Estimating MLB arrival for Boston Red Sox pitching prospects
Just what Boston Red Sox pitching prospects are on the horizon? Just how far before they can contribute to the rotation or bullpen?
The agony of pitching development continues to haunt the Boston Red Sox and especially the fiscal albatross that has ensued. Having a long-term commitment to David Price, Chris Sale, and Nathan Eovaldi at about $80 Million per season is prima facie.
To find any accomplishments of the Red Sox farm system vis-a-vis pitching one must wander back over a decade. That is a very long drought. On the current roster are two former number one draft picks that have contributed to varying degrees of success and failure.
Right-handers Brandon Workman and Matt Barnes are both in baseball middle-age with Workman now the perceived closer for 2020. And Barnes? Barnes – despite a reasonably decent 2019 – may have priced himself off the team with a projected $3 Million arbitration figure.
Is there anything in the prospect cupboard that may be ready to contribute? Looking over two sites – MLB Prospect Watch and Sox Prospects does not elicit a warm and fuzzy feeling for 2020 or beyond. The one caveat is pitchers can often do a Superman and progress in leaps and bounds.
Almost Ready
At 23-years-old, former first-round draft pick (2017) Tanner Houck may be in line for “The Show” with a respectable spring. Houck throws hard and often tops out in the high 90s. The heater is often the building block for secondary pitches – the ones that keep hitters honest. For Houck, a slider and a change that are still in the trial and error stage.
Is Houck in the ‘pen or the rotation in the future? At Pawtucket (AAA), Houck appeared in 14 games in relief and two starts. In the Arizona Fall League, Houck reverted to the rotation with six starts (3-2, 2.70). The downside that jumps out for me is the usual – a 4.6 BB/9 in Arizona. Reality is Houck will best be served with a Triple-A season.
Mike Shawaryn was greeted by much disrespect from hitters in his 14 Boston games (0-0, 9.74) in 2019. Shawaryn mixes up his pitchers which is now a euphemism for not bringing exceptional heat. Expect the 25-year-old right-hander to plug away at Pawtucket for another season unless he has a big spring. He could surface again during the 2020 season in the bullpen or as a spot starter. Stat nuggets: A 15.6 SwStr% was best on Red Sox staff. 42.9 Hard% was highest on staff.
A surprise during the 2019 season was righty Travis Lakins (0-1, 3.86) who appeared in 16 games (three starts) after being the quasi closer at Pawtucket (six saves). Lakins has a four-pitch mix and can tune-up to the mid-90s on his fastball. Lakins will be part of the bullpen scrum and will be cheap with MLB minimum.
If Pawtucket had an “Ace” it could be Teddy Stankiewicz. The 25-year-old righty has a four-pitch mix that relies on mixing things up. Stankiewicz projects for another year at Pawtucket and could get a look similar to that of Shawaryn.
Waiting In The Wings
The top of the line Red Sox prospect is a 20-year-old Venezuelan right-hander Bryan Mata. Mata can throw hard (upper 90s) and has developed an impressive slider and change to his pitching toolbox and is projected as a potential mid-rotation starter.
Mata split his season between Salem (A+) and Portland (AA) and was touched up a bit with the SeaDogs (4-6, 5.03) after his promotion. Mata is getting some higher profile experience in the Arizona Fall League and has posted an unusual twin stat – his K/9 and BB/9 are both 8.7 working out of the bullpen. Expect Mata to be in Portland to begin the season.
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What a difference a year makes. Right-hander Durbin Feltman’s stock dropped like World Com’s during the season. In 2018, Feltman got a world of positives after being drafted in the third round and doing a three-team tour that resulted in a 1.93 ERA and remarkable 1.9 BB/9. The hard-throwing Feltman also had a 13.9 K/9. Then came 2019.
Feltman spent the season at Portland (2-3, 5.26) where he never really got untracked. The main cause of disturbance is the usual suspect – a 5.4 BB/9. The plus side is a .223 average that batters tagged him for. Feltman is pure bullpen and never started a game in college or as a professional. A great fastball and nasty slider put under firm control could see Feltman as the Red Sox possible future closer.
The baseball kiss of death for a lefty is to be drafted in the first round by the Red Sox. Henry Owens (2011), Brian Johnson (2012), Trey Ball (2013), and now Jay Groome (2016). Groome almost immediately went down the chute with Tommy John Surgery and 2019 represented his first season or partial season back.
Groome is tall (6’6”) and is a reminder of Owens physically and with similar pitching mechanics with an average fastball, decent curve, and a change. The return was just a toe-dip with only four innings pitched and Groome is projected to start the season at short-season Lowell (A-). The lack of depth shows in the system as Groome is still ranked sixth on Prospect Watch.
The Future
Noah Song impressed on two levels with the first as a graduate of the United States Naval Academy and the second as a hard-throwing right-handed and fourth-round draft choice who made seven starts with Lowell (0-0, 1.06).
What Song does have to compliment his fastball is a slider, curve, and a change and the potential to develop into a mid-range starter. The Navy comes first so Song may have to wrestle with DOD athlete policy.
The Red Sox may have caught a draft break in the fifth round (2018) with right-hander Thad Ward. Ward had a two-team split (8-5, 2.14) between Greenville and Salem in 2019. Ward’s best pitch is a biting slider, but he will utilize a mid 90s fastball and a nice change. Ward will be with Salem to start the season and may advance rapidly if he repeats 2019.
Two prospects who may crash the top ten or crash are right-handers Ryan Zeferjahn and Aldo Ramirez. Both were at Lowell in 2019 and both were in the rotation with Ramirez being of great interest based on age – just 18-years-old last season. Ramirez made 13 starts (2-3, 3.94) with the Spinners and showed a mid-90s fastball, a slow curve (77-80), and a change-up. The term “intriguing” is applied to Ramirez.
Zeferjahn played three seasons at Kansas before being plucked in the third round (2019) by the Red Sox. At Lowell (0-2, 4.50) Zeferjhan got a limited introduction to professional life and will probably be at Greenville in 2020. Zeferjhan is projected as a starter and has a mid-90s fastball to mix with a curve, slider, and change. His system climb will be dictated by the development of his secondary pitches.