Let him walk
If Martinez does opt-out it’s because he believes he can earn more on a new contract. He’s been incredibly productive in his two years with the Red Sox, earning an All-Star nod in both seasons while hitting .317/.392/.593 with 79 home runs and 235 RBI.
While he’s dealt with a few ailments, including recurring back spasms, he’s remained relatively healthy while appearing in at least 146 games in each of the last two seasons. The Lisfranc foot injury that was a concern when negotiating his current deal hasn’t been the glaring red flag we feared it would be.
Martinez found a frigid free-agent market the last time he tested those waters with the Red Sox as his only serious suitor. Dombrowski wisely refused to bid against himself and Martinez ultimately settled for far less than he initially expected.
He may be hard-pressed to find a better deal at the age of 32. However, with two more productive seasons under his belt and fewer questions about his health, perhaps he’s willing to risk it. In which case the Red Sox may walk away from the table. They may be willing to renegotiate a new deal but it’s unlikely they’ll pay him a higher average annual value given their luxury tax concerns.