Red Sox 2020 projected arbitration salaries limit payroll flexibility
By Sean Penney
MLB Trade Rumors has provided 2020 salary projections for arbitration-eligible players. How does this affect the Boston Red Sox payroll?
Payroll will be an important theme for the Boston Red Sox this offseason. Unfortunately, we still don’t know exactly how much room they have in their budget since the salaries of most players under club control haven’t been finalized yet.
This includes arbitration-eligible players. However, we can get a pretty good idea of what next year’s payroll will look like with the aid of the arbitration projections provided by MLB Trade Rumors. Their annual projection system has proven relatively accurate over the years and provides a useful guide for getting us in the ballpark for Boston’s payroll obligations next season.
The Red Sox have 12 players on their roster eligible for arbitration this winter. Here’s what MLBTR projects each of them to earn in 2020.
Jackie Bradley Jr. – $11MM
Sandy Leon – $2.8MM
Chris Owings – $3.0MM
Mookie Betts – $27.7MM
Brandon Workman – $3.4MM
Steven Wright – $1.5MM
Eduardo Rodriguez – $9.5MM
Matt Barnes – $3.0MM
Heath Hembree – $1.6MM
Andrew Benintendi – $4.9MM
Marco Hernandez – $700K
Gorkys Hernandez – $1.0MM
The total adds up to just north of $70 million, which is more than the Tampa Bay Rays spent on their entire 2019 payroll.
That’s a problem for a Red Sox organization intent on dropping below the $208 million luxury tax threshold. Boston has about $134 million for luxury tax purposes committed to only seven players next season, per Spotrac. This includes the $13.75 average annual value for Dustin Pedroia, who may not be able to return to the field next season. They are also still on the hook for $5 million from Pablo Sandoval‘s buyout, bringing their confirmed commitment to $139 million.
These arbitration salaries give the Red Sox very little wiggle room beneath the tax and that’s before factoring in pre-arbitration player salaries or any offseason transactions.
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The good news is that it should be fairly easy to trim these projected arbitration salaries by non-tendering players they don’t need. Owings and Hernandez were seldom used late-season additions who provided below replacement-level value. Leon is a fine defensive catcher but his anemic bat makes him a liability and Christian Vazquez‘ breakout year reduced his playing time. Most of Leon’s value comes from being Chris Sale‘s security blanket, which isn’t worth nearly $3 million. Wright has made six or fewer appearances with an ERA above 8.00 in two of the last three years. Hembree is solid but the Red Sox can find cheaper internal options if they need to.
That’s $10 million we can free up in the budget without significantly impacting the 25-man roster we expect the Red Sox to open next season with.
Boston can fill out the roster with a dozen pre-arbitration players, which would cost around $8 million. Benefits and other miscellaneous costs that count toward the luxury tax add an estimated $15 million. That puts the Red Sox over $220 million for tax purposes.
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The Red Sox front office still has its work cut out for them if they want to duck the tax threshold while still fielding a playoff contender. It can be done though and the arbitration estimates give us a solid idea of the budget they are working with.