red Sox could have forced a Game 5. Also, remember the 2018 postseason. When Kimbrel came into the game it was a nightmare, it felt like he gave up 3 runs every night. Kimbrel had a 5.90 ERA in that postseason and miraculously never got a loss.
Overall, Kimbrel had a very good run in Boston – he was the best reliever in 2017 – despite a shaky 2016 to go along with a horrific 2018 postseason. So, while Kimbrel had his moments he was ultimately unimportant in the run to the championship and holding onto those prospects, or possibly dealing them elsewhere, would have probably been a better move.
While this move is over and Chaim Bloom can’t fix anything, he can try to rebuild Boston’s farm system and avoid lopsided trades like this one.
Eovaldi Contract
Nathan Eovaldi has always had tantalizingly good stuff with a 100 MPH fastball, a killer cutter, devastating curveball and nasty splitter.
Eovaldi’s career had been mauled by injuries, but he put it together in September and October of 2018. The right-hander had possibly the gutsiest performance in World Series history in Game 3 against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Eovaldi got rewarded with a 4-year, $68 million dollar contract from the Red Sox.
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At the time, Eovaldi’s contract didn’t look horrible, but after 2019, the opinion around the contract has certainly changed. Eovaldi posted a 5.99 ERA and only pitched 67.2 innings. Not great for a guy who will be getting $51 million over the next three seasons.
Eovaldi’s season got derailed by injuries, starting with a procedure to remove loose bodies from his elbow back in April. Then, the Red Sox rushed him back and stuck him in the bullpen, a foreign area to him. After that experiment imploded like Craig Kimbrel’s 2018 postseason, Eovaldi was moved back into the rotation after an injury to David Price– more on him later. Eovaldi still wasn’t effective as a starter to close out his 2019 and is looking like a bust headed into 2020.
Eovaldi still has three years to make that contract look good. Ultimately, his contract is worse for the Red Sox because Sale doesn’t have as lengthy of an injury history and he pitched much better than Eovaldi did in 2019 with a 3.39 FIP vs. 5.90 FIP.
Overall, Eovaldi still possesses his electric pitch mix and can flip into his 2018 mode at any time. If Eovaldi can put it all together in 2020, the contract may end up not looking so terrible, perhaps even a good contract. But based off of the indications shown in 2019, there is little reason to believe that Eovaldi can have a bounce-back 2020 campaign.
The Red Sox could possibly move Eovaldi, but it will be difficult. Bloom will have to hope Eovaldi can regain his form and post a quality 2020 season and live up to the contract he signed.
Price Contract
David Price was hated in Boston in 2016 and 2017. Then, 2018 rolled by and Price was a renowned hero after his clutch postseason performance. However, the same issues that plagued Price in his forgetful 2017 leaked into his 2019 season.
Price’s quarrels with Dennis Eckersley have been well documented, and frankly I don’t understand why they have to keep bringing it up. Price notably started the conflict between them in 2017.
Price only pitched 74.2 innings in 2017 due to spending lots of time on the injured list and he also missed significant time in 2019. The lefty managed to pitch 30 more innings than 2017, but his ERA was nearly a point higher. Price ultimately didn’t have a terrible season, but pitching through a cyst in his wrist and not being consistently on the field ruined his 2019. Price had an ERA in the low 3’s at the beginning of July, then his final four, starts of 2019 ultimately skewed his stat line for the worse.
Price is making north of $30 million next year and the two years after. Unlike the Sale and Eovaldi contracts, Price has had 4 years to prove himself.
Overall, Price hasn’t been awful for the Red Sox, averaging 147 innings and a 3.84 ERA. Those numbers aren’t terrible… if you’re not getting paid $31 million a year and not a front-line starting pitcher. When Price became a free agent after the 2015 season, he was a runner-up for the Cy Young award (Dallas Keuchel won and Sonny Gray was third, oh how the tables have turned). Ultimately, the Red Sox signed Price to put up that kind of production. Price hasn’t been close to that level and he’s now probably the third starter in the rotation behind Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale.
At the end of the day, recency bias definitely is a factor when thinking about Price’s contract – after 2018, Price’s contract was pretty good, right? However, when looking at the overall picture, Price has put up maybe 1.5 good seasons with the Red Sox out of 4. For a guy who got the largest contract as a starting pitcher (which Gerrit Cole is about to shatter), Price should be producing far more than he currently is.
Next. Red Sox top 30 prospect rankings. dark
This contract is definitely Dombrowski’s worst move and all Bloom can do is try to find a trade partner. Even dumping him to another team seems unlikely given Price’s less than stellar 2019 performance.