Red Sox: Three up, three down heading into the All-Star break
Pitching has held the Red Sox back in the first half. Fixing that weakness to compliment the team’s strengths will be the post-break theme.
How does such a long season seem to move so fast? The All-Star break is nearly upon us, over half the season is gone, and the trade deadline will be here before we know it. And in all of that time, the Boston Red Sox, defending World Champions, have barely managed to keep their heads above water.
After 85 games, Boston sits at a decidedly mediocre 45-40. The Sox are already 10 games out of first place in the American League East and are 1.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot. Though not as strong overall as last season, the offense has generally produced. The team is fourth in runs scored and fifth in team OPS. The problem, clearly, has been the pitching staff, which consistently either blown huge leads or created enormous deficits. That embarrassment of a series in London was proof enough of that.
There are still bright spots already on the team, but the Red Sox need reinforcements if they want any sort of chance at making up ground. Some of those will come from within the organization, but some will have to come from without, and that means some players currently on the team will be leaving. As we look forward to the second half and a potential playoff run, here are the players trending up, and those who might not be in Boston much longer.
Nathan Eovaldi hasn’t pitched since the middle of April. He’s still recovering from surgery to remove loose bodies from his pitching elbow, and there is still no exact date for his return to the mound. So, why is he on the positive side of the ledger this month? Because he’s close, and because the Red Sox need him.
Boston reportedly expects Eovaldi back shortly after the All-Star break and will use him as their regular closer. The Red Sox need bullpen reinforcements badly (more on that later), and Eovaldi could thrive in relief. We already know he loves the big moment. His legendary relief appearance against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series both endeared him to Red Sox Nation and proved that there is no challenge too big for him.
A move to the ‘pen could benefit Eovaldi as much as it does the Sox. The righty has dominating stuff, there’s no questioning that. When he’s on and healthy, he’s as good as anyone. However, Eovaldi has struggled, throughout his career, with two things: consistency and injuries. The bullpen would minimize his innings and help protect his arm and his command. It’s likely that the Red Sox will get the best version of Eovaldi by naming him closer.
Even when his bat is ice cold, which is most of the time, the Red Sox have at least been able to count on elite defense out of the glove of Jackie Bradley Jr. On rare occasions, however, JBJ has shown the ability to both field and hit at high levels.
For the majority of the 2019 season, Bradley Jr. couldn’t find a hit with a microscope. He batted .127 in April and went 6-42 through the first 20 days of May. June didn’t appear as though it would prove any different; he went 3-20 in the month’s opening eight games. Then, as it occasionally happens, he flipped a switch.
On June 9, in a loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, JBJ went 2-for-4 with a double to kick off a seven-game hitting streak. Beginning with that game, he finished the month 25-for-69 with four home runs. Overall, he hit .315 with a .992 OPS in June and raised his season batting average to .236.
Bradley Jr. probably won’t sustain that production for very long. He’s so far finished only one season with a batting average over .249. JBJ has always been a very streaky hitter, and his hot streaks are short and rare. He’s on one now, so the Red Sox have to find a way to take advantage of it. A few extra wins in June and July thanks to Jackie’s bat could mean everything in October.
J.D. Martinez was never really down, but he did hit a minor slump as the weather got warmer. After hitting .307 in April, Martinez went 23-for-90 for a .256 batting average in May. He found his power swing, smashing seven home runs in May after hitting just two in April, but his OPS dropped and he struck out more often. Clearly, he just needed to put the two parts of his game together; it was just a matter of when he would get there.
Turns out, he was just waiting for June. He began the month 6-for-14 and finished 31-for-100 with seven doubles, a triple, and seven more homers. His OBP jumped by almost 40 points, and his slugging percentage rose by almost 70. He combined his average from April and his power from May to bring out in June the J.D. Martinez we all know and love.
Right now, the Red Sox need that J.D. more than ever. Without reliable pitching, Boston needs to score as many runs as it can every day in order to win. Martinez is the key to the offense. When he’s going, everyone around him hits better too.
Chris Sale landed on this side of the ledger after April as well, but it’s far more concerning to have to put him back on it at this point in the season. Sale hasn’t exactly pitched poorly; his June ERA looks great at 2.73 and followed a solid 2.82 from May. But his overall numbers don’t tell the whole story of his season.
That’s all a roundabout way of saying that Sale has been wildly inconsistent. He began May by pitching 21 innings across three starts and allowing a total of three runs. Over his next three starts, he tossed 17.1 innings and allowed 11 runs to cross the plate. In fairness, two were unearned, but that’s still an alarming shift from one half of the month to the next.
Still not concerned? Let’s examine his performance in June. Across Sale’s first three starts last month, he threw 22 innings and allowed, again, three runs. His final two starts of the month spanned 11 innings and saw him surrender nine runs (eight earned).
His inconsistency is remarkably consistent. It’s also very alarming. Sale is the ace, the stopper. If the Red Sox can’t trust him to be that, the season is lost. Sale doesn’t have to be perfect every day. Nobody is. But he does have to be better than this. The Red Sox will not catch the Yankees without Sale at his best, and they absolutely will not defend their title.
Things were looking up for Eduardo Rodriguez after May. He posted a 3.90 ERA for the month after recording a 5.47 ERA in April. His walk rate was down, he allowed fewer hits per nine, and once again looked like his talent was finally showing up on the mound.
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Then June rolled in and, as he always seems to, E-Rod took a step back. He pitched 37 innings last month and allowed 18 runs – all earned. The difference? Home runs and walks. In May, Rodriguez allowed just three homers and then gave up eight in June. In May, Rodriguez walked eight batters and then walked 11 in June. Put simply, he had a harder time finding the strike zone and when he did find it, he was tossing meatballs.
Rodriguez has always had more than enough talent, but he’s never been able to display it on the field with any reliability. Word out of Spring Training this year was that E-Rod was dazzling; the other members of the pitching staff watched his sessions with awe and proclaimed that this was his year. Once the regular season started, however, he delivered the same results he’s always delivered. At this point, it’s safe to assume E-Rod will never live up to his potential. Luckily, he can often do just enough most nights to allow the Sox to win.
Ryan Brasier may be the one in the photo, but the whole bullpen takes the L in this one. The Red Sox relief corps has been downright awful in recent weeks, which is why Boston almost has no choice but to move Eovaldi into the 9th inning. How bad have they been? Let us examine.
The Red Sox rank 15th in bullpen ERA this season but have gotten worse as the season has aged. They ranked 22nd in June alone. The team has already blown 17 saves, second-most behind the New York Mets.
Matt Barnes, once a quality reliever, has blown six saves on his own and allowed 14 runs, 16 hits, and 10 walks in 13 June innings. Whether it’s mechanical or simply fatigue due to overuse, Barnes has recently been all but guaranteed runs for his opponents.
Brasier, the other supposed closer, allowed 10 runs in 10 innings in May but was actually much better in June. Still, Boston can’t use Brasier every day and there’s no telling if or when the May version of Brasier might resurface. Sadly, the rest of the bullpen hasn’t displayed any greater degree of consistency.
Next. Converting Eovaldi to closer emphasizes offseason mistakes. dark
It’s not all bad; Steven Wright is back, which should help, and the Red Sox ‘pen ranks second in the league in strikeouts. Only the Los Angeles Angels have picked up more K’s. There is talent there. If Wright and Eovaldi can take some of the pressure and the innings off of Barnes and the rest of the group, then they might still turn things around.