Five free agent relievers Red Sox could pursue from World Series teams
The 2019 World Series teams have several relievers hitting free agency this offseason who the Boston Red Sox could have interest in pursuing.
The World Series kicks off Tuesday night with the Houston Astros hosting the Washington Nationals. The pitching matchup between Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole will understandably draw plenty of interest but it’s the bullpens that the Boston Red Sox should be paying attention to.
Pitching was clearly a weakness for the Red Sox that will need to be addressed this offseason but they will have limited funds to spend in free agency as ownership aims to dip below the luxury tax threshold. Cole will be the cream of the free agent pitching crop but he’ll almost certainly be out of Boston’s price range.
The bullpen would be a more cost-effective way of upgrading the pitching staff. The Red Sox don’t necessarily need to splurge on a top-tier closer since Brandon Workman proved capable of handling the role but they do need an arm capable of handling high-leverage situations to bridge the gap to their closer.
Both teams in this year’s World Series have relievers capable of late-inning work who will be hitting free agency. A strong performance on baseball’s biggest stage would appeal to a Red Sox team in need of playoff-tested pitching, making these relievers options to monitor during the Fall Classic.
Hector Rondon
Hector Rondon has declined a bit from his peak years as the closer for the Chicago Cubs but he’s been a solid late-inning option in Houston’s bullpen the last two seasons.
The 31-year old posted a 3.71 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 60 2/3 innings for the Astros this season. While those are solid numbers for a middle reliever, there are some concerns.
The most startling difference was Rondon’s drastic drop in strikeout rate to a career-low 7.1 K/9. Rondon has struck out a batter per inning over his career and had a K/9 above 10.0 in each of the previous three years.
There wasn’t a noticeable decline in velocity to explain the lack of strikeouts. Rondon averaged 96.9 mph with his four-seam fastball, which is a bit below last year’s velocity but a tick above his career rate, per FanGraphs.
He threw his four-seam fastball only 45.9% of the time, his lowest usage since 2015. Rondon started throwing his sinker more often, a pitch he mostly abandoned over the last three years. This may explain why his swinging-strike percentage fell to a career-low 9.8% with Rondon aiming to induce more ground ball outs with the sinker at the expense of strikeouts.
Rondon was effective early in his career throwing the sinker but the pitch may be less effective for him in the launch-angle era. He matched his career-high with 10 home runs allowed.
A change in approach to improve his strikeout rate and limit the long ball could lead to a bounce-back year for Rondon, making him a potential bargain.
Will Harris
Will Harris is coming off an excellent season in which he posted a 1.50 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 9.3 K/9 in 60 innings out of the Astros bullpen.
Those sparkling numbers will make Harris a popular target in free agency but the 35-year old’s age and lack of the “proven closer” tag should keep the price tag in Boston’s range. Harris did save 12 games during his All-Star campaign in 2016 but he doesn’t have enough of a track record in the role to command a closer’s salary.
He’s not an elite strikeout pitcher but Harris has struck out over a batter per inning throughout his career and he posted elite figures in several other categories. His 2.1 BB/9 and 0.9 HR/9 both ranked in the top-20 among American Leauge relievers.
The right-hander has been effective against batters from either side of the plate, holding right-handed hitters to a .183/.269/.333 slash line and lefties to .207/.226/.264. That versatility has value to a Red Sox team that prefers not to use a roster spot on a specialist.
Harris has been one of Houston’s most reliable relievers this postseason, tossing 5 2/3 innings through the first two rounds against the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees.
Daniel Hudson
Daniel Hudson was a rumored trade target of the Red Sox at the deadline until the Toronto Blue Jays shipped him to Washington. He took over the closer role for the Nats down the stretch and tallied six saves this season.
Hudson posted a 2.47 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 8.8 K/9 in 73 innings split between Toronto and Washington. He was outstanding when thrown into the heat of a pennant race, producing a 1.44 ERA in 25 innings after the trade to the Nationals.
The new Nats closer has been lights out in the postseason with 5 2/3 shutout innings and four saves.
Hudson relies mostly on a fastball that hovers in the mid-90s and a hard slider with the occasional changeup. He also toys with a sinker that averages a tick below 96 mph, nearly as fast as his four-seam but generates more swings-and-misses. He doesn’t have the overpowering fastball or sweeping breaking ball associated with most top-tier closers but he clearly has the tools to get the job done.
The Red Sox wouldn’t necessarily use him as their closer but he would provide insurance in case Workman falters.
Sean Doolittle
The Nationals have a $6.5 million team option for Sean Doolittle so he may not even be a free agent. If he does hit the market though, he’s worth a look for the Red Sox.
The lefty had the worst year of his career with a 4.05 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 9.9 K/9 in 60 innings for the Nationals. However, we should take this regression with a grain of salt.
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His numbers are marred by a brutal month of August when he posted a 12.86 ERA. Doolittle allowed 10 earned runs over a five-game stretch before hitting the injured list with knee tendinitis.
Doolittle has looked revitalized since returning in September. While he lost his closer role to Daniel Hudson, he’s pitched much better than he did prior to his mid-season hiatus. Doolittle owned a 2.25 ERA over eight September innings and he’s allowed only two earned runs over 7 1/3 postseason innings.
Was an ailing knee to blame for his rough patch? Maybe he simply needed a breather during the dog days of summer? His solid results since returning from the IL are encouraging and the track record of the two-time All-Star suggests he’s worth gambling on following a down season if he becomes available.
The Red Sox were heavily criticized for leading the majors with 31 blown saves so it may seem odd to target two relievers who shared closer duties for a Washington club that blew 29 saves. This is where the “blown save” stat gets misleading since many of those instances occurred before the closer took the mound. Doolittle converted an acceptable 83% of his opportunities this season. He’s a potential option if the Red Sox want to sign a closer who may be more affordable after what was perceived as a poor season.
Collin McHugh
Collin McHugh was once a trusted member of the Astros rotation until they shifted him to the bullpen in the playoffs for their World Series run in 2017. He’s primarily remained a reliever since then but has the ability to start.
McHugh thrived in his new role last season, posting a 1.99 ERA and 11.7 K/9 over 72 1/3 innings. His emergence as a lights-out reliever didn’t carry over to 2019 though as he regressed to a 4.70 ERA.
His ERA was heavily inflated by two horrific outings early in the season when he was still in the rotation. McHugh was shelled for nine earned runs by the Texas Rangers and eight earned runs by the Kansas City Royals. Despite solid results in his other starts, Houston pulled him from the rotation following the latter meltdown.
Once he was back in the bullpen, McHugh began to resemble his 2018 form. He posted a 2.67 ERA and 10.7 K/9 in 33 2/3 innings as a reliever this year.
McHugh can be utilized as a multi-inning reliever, logging more than one inning eight times following his transition to the bullpen in May. This would be appealing for the Red Sox since their rotation ranked 22nd in the majors with only 806 innings pitched. He would also provide a capable spot starter – another bonus for a Red Sox rotation with uncertainty surrounding the health of their top starters.
Unfortunately, McHugh is dealing with his own health concerns. He was shut down due to back pain last month, hasn’t pitched in the postseason and isn’t Houston’s World Series roster.
It doesn’t appear that the Red Sox will get the chance to scout McHugh during the World Series but they shouldn’t forget about him. The 32-year old has proven himself as a high-leverage reliever and has shown solid upside as a starter. McHugh won 19 games and finished eighth in Cy Young voting in 2015.
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Boston could target McHugh as a bullpen piece with the ability to spot start or as a fifth starter who could be available for the cost of a middle reliever.