Red Sox Predictions: Fixing top five roster weaknesses

LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 28: J.D. Martinez #28 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates his seventh inning home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game Five of the 2018 World Series at Dodger Stadium on October 28, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 28: J.D. Martinez #28 of the Boston Red Sox celebrates his seventh inning home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game Five of the 2018 World Series at Dodger Stadium on October 28, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
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ARLINGTON, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 25: Sandy Leon #3 of the Boston Red Sox at Globe Life Park in Arlington on September 25, 2019 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Back-up Catcher

Christian Vazquez is the definitive starting catcher going into 2020. After putting up a 103 OPS+ and getting nominated for a gold glove, Vazquez is the best catcher not named Yasmani Grandal, Gary Sanchez, or JT Realmuto.

However, Sandy Leon, the 2017-2019 back-up catcher, is set to make close to $3-million in arbitration this winter, per MLB Trade Rumors. Leon provides no offensive value whatsoever, even for a catcher, posting an OPS+ below 70 in 5 of the past 6 seasons. Leon is likely to be non-tendered – if not, stashed in Triple-A. Either way, the Red Sox need to improve their catching situation, especially if Vazquez is going to be playing in the infield from time-to-time like in 2019.

There are some high-end catchers available this offseason, such as Grandal, and some cheaper end of the pack catchers, such as Travis d’Arnaud or Martin Maldonado. Both would be good fits for the Red Sox. Let’s compare and contrast the two catchers.

d’Arnaud came over to the Rays in the mid-May and crushed right away. While he did eventually cool off, he still swatted 16 home runs and put up a 733 OPS. For a catcher, especially if he signs with Boston and becomes a back-up catcher, that’s really good! d’Arnaud was lacking on the defensive-side of the ball, posting a -6 Defensive Runs Above Average. However, d’Arnaud’s offensive upside outweighs his slight defensive struggles.

Maldonado has never been highly regarded for his bat, posting a .671 OPS in 2019. However, his real value comes from behind the dish. Throughout all of 2019, Maldonado posted a Defensive Runs Above Average of 11, much better than league average.

So while d’Arnaud is an offensive-based catcher, Maldonado’s value coming from his excellent defense. They are quite opposite players – only their position in common. The Red Sox, if they even considered one of these two free agents, would have to decide if they want stronger defense or stronger offense. Because of the decision to keep Leon the past few years, it seems the Red Sox would prefer a defensive back-up catcher.

Prediction: Sox sign Maldonado to a 2-year, $8 million dollar contract

Schedule