Red Sox Predictions: Fixing top five roster weaknesses

The Red Sox have numerous spots to fill on their roster due to underperformance, free agency, or lack of depth. Let’s identify how to fix these weaknesses.

The Boston Red Sox failed to address their bullpen going into 2019 and it burned them. Red Sox relievers combined for 31 blown saves this year, tied for the major league lead. This lack of focus on a key section of the team was a major reason the Red Sox struggled in the beginning of the season, leading to a hole they were unable to climb out of.

This offseason, the Red Sox have some glaring weaknesses that need to be addressed. Neglecting issues and bulking up already strong areas didn’t work in 2019 and there is no reason to believe it will work headed into 2020.

While ignoring any of these positions could be costly, a realistic scenario is that not every problem gets corrected, perhaps waiting for the 2020 Trade Deadline to see what the primary issues are.

Here are five weaknesses the Red Sox need to fix in the 2019-2020 offseason.

Bench

The Red Sox had a strong bench in the 2018 and 2019 seasons with Mitch Moreland, Brock Holt, Steve Pearce, and Eduardo Nunez. All of those players are currently free agents, suddenly crippling the Boston bench.

While the main focus of a team should be the starting nine in your lineup, the bench should not be ignored – think about Nunez’s homer in Game 1 of the 2018 World Series. With the Red Sox being forced to be stingy with money this offseason, Boston shouldn’t overhaul on their bench, but adding a veteran presence wouldn’t hurt the bench.

The Red Sox have some players in the minors who can help the bench – Bobby Dalbec, Marco Hernandez – but there are players that can come over for relatively cheap. Signing a bat like Howie Kendrick or Asdrubal Cabrera wouldn’t hurt as they are versatile and had big moments in leading the Washington Nationals to the postseason.

Another player that could peak Boston’s interest is Corey Dickerson. Dickerson should come relatively cheap as he only played 78 games in 2019. However, Dickerson did damage in those 78 games, putting up a 131 OPS+ and a .565 SLG. Dickerson also was good defensively in 2019, and pairing him with Boston’s great defensive outfield (Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Andrew Benintendi) would make the pairing even better.

Since the Red Sox have Marco Hernandez as an affordable option for 2020, Kendrick and Cabrera won’t be number one to the Red Sox. For a bench piece, a cheap, short-term contract would be ideal for the Red Sox.

Prediction: Sox sign Corey Dickerson to a 1-year, $6 million dollar contract

Back-up Catcher

Christian Vazquez is the definitive starting catcher going into 2020. After putting up a 103 OPS+ and getting nominated for a gold glove, Vazquez is the best catcher not named Yasmani Grandal, Gary Sanchez, or JT Realmuto.

However, Sandy Leon, the 2017-2019 back-up catcher, is set to make close to $3-million in arbitration this winter, per MLB Trade Rumors. Leon provides no offensive value whatsoever, even for a catcher, posting an OPS+ below 70 in 5 of the past 6 seasons. Leon is likely to be non-tendered – if not, stashed in Triple-A. Either way, the Red Sox need to improve their catching situation, especially if Vazquez is going to be playing in the infield from time-to-time like in 2019.

There are some high-end catchers available this offseason, such as Grandal, and some cheaper end of the pack catchers, such as Travis d’Arnaud or Martin Maldonado. Both would be good fits for the Red Sox. Let’s compare and contrast the two catchers.

d’Arnaud came over to the Rays in the mid-May and crushed right away. While he did eventually cool off, he still swatted 16 home runs and put up a 733 OPS. For a catcher, especially if he signs with Boston and becomes a back-up catcher, that’s really good! d’Arnaud was lacking on the defensive-side of the ball, posting a -6 Defensive Runs Above Average. However, d’Arnaud’s offensive upside outweighs his slight defensive struggles.

Maldonado has never been highly regarded for his bat, posting a .671 OPS in 2019. However, his real value comes from behind the dish. Throughout all of 2019, Maldonado posted a Defensive Runs Above Average of 11, much better than league average.

So while d’Arnaud is an offensive-based catcher, Maldonado’s value coming from his excellent defense. They are quite opposite players – only their position in common. The Red Sox, if they even considered one of these two free agents, would have to decide if they want stronger defense or stronger offense. Because of the decision to keep Leon the past few years, it seems the Red Sox would prefer a defensive back-up catcher.

Prediction: Sox sign Maldonado to a 2-year, $8 million dollar contract

First Base/Designated Hitter

There’s no word as of yet if JD Martinez will opt-out, but the Red Sox are for sure losing Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce. Martinez will likely opt-out in search for a larger contract. Either way, the Red Sox have to fill a gap, possibly two in the lineup.

As mentioned earlier in the article, signing Corey Dickerson to play a critical role off the bench is a very strong possibility. However, if Martinez were to elect free agency, then Dickerson’s role could become greater and be a mainstay in the lineup as the DH.

The Red Sox have to replace Moreland either internally with the farm system or externally with free agents. Bobby Dalbec would be the logical internal choice (unless Michael Chavis plays first base in 2020) and is cheap.

Externally, there are plenty of first baseman, such as Jose Abreu or Edwin Encarnacion. Abreu has been rumored to be traded to the Red Sox since the beginning of 2017, but never got traded. He led the AL in RBI’s in 2019 and put together a solid season. Now a free agent, the Red Sox have the ball in their court to sign him, but at this moment they can’t afford to have him on their team. The Red Sox and Abreu just never seemed to line up.

Encarnacion is a very intriguing option for the Red Sox. Encarnacion smacked 30+ home runs for the eighth straight year and was right in the heart of the order for the Yankees. The Red Sox wouldn’t want to pay too much for their first baseman, but if Martinez were to opt-out, then Encarnacion, Dalbec, and another bench player could rotate between first base and DH for the 2020 season.

Moreland has been good, not great in his time with Boston, but has by no means been bad. Moreland could come back on another team-friendly contract, but he is also probably too expensive for Boston. Moreland also wasn’t healthy in 2019, something the Red Sox would need him to be if they were to re-sign him.

Overall, a lot of what the Red Sox do at first base and DH comes down to what Martinez decides to do in the following few days. Martinez opting out can give the Red Sox financial flexibility to go out and spend more.

Prediction (if Martinez opts out): Red Sox call up Dalbec, sign Encarnacion  to a 2-year, $25 million dollar contract

(If Martinez stays): Red Sox call up Dalbec, don’t sign anyone

Fifth Starter

With Rick Porcello entering free agency, the Red Sox have a core group of four starters – Chris Sale, David Price, Nathan Eovaldi, Eduardo Rodriguez – but lack a fifth starter. They won’t be getting much help from the farm system, so it is certain the Red Sox will have to sign or trade for a new starter.

The trade route seems unlikely because the Red Sox would have to give up salary and assets from a depleted farm system, while free agency would only require money. The Red Sox won’t go out and sign Gerrit Cole or even a pitcher like Zack Wheeler. Rather, a back-end starter would likely be the target.

Three pitchers who could entice the Sox are Rick Porcello (sounds familiar, right), Julio Teheran, and Wade Miley. All of these pitchers should be in the Red Sox price range and pitched over 165 innings in 2019.

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Lets start with the well-known option, Porcello. He had an awful 2019 season with a 5.52 ERA and a 1.394 WHIP. Porcello did still make 32 starts, and was durable enough to throw nearly 175 innings. Porcello made upwards of $20 million in 2019 and there is sure to be a steep drop-off headed into next year. He seems to have enjoyed his time in Boston and may be willing to give up some money to stay with the club.

If you go back two months to the beginning of September, Miley was in line to be the Astros third-starter and get a three-year deal this offseason. Then, September came and went, Miley’s ERA rocketed up to 3.98, from the low-3’s earlier in the month. Miley was left off of Houston’s World Series roster and now his season has been ruined in one month. Miley may sign a 1-year deal in order to prove that he can put up a good season in back-to-back years. Also, Miley actually spent time with Boston, pitching for them in the dreaded 2015 season.

Lastly, Teheran had a solid season for the Braves in 2019, posting a 2.4 WAR. However, Teheran was originally left off of the Brave’s NLDS roster until an injury opened a spot for him. Teheran was not good in the NLDS, eventually giving up a walk-off to the Cardinals in Game 4. He still had a solid, underrated season, and could come to the Red Sox as a dark-horse option. Still, many teams could outbid the Red Sox for Teheran, so he could eventually exit the Red Sox price range.

Prediction: Rick Porcello signs a 1-year, $5 million dollar contract with Sox