Mookie Betts has been incredible with Boston, no sane person could deny that. However, his unwillingness to sign a long-term contract in Boston complicates his situation.
Would the Red Sox love to have Mookie for the long haul? Yes. Is it risky keeping him and hoping he’ll re-sign? Yes. Payroll is the name of the game for this offseason and the Red Sox have to evaluate who they can trade to trim payroll.
As of the time I am writing this, there has been no word if JD Martinez is opting in or out. If Martinez stays and there are no suitors, Betts is suddenly available. Betts had a down season by his standards in 2019, but still played Gold Glove-caliber defense to go along with a 135 OPS+.. A down season!
Betts will make close to $30 million, per MLB Trade Rumors, so he is a large piece in the payroll. However, a player of Betts’ caliber does not come along very often. Only a few teams have the right combination of farm system and payroll flexibility to make a deal for a player of Betts’s kind. Only two teams can make a serious run for Betts – the Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres.
The Padres are likely not to be interested with a rental player and will not be willing to dive too deep into their loaded farm system. San Diego also has already given out large contracts over the past few years, and taking on Betts’ 2020 salary could cripple their payroll.
So now we get to the Atlanta Braves. The Braves had Ender Inciarte in center field and had Nick Markakis for the 2019 season. Markakis is a free agent along with third baseman Josh Donaldson. While Betts would be a great presence in the Braves lineup, I believe the Braves will re-sign Donaldson and snag a cheap right fielder. The Braves have the payroll for Betts, but should focus their resources into their starting rotation. Getting a big-name pitcher, perhaps Madison Bumgarner or Corey Kluber, is the way to go. Unless Braves ownership really pressures the Braves into signing Betts, he will not be playing in an Atlanta uniform next year.