Red Sox Predictions: Where will free agents play in 2020?
With some quality Red Sox players departing in free agency this offseason, let’s predict where these players will sign heading into 2020.
After a rough 2019 season, the Boston Red Sox will have a solid group of everyday players departing in free agency this offseason. While many of these players leave gaps in the lineup, it is certain that the majority of the free agents will not return for 2020.
The majority of players on this list have enjoyed nice stays with Boston and have been serviceable in their time. The Red Sox are approaching a transition period – especially with the firing of Dave Dombrowski and hiring of Chaim Bloom.
Dombrowski dealt away many prospects for big-league talent in order to win the 2018 World Series. Now, the big league talent traded for has gotten expensive – signing long term deals for lots of money.
Now faced with the task of cutting salary while still winning, the Red Sox will look towards a farm system for affordable, quality players to fill the void left by these players. Despite this, Boston doesn’t have the strongest farm system, so some free agents could make sense to return to Boston next year.
With that in mind, let’s predict where the upcoming Red Sox free agents will land at the end of the 2019 to 2020 offseason.
Steve Pearce came over from the Toronto Blue Jays on June 28 of 2018. About a month later on August 2, Pearce cranked three home runs against the New York Yankees. Fast forward another two months, Pearce was batting third in the World Series-bound lineup of the Red Sox.
After reaching the World Series, Pearce took his game to another level – ending up with him taking home the World Series MVP while boasting a .500 OBP to go along with a 1.167 SLG and three home runs.
Pearce, similar to Nathan Eovaldi, was in his contract year and no better way to go into the offseason then winning the World Series MVP. The Red Sox rewarded Pearce by giving him a 1-year deal worth $6.25 million.
After a magic carpet ride to end 2018 for Pearce, he entered 2019 with some expectations. And to put it lightly, Pearce took a gargantuan swing and a miss. The injury bug bit Pearce throughout 2019 – back strain, torn PCL, and the inability to run for most of the season. These injuries limited Pearce to an abysmal 29 games.
Pearce is getting up there in age, nearly 37 years old. After playing the role of hero in the 2018 postseason, Pearce has not even remotely looked like the same ballplayer. As reported by the Boston Globe, Pearce has already been contemplating retirement. I think Pearce knows his best baseball is behind him and after a plethora of injuries plaguing him in 2019, Pearce will hang up his cleats for good.
Prediction: Pearce opts for retirement
Rick Porcello had an interesting tenure in a Red Sox uniform – and that is to put it lightly. He started off with an awful 2015 season, but then bounced right back in 2016 by winning the Cy Young award. Then, Porcello went from first to worst, leading the American League in wins in 2016, then leading in losses in 2017. Porcello had his most average season in 2018 while posting a 5.52 ERA in 2019.
Based on those numbers, there seems to be absolutely no reason for any club to sign Porcello to a major league deal. However, during his Red Sox tenure, Porcello still averaged just under 195 innings every year.
Porcello is a veteran pitcher and has pitched in big spots since he came up as a rookie. He provides leadership and was always accountable throughout 2019. While he is a quantity not quality kind of pitcher, if the trend continues he should have an okay year in 2020, then get lit up in 2021. Especially when coming off this bad of a season, Porcello should come cheap for any club that would like to sign him.
I would imagine Porcello would garner interest from teams that can’t seem to keep a healthy rotation, a team that has a young rotation, or a club with a weak rotation and strong bullpen. Expect the Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, Angels, Marlins, and Athletics to look into Porcello.
Prediction: Red Sox, 1-year, $7 million
Andrew Cashner got swooped up by the Red Sox on July 13 from the Baltimore Orioles. Cashner was having a surprisingly strong season up to that point, going 9-3 with a 3.83 ERA. However, Cashner struggled coming over to Boston and was moved to the bullpen after four starts.
Cashner was much better coming out of the bullpen, but still wasn’t the pitcher the Red Sox hoped for when they completed the trade for him. He ended the season with a 4.68 ERA and had a horrific Red Sox tenure.
Because of Cashner’s lack of success with the Red Sox, it is fair to rule them out for signing him. Cashner is a back end starting pitcher or a relief pitcher if he does not have success out the gate in the rotation. Mid-market teams that can use a back end starting pitcher or long relief arm out of the pen should be interested in Cashner’s services. A short 1 or 2-year deal is likely in the future for Cashner for around $7-10 million per season.
Expect teams such as the Phillies, Angels, Twins, Cardinals, and Brewers to be interested in Cashner. I believe that Cashner would want to go to a winning team and might take a shorter-term deal for that.
Prediction: Phillies, 1-year, $9 million
Mitch Moreland has been with the Red Sox for the past three years. Moreland has not been the healthiest player, with quad issues ailing him in 2019. However, Moreland has had success in Boston – specifically a clutch three-run home run he hit in Game 4 of the World Series in 2018 as his most notable Red Sox moment.
Moreland signed a 2-year, $13 million deal with the Red Sox two years ago and he has been worth every penny. Despite being limited to 91 games, he’s slashed .328/.507/.835 for a 112 OPS+. Of course, Moreland also brought his gold glove caliber defense to go along with his veteran leadership.
While the Red Sox would surely love to bring Moreland back, they have a lot of young third and first baseman stockpiling in the minors. Also, the Sox front office is going to be taxed with shedding payroll and Moreland may have priced himself out of Boston.
Any team that signs Moreland is bringing in a quality major league presence and leader to their dugout. Look for Moreland to sign a similar contract to the one he signed with the Red Sox in December of 2017.
Teams that would display interest in him would be a young team that could use a veteran leader in the dugout or a team that has a need at first base. Moreland could also be very effective off the bench and lengthen out any major league lineup. Expect the Royals, Nationals, and Indians to pursue Moreland.
Prediction: Royals, 2-years, $12 million
Brock Holt came over to the Red Sox in 2013 and has been an instrumental part of the Red Sox organization on and off the field for the past seven years. Holt has had his share of success and was Boston’s only All-Star in the miserable 2015 season.
Holt was key in the Red Sox world championship in 2018, hitting for the cycle in the Game 3 rout of the New York Yankees. Holt stepped up in the championship season, manning second base for the injury-riddled Dustin Pedroia and Eduardo Nunez’s inability to play the position.
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In 2019, Holt started off the season 0-for-18 and then proceeded to go on the IL for the next month and a half with a scratched cornea. However, Holt had an amazing 2019 season from mid-May forward.
While Holt has never been a guy to hit for lots of power, he has always been a guy who can put up a great at-bat and make a pitcher work for an out. Holt has also shown great defensive versatility throughout his career. In 2019, arguably Holt’s best offensive season, he put up a .297 batting average to go along with a .369 OBP and a .771 OPS.
Holt only committed four errors in 2019 in 101 games at 6 different positions. He is clearly a utility player than can plug in many different roles and be moved around to give other players rest in order to maximize his utility.
Unfortunately, as stated with Moreland, payroll needs to be cut and the Red Sox likely just can’t afford to hold onto Holt anymore. Overall, Holt should garner interest from teams that need to rotate out players often. Howie Kendrick and Asdrubel Cabrerra are both free agents for the Washington Nationals and Holt can replace them. Other teams could be the Reds, Rays, and Brewers.
Prediction: Nationals, 3-years, $20 million
At the time of this article, JD Martinez has not opted out of his contract or stated that he will be back with the Sox in 2020. He has five days to make a decision and while there is a very real chance he stays put, there is equally as much chance he tests free agency for the second time around. For the sake of this exercise, let’s assume Martinez opts out.
The Red Sox, who are looking to cut salary, will likely let Martinez walk and replace him through a cheaper free agent or with internal options. Either way, if Martinez opts out, I feel pretty confident we will not see him in a Red Sox jersey again.
Martinez was excellent in 2019. Not quite as good as 2018, but still a very strong hitter, smacking .304/36/105. Martinez will likely be limited to an American League team due to his lack of defensive skills.
Because half the market is taken off the board and most contending teams already have their designated hitters going into 2020, Martinez has a very small market. There are two teams I see as possible suitors to pay for Martinez: the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians.
The White Sox have been rumored to be in on Martinez and for good reason. Chicago has a lot of good, young hitters coming up, such as Eloy Jimenez and Martinez is a hitting guru and could help mentor this young core that Chicago is building.
Landings spots for Martinez if he opts out. dark. Next
The Indians are an interesting team because they seem to have a desire to contend, but traded Trevor Bauer at the deadline. If the Indians feel they can still contend with a fully healthy Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco, then signing Martinez may make sense. However, if the Indians trade Fransisco Lindor, which has been rumored over the past few days, scrap the idea of a Martinez-Indians pairing.