Red Sox Predictions: Players who could be traded during 2019 offseason
After going over the luxury tax threshold after a mediocre 2019, the Red Sox will have to move players in order to build a better club. Who will be traded?
The Boston Red Sox have to cut money and win more games in the 2020 season. However, cutting money and winning are on the opposite ends of the spectrum, leaving quite a puzzle for the Red Sox front office to figure out.
With significant payroll being clogged up by large contracts handed out by Dave Dombrowski, and certain players who are under-performing when considering how much they’re paid, many Red Sox players could be on the move.
Boston may opt to trade someone with a long-term contract and eat money to help get them off the 2020 payroll. Other players that are getting serious money and under-performing may force Boston to trade them for 50 cents on the dollar.
There are definitely going to be changes going into 2020 in order to produce a winning team for less money. Here are five trade candidates and my prediction for what uniform they’ll be sporting for the 2020 season.
2019 did not treat Andrew Benintendi as kindly as anyone would have liked. Benintendi, the 2017 runner-up for AL Rookie of the Year, started the season in the leadoff spot, flipping with Mookie Betts from 2018. However, Benintendi struggled and was moved back down to the two spot at the beginning of June.
Due to Benintendi’s continued struggles hitting second, and the success Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts were having, Benintendi was dropped even further to hitting 5th or 6th in the lineup.
Benintendi did start to get hot towards the end of July, but then he went back to his normal 2019 numbers. He still has lots of potential, but the Red Sox could look to trade him this offseason.
Benintendi slipped from 2018, from hitting .290 to .266, 106 strikeouts to 140, an OPS of .830 down to .774, and an OPS+ of 123 down to 100 in 2019. Benintendi’s defense also slipped from 2018 to 2019, producing a Defensive Runs Saved Above Average of 4 in left field in 2018, and -3 in left field in 2019. Benintendi is still a final candidate for a Gold Glove this year.
So now, the real question is why would you trade Benintendi after such a poor season? Well, many teams, Red Sox included, still believe that Benintendi has lots of untapped potential and could be a force any year.
Per NJ.com, rumors surrounding a Benintendi and Noah Syndergaard swap began surfacing around the 2019 Trade Deadline. The Mets wanting Benintendi from the Red Sox never turned into anything, but it was interesting nonetheless.
Overall, the Red Sox would have to be blown away to deal a player of Benintendi’s caliber. He’s cheap, plays solid defense, especially with the Green Monster out in left field, has amazing upside, and could once again turn into a hitting machine like 2018.
Prediction: Benintendi stays with the Red Sox
Jackie Bradley Jr. has had a bumpy ride in Boston. He went from being an All-Star in 2016 to batting below average in 2017 and 2018, to winning the 2018 ALCS MVP, to going back to disaster in 2019. Bradley has maintained his elite defense, winning a Gold Glove in 2018 and possibly 2019, but that has been his only saving grace.
Per MLB Trade Rumors, Bradley is in line to make $11 million in arbitration for this upcoming season. The Red Sox, who need to lay off on the payroll, may not have interest in paying $11 million for a player that really only provides value in defense. Because of that, Bradley has a very good chance of being traded (or non-tendered) this offseason. Bradley put up a 90 OPS+ in 2019, ten percent below a league average hitter.
Teams that could be interested in Bradley are those that need a defensive center fielder and already have a good offense. The Mets struggled in 2019 defensively and offensively at center field, with Juan Lagares putting up a -2 Defensive Runs Saved Above Average and posting a 63 OPS+. The Mets could definitely use a center fielder and Bradley could be an attractive option for them.
Other teams that could be interested are the Indians, who could choose to trade for Bradley rather than re-sign Yasiel Puig. Also, the Angels could be interested despite having the best centerfielder and player in baseball – Mike Trout. Trout has been injured two of the past three seasons, and moving him to right or left field with Bradley in center could make sense for the Angels.
Overall, trading Bradley would not get any significant prospect for the Red Sox (unless they ate money) and it would be to cut his salary from the payroll. The Red Sox should explore all available routes in order to trade Bradley.
Prediction: Mets acquire Jackie Bradley
Nathan Eovaldi went down as delivering one of the gutsiest efforts ever given by a pitcher after his 2018 World Series Game 3 relief appearance. Eovaldi, in his contract year, insurmountably raised his value after his terrific postseason, ultimately landing a 4-year, $68 million dollar contract.
Then, 2019 came and Eovaldi went from Red Sox hero to zero. After his fourth start, Eovaldi had to have loose bodies removed which caused him to miss time from mid-April to the end of July. Eovaldi came back and pitched out of the bullpen and was not effective. Injuries to starters Chris Sale and David Price forced Eovaldi back into the rotation around mid-August.
Overall, Eovaldi had a awful 2019 (5.99 ERA) and is signed for another three years at $17 million each year. The Red Sox may look to trade Eovaldi, possibly for a bullpen weapon. A team that could use mid-rotation help may look into Eovaldi’s services.
The Astros may be a logical fit for Eovaldi. Houston tried to sign Eovaldi last offseason but lost out, with the Red Sox offering a better contract. However, the Astros are losing Gerrit Cole this offseason, and Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke showed in the postseason that their age is starting to catch up with them. The Astros, who reluctantly gave up four prospects for Greinke, wouldn’t have to give up any major prospect for Eovaldi and they would have to eat around $30 million of the remaining $50 million on Eovaldi’s contract.
Overall, it is unlikely any team is willing to eat much of Eovaldi’s contract. The Red Sox trading Eovaldi to Houston is intriguing, but if Eovaldi were to help the Astros in a deep postseason run, the Red Sox front office would get mauled by the fan base.
Prediction: Eovaldi stays in Boston for 2020
David Price was hated in Boston in 2016 and 2017. From lack of performance in 2016, to shoulder problems and calling out Dennis Eckersley in 2017, Price was not well-liked.
Then, 2018 came around and the perception of him changed. Price was healthy, had a good year, and was dominant in the ALCS and World Series. He went from worst to first. Just like the Red Sox record from 2012 to 2014, Price went from worst to first to worst once again.
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Price was not the worst starter in 2019, he was probably actually the second best due to the seasons Rick Porcello, Nathan Eovaldi, and Chris Sale turned in. But being the second best starter isn’t saying much when you look at the 2019 rotation for the Red Sox. Price was very good, an ERA in the low 3’s by mid-July. From that point forward, the season spiraled out of control for Price.
Price’s grievances with Eckersley resurfaced in July, his ERA jumped about 1 point in four starts, and he basically didn’t pitch for the final two months of the season. Price is also signed to a really bad contract (for the Red Sox) and their may be interest in trading him. The Dallas Morning News reported that the Texas Rangers may have interest in Price.
The Rangers will begin 2020 with a new stadium and will likely make a big splash to generate excitement. Trading for Price is a big move, and the Rangers have the payroll to do it. If the Red Sox could sweeten the deal of trading Price, perhaps with a piece like Jay Groome or Jarren Duran, then the Rangers could be willing to eat a sizable chunk of Price’s remaining contract.
Price has three years and $96 million left on the contract. If the Rangers are willing to pay $50-$60 million, along with the Red Sox throwing in a prospect, the two sides could form a deal. Overall, with both sides seemingly having a need the other can fulfill, then a trade is possible.
Prediction: David Price is acquired by the Texas Rangers
Mookie Betts has been incredible with Boston, no sane person could deny that. However, his unwillingness to sign a long-term contract in Boston complicates his situation.
Would the Red Sox love to have Mookie for the long haul? Yes. Is it risky keeping him and hoping he’ll re-sign? Yes. Payroll is the name of the game for this offseason and the Red Sox have to evaluate who they can trade to trim payroll.
As of the time I am writing this, there has been no word if JD Martinez is opting in or out. If Martinez stays and there are no suitors, Betts is suddenly available. Betts had a down season by his standards in 2019, but still played Gold Glove-caliber defense to go along with a 135 OPS+.. A down season!
Betts will make close to $30 million, per MLB Trade Rumors, so he is a large piece in the payroll. However, a player of Betts’ caliber does not come along very often. Only a few teams have the right combination of farm system and payroll flexibility to make a deal for a player of Betts’s kind. Only two teams can make a serious run for Betts – the Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres.
The Padres are likely not to be interested with a rental player and will not be willing to dive too deep into their loaded farm system. San Diego also has already given out large contracts over the past few years, and taking on Betts’ 2020 salary could cripple their payroll.
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So now we get to the Atlanta Braves. The Braves had Ender Inciarte in center field and had Nick Markakis for the 2019 season. Markakis is a free agent along with third baseman Josh Donaldson. While Betts would be a great presence in the Braves lineup, I believe the Braves will re-sign Donaldson and snag a cheap right fielder. The Braves have the payroll for Betts, but should focus their resources into their starting rotation. Getting a big-name pitcher, perhaps Madison Bumgarner or Corey Kluber, is the way to go. Unless Braves ownership really pressures the Braves into signing Betts, he will not be playing in an Atlanta uniform next year.