Red Sox: Potential landings spots if J.D. Martinez opts-out

Boston Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez is nearing his opt-out window Below we examine every imaginable scenario as his decision looms.

By early Thursday morning, the clock will start ticking for J.D. Martinez‘ five-day window in which he will have to inform the Boston Red Sox of his decision to opt-in or out of his remaining three-year deal.  The monetary balance over those three years is $62.5M.

The path that led Martinez to Boston was an awkward one. As free agency began following the 2017 season, the former Tiger/Diamondback fired the RMG Sports Group as his representation in favor of Scott Boras. In typical “Boras fashion,” the asking price for his new client was set at a staggering $210M over seven years.

Even more awkwardly, the market for the superstar slugger never heated up during the hot stove season. The only two teams who were reported to have made offers were the Red Sox and Diamondbacks. The latter of which was only a short term deal.

Finally, on February 19, 2018, just as spring training was getting underway, Martinez agreed to a five-year contract worth $110M. Exactly $100 million less than the initial asking price.

The deal seemed like a heist for the Red Sox, who benefited from the fact there was no real competition in pursuit of their new acquisition and were largely able to dictate the course of the negotiations.

Adding to the heist was also the fact that Martinez played an integral part in what culminated in a World Series title in 2018. As well as All-Star appearances in both of his first two seasons with the Sox, in which he combined for 79 home runs, 235 RBI, and overall 9.7 WAR.

It is more than fair to say that the Boras client has lived up to his contract as he weighs in the coming hours as to what his decision will be in terms of opting in or out.

Despite his immense record of success, this pending decision will come with a ton of risk.   Will there be suitors that will offer him significantly more than the $62.5M he is currently still guaranteed? What if there are not, and he ends up being forced to sign for much less?

Let’s go through the scenarios.

Top AL Contenders

A common fear among Red Sox fans is always, “What if he ends up in pinstripes?” The Bronx Bombers have a multitude of issues they will need to address coming into the 2020 season, too many to consider them as a serious landing spot for Martinez.

For starters, they were over the luxury tax in 2019.  Giancarlo Stanton is still owed north of $200 million. More ominously, the former Miami Marlin was limited to just 18 games due to multiple injuries this past season, and likely figures to be New York’s full-time DH going forward.

GM Brian Cashman will also have to make some tough decisions on whether to bring back long-time outfielder Brett Gardner, and power-hitting shortstop Didi Gregorius.

Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez are eligible for arbitration this winter for the first time.  It’s logical to believe that the Yankees will make both players a high priority in terms of locking them up to long-term deals as they approach free agency.

Per SNY’s Andy Martino, the Yankees are also going to be aggressive in the Gerrit Cole sweepstakes.

Many insiders have projected the 29-year-old ace pitcher will earn as high as $300 million, which would shatter the previous record contract for a pitcher of $217 million signed by David Price. It’s tough to imagine that given this recently expressed goal, on top of their current financial constraints, that Martinez will be found anywhere on the Yankees radar.

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The Houston Astros famously designated Martinez for assignment back in 2013 before revamping his swing/mechanics and rising to prominence in Detroit.

Houston does not have a big track record of signing players to long term contracts. The only veteran player currently on their roster signed beyond the next two years is Jose Altuve, who’s five-year extension kicks in this coming season.

2017 World Series MVP George Springer is entering the final year of his contract. It remains to be seen if Houston intends to make him a priority.  As well as Carlos Correa after 2021.

Given the Astros knack for their uncanny way of identifying great value, much like they did with Michael Brantley at two years, $32 million, it would defy their business model to suddenly take a chance on Martinez.

The Rest of the Field

Any chance Martinez had in restructuring his current deal in Boston likely followed former President of Baseball Ops, Dave Dombrowski, out the door when he was fired in early September.  A report by Masslive’s Christopher Smith this past Monday reaffirms the fact that the Red Sox have not made their DH a new offer despite a recent meeting with Scott Boras.

Moneyball teams like the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland A’s will almost certainly not be in play for Martinez. The Cleveland Indians spent much of the last year trying to trim payroll and they are very much looking more like sellers than buyers. The Los Angeles Angels are erratic enough to be a wildcard in any scenario, but appear to be focusing on starting pitching. The Minnesota Twins have picked up the 2020 option on Nelson Cruz.

One American League team that does make a degree of sense could be the Chicago White Sox, who have plenty of money to spend after missing out on Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. The South Siders are nearing the end of their rebuild and could seek to bolster their foundation for what looks to be a wide-open AL Central.  But is the Boras camp willing to put a lot of their eggs in this one basket?

My conclusion

Knowing that I am definitely in the minority, I expect Martinez will reluctantly choose to stay in Boston and serve out the remaining three years of his deal.

A decade ago, it would have been a no-brainer for the Red Sox slugger to opt-out of his deal with multiple GM’s lined up to make him a better offer. But we live in a different world now, where analytics and the desire to develop younger, more inexpensive talent have become the gold standard in roster building.

Carlos Santana and Edwin Encarnacion both signed nearly identical three-year, $60 million contracts with the Phillies and Indians respectively. Both teams seemed to have buyer’s remorse not long after inking those deals. Aside from these two players, there is no recent precedent of a player in his 30’s signing a massive deal. Let alone opting out of a deal to sign a bigger one.

Much like in the 2017 hot stove season, the market just isn’t there for Martinez. And now he’s two years older. The risk of his next contract being fewer years and much less money is far too great.

Opting out has all the potential to be a highly regrettable decision for JD, and possibly one of the biggest missteps of Scott Boras’ career. I reserve the right to be wrong.  But if this ends up being the case, it will be intriguing to see how the saga plays out.