The Boston Red Sox 2020 season will revolve around the recovery of their three high paid pitchers – David Price, Chris Sale, and Nathan Eovaldi. Without that, it will be a long summer.
On a posting board, I visit daily the question one ardent Red Sox fan tossed to the masses was what do the Red Sox need to improve? This is certainly not a novel approach to the offseason as a variation of the question has floated around social media and the supposedly legitimate media.
The list is ever-expanding on the improvement of the Red Sox and how to manage a new cost-cutting approach. The drama of J.D. Martinez, fantasy trades of Mookie Betts, free-agent possibilities, low-cost players worth a look (An area I have mined considerably), enhanced use of metrics, and cutting the cost of a beer at Fenway Park.
The game revolves around as Earl Weaver would say: “That little bump in the middle of the diamond.” Pitching is where it’s at and you see that in the playoffs. A great arm can shut down great bats – maybe not in pristine form, but enough to get your team a “W.”
Boston has just that. Boston has fundamentally a great rotation and statistically a very good bullpen. What they didn’t have was the one flaw that can destroy the best-laid plans – health.
We all know the big number which is $80 Million in 2020 for three starters. Just three. Chris Sale, David Price, and Nathan Eovaldi potentially vacuüm up almost 40% of available payroll if the $208 Million course is followed. The return on that investment was minimal. The figures on cost per victory from the three are appalling.
You enter into long-term contracts understanding the potential risks and invariably the bulk of the risks take the form of injury. The Red Sox have been down that road before as have other teams. Even the parsimonious Tampa Bay Rays got fiscally toasted with Matt Moore. A smart signing that turned sour via injury.
How do you get healthy? The Red Sox have Price recovering from wrist surgery, Sale given a positive assessment on his shoulder, and Eovaldi finishing off the 2019 season back in the rotation with lukewarm results. Three pitchers and three very large question marks.
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If the Red Sox make a move with Betts or Jackie Bradley Jr. the return should center on pitching with focus on a mid-rotation starter, but if that falls asunder then the season will depend upon recovery of the three aforementioned hurlers. There have been recoveries in Red Sox history for remarkable pitchers of which Price and Sale are.
Pedro Martinez was coming off back-to-back Cy Young Award season when he was taken down by a rotator cuff injury in 2001. Martinez came back strong the next two seasons and then started a gentle slide into an injury-induced retirement. Will that be Sale?
In 1933 Lefty Grove was the best pitcher in baseball and probably had been for a half-dozen years. The Red Sox had a new owner in Tom Yawkey who wanted to build a championship team and Grove became a target. Yawkey had money and Connie Mack had none – the Great Depression. Grove to Boston for a few players and $125,000. Grove responded by going 8-8.
Grove was done or was he? The next season Grove won 20 games and had a league-best 2.70 ERA. Is this going to be Price? Grove by all accounts had a “dead arm” and then at 35-years-old recovered. Will Price?
Those are but two anecdotal incidents from Red Sox history and there are more and unfortunately, they can be matched with an equal amount that never made it back to form – just think Smoky Joe Wood.
The Red Sox will not be active in the free-agent scrum simply over payroll management. If Yawkey was still upright the Red Sox would put bids in for Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, and anyone else a GM deemed necessary. Trade wise the Red Sox will not be getting a top of the line rotation starter unless a trading miracle happens.
The season will hinge of health and I will limit it to strictly the three mentioned. Even ii two return to expected form the Red Sox could have enough rotation strength to become a playoff team, but certainly having Eduardo Rodriguez continue to shine and getting some depth will cement that. If all three spend too much time on the IL it will be another bleak October.