Boston Red Sox payroll situation heading into pivotal offseason
Dave Dombrowski was fired recently, leaving behind a large payroll with little flexibility for whoever the Boston Red Sox replace him with.
In 2018, the Boston Red Sox rolled to a World Series title by going 108-54 in the regular season and 11-3 in the playoffs, crushing anyone who they matched up against. However, questions rose shortly after about the long term sustainability about the success.
The payroll was already sky high, and the farm system was rather weak. With players like Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts not far from free agency, and World Series heroes Nathan Eovaldi and Steve Pearce becoming free agents, it was worth wondering how the Red Sox could sustain their success.
They ultimately re-signed Eovaldi to a 4-year, $68 million contract and Pearce to a 1-year deal, while extending Bogaerts shortly into the season. It seemed like the team would at least continue to be in the upper echelon of teams for the near future.
Fast forward a year later, and there are now more questions than answers. Spotrac has the Red Sox payroll estimated at over $241 million.
The offense continued to produce, ranking 4th in runs scored, 5th in wOBA, and 6th in wRC+ this season.
The pitching, is where the problems arise. The starting rotation, an expected strength of this team opening day, has $88.425 million committed to them. Rick Porcello has struggled greatly, Eovaldi has dealt with injuries and has struggled while Chris Sale and David Price have dealt with injury problems. The only consistent reliable starter has been Eduardo Rodriguez, the guy being paid just $4.3 million. That is not a recipe for success.
Now with the off-season looming, it seems the Red Sox will likely be moving one of their key offensive players. Let’s break down what the Red Sox can do to salvage this.
Starting Pitchers:
Chris Sale: signed through 2024 (owed $30 million next season)
David Price: signed through 2022 (owed $32 million next season)
Nathan Eovaldi: signed through 2022 (owed $17 million next season)
Eduardo Rodriguez: under control through 2021 (arbitration)
Rick Porcello: free agent
Like I said earlier, the starting pitching has been the downfall of this team. The rotation ranks 19th in ERA, 12th in FIP, and 12th in xFIP. While the latter two show there may have been some bad luck, a team trying to repeat needs better starting pitching than that.
Porcello has had a really rough year and is headed towards free agency. While it seems unlikely that the Red Sox bring him back, they may see him as a cheap bounce-back candidate and could bring him back next year. If they choose not to re-sign him, do not expect a big name to fill that 5th spot.
The Red Sox already owe their top 3 starters $79 million before they sign a fith starter and give Rodriguez his contract. You could possibly see Jhoulys Chacin, who is currently on the Red Sox, you could see another cheap free agent, or you could see a minor leaguer.
Given the Red Sox rather thin farm system, the options to take that spot in the minors are thin. The three likely candidates would be Tanner Houck, Kyle Hart or Ryan Weber. Brian Johnson and Hector Velazquez are options too but they have proved at this point that they do not belong in a contending team’s rotation. Houck and Hart probably offer more upside than Weber as the Red Sox got a pretty good look at Weber in the majors this season.
The realistic free agent options for the Red Sox include Tanner Roark, Jordan Lyles, and Jason Vargas. It helps to get Porcello off the books, but if they want a serviceable replacement, they will likely cost $6 or $7 million and clearing that money will not really be as important as it may seem. If this group remains healthy, it should be a rather formidable one.
Relievers:
Matt Barnes: under control through 2021 (arbitration)
Brandon Workman: under control through 2020 (arbitration)
Heath Hembree: under control through 2021 (arbitration)
Darwinzon Hernandez: under control through 2024 (team control)
Josh Taylor: under control through 2024 (team control)
Marcus Walden: under control through 2024 (team control)
Colten Brewer: under control through 2024 (team control)
Travis Lakins: under control through 2024 (team control)
Brian Johnson: under control through 2023 (team control)
Hector Velazquez: under control through 2023 (team control)
Andrew Cashner: free agent after season (did not reach vesting option)
Coming into the season, the bullpen was the main source of concern for fans, but they ended up performing pretty well, ranking 9th in FIP and 12th in xFIP.
The entire bullpen is intact for next season, with only Cashner hitting free agency. It is a group with plenty of depth and should be a strength next year. They could use a real closer with experience closing but it is unclear if they are willing to spend to get that.
The Red Sox have said they want to get under the $208 million luxury tax threshold, so it will be interesting to see if they go after a big name reliever in free agency.
Position players:
Mitch Moreland: free agent
Steve Pearce: free agent
Dustin Pedroia: signed through 2021 (owed $13 million next year)
Brock Holt: free agent
Sam Travis: under control through 2024 (team control)
Rafael Devers: under contract through 2023 (team control)
Marco Hernandez: under control through 2022 (arbitration)
Michael Chavis: under control through 2024 (team control)
Xander Bogaerts: signed through 2026 (owed $20 million next year)
Mookie Betts: under control through 2020 (arbitration)
Jackie Bradley Jr.: under control through 2020 (arbitration)
Christian Vazquez: signed through 2022 (owed $2.8 million next year)
J.D Martinez: player option, if accepted will be owed $23 million
This is where the Red Sox will have to make the most difficult decisions regarding the teams future. Likely one, if not both of Martinez and Betts will get traded this offseason (Martinez opting out would simplify this).
With how thin the Red Sox farm system is and the uncertainty surrounding Betts’ looming free agency, they may move Betts to replenish the farm system and make sure they get something for him.
Another possible piece could be JBJ. He made around $8.5 million this year and it might make sense to bring in someone cheaper who nearly matches his production. It seems unlikely that Holt, Moreland or Pearce return. Holt has put together consecutive strong seasons and his versatility will likely be getting him a sizable contract. Moreland had a solid year but a Travis/Ockimey platoon is much cheaper and likely offers similar production. The Red Sox also will likely move on from Sandy Leon to bring in someone cheaper. He will likely make around $3 million next year.
dark. Next. Red Sox need to build around Bogaerts
It has been great watching this group on offense the last few years but unfortunately it is a business and sometimes sacrifices must be made.