Red Sox Bold Predictions: Projecting the 2020 lineup
Will the Boston Red Sox offseason be one of tumultuous changes with high-end free-agent signings and blockbuster trades? I see little change in the core structure of the offense.
The Red Sox lineup will change for 2020, but they will produce since they invariably always have. The big questions will be possible player movement in the offseason regarding Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. as they enter their walk year. Will the Red Sox let the string run out on Betts? I will also leap at assumption in that Bradley is finally traded.
The reality of the Red Sox offense is that it is very good to excellent with an ability to easily outscore an opponent. The downside is obvious and that is the outscored portion was given a Herculean task based on the pitching staff.
The Red Sox need to bolster pitching and that means bullpen and rotation, but with $153 Million on the books for 2020 without arbitration, that task will be a difficult target for a new general manager. I expect the decisions will be made based on dollar signs with the attempt to accumulate savings with a little here followed by a little there.
So I will start my flight of fancy and into the realm of prognostication on the possible 2020 lineup. Join in and discuss possible changes via trades, free agents, and prospects.
First Base
Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce are most certainly gone. Moreland is finishing off a typical dependable Moreland season with good defense and some respectable power, but money becomes an issue. That leaves the two next most likely possibilities – Sam Travis and Michael Chavis.
Chavis is most certainly the front-runner with his potential power display that is accompanied by a prolific strikeout total (33.2 K%). The item that I note with the right-handed Chavis is a .226 average against lefties. The plus for Chavis is versatility with the ability to play first, second, and third without embarrassment. But will Chavis return to his dramatic start?
Sam Travis – another right-handed bat – brought some power into the lineup to go along with a batting average that could challenge the Mendoza Line. Then tack on a 69 wRC+ and a -2.6 UZR/150 and Travis may find himself elsewhere.
With limited payroll flexibility, the Red Sox will attempt to save a few baseball millions with the low-end choice. If the Red Sox had a little more fiscal leeway it would be best to offer Moreland another $6.5 Million, but I go with Chavis locked into first base.
Second Base
Dustin Pedroia will again give it another whirl, but the reality is a Pedroia comeback is as likely as a Trump going into a no Tweet zone. That will leave second up for grabs with the one guarantee it will not be Chris Owings.
The second baseman of record for 2019 was Brock Holt who played 44% of the time at second with fellow lefty hitter Marco Hernandez accounting for 31% of the starts. Chavis did his spot duty with 18% of the starts and could shift to second as needed or with lineup manipulation.
Defensively Holt (6.2 UZR/150) and Hernandez (3.4 UZR/150) are similar with a metric analysis of defense, but Holt is the more legitimate and experienced bat. Holt is also a free agent and that means more pricey than Hernandez and you get into cost-cutting a nice savings.
Then there is C.J. Chatham – a shortstop by trade – who hit .302 with Pawtucket (AAA). Can Chatham play second? Can Chatham hit MLB pitching? Can I win the lottery? Chatham is no slouch defensively and will get service time at second in the Arizona Fall League.
If Pedroia is healthy and capable of 125+ games then second is a moot point for 2020, but I expect the Red Sox will hand the job to Hernandez and not re-sign Holt. Chatham who could have a good spring and nose out his competition.
Third Base/Shortstop
The positions are combined for evaluation since there is simply no evaluation. Is this the best-left side duo in baseball? I could make a legitimate proposal that Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado are as good or better, but as provincialism kicks in I will take Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers and leave the other pair to be best in the National League.
Just think of a player who slams 30+ home runs, 50+ doubles, and hits .300. A fantastic season! Then double it and you have the offensive accomplishments of Devers and Bogaerts. They’re the first teammates to EVER accomplish the feat. The superlatives flow with the season that both have had, but to be the real surprise is Devers.
The surprise with Devers is certainly a breakout offensive season, but what stands out is his defense. I had consigned Devers to heading to first or designated hitter after watching his Butch Hobson like defensive displays.
April and early May was a continuing disaster and now? Ah, those defensive metrics! Devers is at 1.8 UZR/150 and may still lead the AL third sackers in error (22), but the second half of 2019 I no longer stop breathing when a ball is hit to third.
The Red Sox are lockdown set at the left side well into the next decade. Bogaerts is now signed, secured, and a team leader. Devers slips back occasionally with bad habits but soon rectifies that.
Catcher/Designated Hitter
Will J.D. Martinez opt-out? Martinez’s defense traps him to the American League where DH offers the opportunity to minimize defensive inabilities. What is known is Martinez is a lock at 35+ home runs, 100+ RBI, and to hit .300. What is also known is Martinez is an adventure in the outfield with a -19.4 UZR/150 in left and a -18.5 UZR/150 in right.
If Martinez finds another team willing to pony up then the DH situation takes a real offensive tumble. The Red Sox could venture into the free-agent market and scoop up one of the usual aging sluggers who are available. That could be a cost-saving invested elsewhere, but a dent in run production.
Christian Vazquez is one of the best in the league and second to Mitch Gaver in WAR. Vazquez is a smart situational hitter who has demonstrated the ability to do the little things that can have a big impact. Is Vazquez the best on the team at the lost art of bunting? Vazquez has benefited from the sudden homer-happy environment and hit 21 and counting – a nice bonus.
Defensively Sandy Leon has an edge, albeit a slight one on Vazquez. Both are blessed with power arms, good footwork, excellent game management, and veteran leadership. Expect the usual to continue in 2020 with Pawtucket having a veteran addition for emergency storage.
Outfield
I expect Andrew Benintendi and Betts to be back with Benintendi sliding over to center unless the Red Sox delve into a low-cost free agent option. Bradley will be moved even though Benintendi has a higher trade value based on service time. We’ve heard of the past few seasons of the attempts to move JBJ and I think this is the time they finally get the job done.
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The Red Sox could utilize Rusney Castillo but that is as likely as me being named Hunk of the Year. So who plays the missing outfield position? Gorkys Hernandez? Brock Holt? Carmen Miranda? TBD (To Be Determined)? Travis or Chavis? The minors offer up nothing – yet. So I’m going with that free agent glut and some astute scouting/luck/dumb luck to corner someone with a pulse, .260 average, and capable of capturing a fly ball without a pratfall.
The Red Sox could also shift Martinez to the outfield since his bat is quite capable of outdistancing what his glove will give back. That is all predicated on Martinez staying and quite possibly adding a free agent DH. With so much uncertainty heading into this winter only time will tell what version of the Red Sox we’ll see come Opening Day.
Next. Rick Porcello finishing season on a positive note. dark
The Red Sox will play it out with Betts since Betts is a once in a generation player. A five-tool All-Star who even in what is classified as a less than spectacular season (2019) is still spectacular unless you are Mike Trout. The contract machinations should be enjoyable.
*Stats via Fangraphs through 9/20