Chris Sale has yet to win a game at Fenway Park this season but the surging Boston Red Sox are in a good position to get him one against the Dodgers.
Wins have been hard to come by for Chris Sale this season and they have escaped him completely when he pitches at home. The ace of the Boston Red Sox is 0-2 in his eight starts at Fenway Park. That ends tonight against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Putting an end to this winless streak against the team with the best record in the majors is a tall task but everything is lining up for Sale to succeed.
The lack of wins isn’t entirely his fault. Sale is clearly not having his best season, as his 4.04 ERA will attest, but he’s far better than his 3-8 record suggests. Sale has been the victim of a baffling low level of run support. Despite leading the majors in runs scored, Boston has averaged a mere 3.89 runs per game in Sale’s starts. Only six qualified American League starters have received less run support this season and each of them comes from a team with a losing record. This is clearly a fluke screaming for positive regression.
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That could happen tonight. The Red Sox offense is thriving, scoring 6+ runs in 14 of their last 16 games and 8+ runs in four of their last five. Is this red-hot lineup suddenly going to take a day off simply because Sale is pitching? It’ll take more than that to cool off these bats.
The Dodgers will send right-hander Ross Stripling to the mound to oppose Sale. While he’s a solid pitcher, Stripling is only in the rotation because Rich Hill is injured. It’s a credit to LA’s rotation depth that they can turn to a spot starter of Stripling’s caliber but he’s still the weakest option in their deep rotation.
Stripling is still being stretched out after spending most of the season in the bullpen and he’s yet to last five innings in any of his three starts since rejoining the rotation. That will put pressure on the Dodgers bullpen, which is solid but nothing compared to their vaunted rotation.
The Dodgers bullpen ranks 10th in the majors with a 4.17 ERA. They are strong at the back end with closer Kenley Jansen but they lack depth in the middle innings. The Red Sox tagged the Dodgers bullpen for five runs Friday night and they could expose that weakness again if Stripling doesn’t last long.
Los Angeles has a lethal lineup but they aren’t nearly as formidable against left-handed pitching. The Dodgers are ninth in the majors with a .328 wOBA and 105 wRC+ against southpaws. This dangerous offense is merely above-average against lefties and we saw Eduardo Rodriguez hold them to only one run over seven innings to open the series. They shouldn’t fare much better against Sale.
A win tonight sends a statement that the Red Sox are prepared to make a second-half run. It would clinch a series win over an elite team that is the favorite to come out of the National League. They can remind the Dodgers that if they meet again in the World Series, Boston still has their number. Sale getting credit for the win at home would finally shake that monkey off his back and give him the confidence boost he needs to carry this team down the stretch.