Red Sox: When do they become trade deadline buyers or sellers?
With gaps that need to be filled and the halfway point of the season approaching, will the Boston Red Sox be buyers or sellers this trade deadline?
As the All-Star game in Cleveland creeps closer and closer, trades will start to happen and teams will be declared “open for business” or “buyers” for this summer’s trade deadline. The 36-34 Boston Red Sox are currently sitting in a state of limbo. They are 6.5 games back of the New York Yankees in the AL East and one back of the Texas Rangers for the AL Wild Card.
This begs the question, are the Red Sox real contenders this season and how should they act at the trade deadline?
They have been off-and-on all month long, they lost a partial series with the Yankees at the start of June before sweeping the Kansas City Royals. After stomping on the worst team in baseball, they lost back-to-back series against the Tampa Bay Rays and the Texas Rangers.
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There is a good chance we will start to get an idea of what Boston’s game plan will be after the London series against the Yankees at the end of the month. The front office would have had two full off days to evaluate the rest of the month prior to the series and President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski can use the series as a “do we have a shot this year?” marker.
After splitting the series with the Rangers, the Red Sox have the Baltimore Orioles coming up, who they are 4-3 against this year. Then they have the Minnesota Twins, who are the second-best team in the Majors right now. After that, they return home to Fenway Park to take on a couple of decent teams in the Toronto Blue Jays and the Chicago White Sox.
Should the Red Sox go 8-4 or 7-5 in those 12 games, maybe Dombrowski begins to lean toward adding assets for a playoff push. However, if they are still at .500 or below by then, Dombrowski may be forced to move on to the future.
If they are trade deadline buyers:
There are two real areas to improve this team: the bullpen and hitting with runners in scoring position.
The Red Sox have committed to a closer by committee approach, with Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Brandon Workman, Heath Hembree, and Marcus Walden all getting save opportunities this year. As a team, they are tied for 25th in the league with just 14 converted saves, despite 25 opportunities.
Boston does not have a huge stock of young talent available to move in trades, therefore it will be difficult to do anything world-altering. In fact, Bleacher Report ranked the Red Sox dead last in farm system strength in the entire Major Leagues.
The Red Sox could look at 2B Logan Forsythe of the Rangers who is hitting .364 with runners in scoring position. Despite a meager three home runs this season, he has 14 doubles with an .811 OPS and plays a position of need for Boston. He will also be a free agent this offseason and is making just $2 million this year. He would likely only be available should Texas fall out of playoff contention, however.
Last year, it was the pre-deadline trades for Steve Pearce and Nathan Eovaldi that changed the game for Boston. It may take a couple more under-the-radar type moves to set this team back on track.
If they are trade deadline sellers:
With the trade deadline looming just a month and a half away, it comes time to consider if it is worth moving in the chips to compete for a second Wild Card spot. The Red Sox are playing three sub-.500 teams in the next three weeks
Starter Rick Porcello is in the last year of his contract, with the pro-rated amount of his $21.125M salary remaining, according to spotrac.com. If dealt, he may garner a package of some worthwhile prospects. He is an innings eater, pitching more than 190 innings in four of his last five seasons.
They could also move on from outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. as he is coming up on free agency this offseason as well. He is a strong defender as always but has struggled offensively for much of the season. Bradley seems to be figuring it out recently, as he has raised his average from .156 on May 1 to .205 on June 13. He has a hit in six of his last eight games but also has yet to kick his strikeout habit.
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It’s no secret that the Red Sox need to figure out how to plug the holes in the ship and need to do so quickly. It feels like there is plenty of time left for them to turn things around but in the blink of an eye, it’ll be September. The trade deadline is approaching quickly and it’s time for Boston to decide if they want to buy or sell to reach their postseason hopes.