Boston Red Sox: Three up, three down after month of April
The Boston Red Sox may be fighting to stay out of last in the division, but there have been some bright spots. These are the risers and fallers after April.
Well, that certainly wasn’t what we expected. After the first month (plus a few days in March), the defending champion Boston Red Sox, who lit the league on fire from start to finish in 2018, sat at 13-17 and in 4th place in the AL East when the month of April came to a close.
On the bright side, the deluge of injuries facing the New York Yankees, plus the fact that the Tampa Bay Rays just aren’t as good as their record suggests, has kept Boston from slipping too far out too early. However, there is still quite a bit of ground to make up.
In particular, the pitching staff has been abysmal. Of the regular starters, not including Hector Velazquez, only David Price sports an ERA under 5.50. Though the last turn through the rotation produced promising results, nothing resembling consistent quality has emerged thus far.
Luckily, the offense has done enough, particularly in the last week or so, to keep the team from collapsing entirely. Certain players have stood out in the early going, and not all for good reasons. Let’s take a look at whose stock is up, and whose is dropping, in the early going.
Rafael Devers entered the season with a lot to prove. The star prospect, touted primarily for his prowess with the lumber, hit just .240 in his rookie season, though he showed improvement at the plate and in the field as the season wore on.
Over the offseason, much was made about Devers’ new approach. He supposedly had embraced what his coaches were preaching and was committed to a more patient approach at the plate. Last season, Devers racked up 121 strikeouts against just 38 walks. Clearly, something had to change if he wanted to avoid becoming the next Chris Davis.
So far, all the work seems to be paying off. After little more than one month, Devers has already drawn 15 walks; only Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts have walked more. He’s also struck out just 21 times, which is good for third-fewest among the regular starters.
Waiting for his pitch, as opposed to just wildly swinging away as he did so often last year, has helped in other areas as well. Devers’ .294 batting average is the second-highest average among the starters, and he’s hitting .435 over the past week. Only J.D. Martinez and Betts own higher averages. Devers is also getting on base at a healthy .381 clip, which would be almost 100 points higher than his 2018 OBP is the season ended today.
Rather unexpectedly, he’s become a weapon on the base paths, too. Devers has already swiped four bags; in 2018, he stole a total of five. In short, he’s improved every facet of his offensive game.
Devers still has some things to work on, of course. He has yet to hit a home run, though those will come as the weather warms up, and his fielding remains an adventure at best. The young third baseman has already committed nine errors, which puts him on pace to top his total from last season by early July. His defense has always been the questionable part of Devers’ game, though he can make some spectacular plays. If he can find just a bit more comfort at the hot corner and maintain his good hitting, he’ll more than live up to the hype he came up with.
J.D. Martinez can claim the distinction of being one of the few players to not start the season unbelievably cold. In fact, despite a bit of a slump over the past few days, Martinez has picked up right where he left off. He leads the team with a .327 batting average and 37 hits and continues to provide his team with RBI opportunities.
The Red Sox need consistent production from all of their starters, but Martinez is, arguably, the key. The danger he poses to opposing pitchers with runners on base allows Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi to see better pitches. Opponents have no breathing room in the top of the lineup as long as Martinez is going strong. Martinez hasn’t’ truly found his power stroke yet, though most power hitters don’t really get going until mid-May, but it’s a fact that he’s still as tough an out as anyone.
Betts and Benintendi got off to agonizingly slow starts, but they were able to climb out of their respective slumps in part thanks to Martinez. They’ve seen plenty of pitches to hit because of his presence, and that’s all good hitters need in order to get going. Betts may get the press, and deservedly so, but Martinez is the engine that keeps this offense running. His consistency will remain vitally important as the season wears on.
One of the bright spots in the cloudy start to Boston’s 2019 campaign has been the long-awaited and much-anticipated debut of top prospect Michael Chavis. The 23-year-old wasted no time giving fans what they wanted; in his very first at-bat, he ripped a double in a 6-5 win over the Tampa Bay Rays. While he went 0-4 in each of his next two games, he refused to stay down for long.
By the end of the season’s first full month, Chavis notched his first three career home runs and eight RBI. He finished April hitting .313, which would have put him in second on the team if he had enough at-bats, and amassed an elite 1.061 OPS.
While we should temper our expectations for the rest of the season, there is still no reason for anything but optimism. All rookies struggle; it’s simply a part of growing into the Majors. Chavis will certainly have his ups and downs, and will probably regress somewhat. However, he’s done enough to demonstrate that he absolutely has the tools to succeed at this level. He’s added a spark to Boston’s offense already and will be given all the time and support he needs to continue his development.
In the field, Chavis has been just as valuable. Though a natural third baseman, he’s spent most of his young career at second, helping to alleviate the losses of Eduardo Nunez and, sadly, Dustin Pedroia to injury. His versatility and strong play have already earned him the starting job in the middle of the infield. Once Pedroia’s excellent career finally comes to an end, Chavis could be in line to succeed him. The hot corner is occupied by Devers, who isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, and Chavis needs a home. If he proves he can handle second over the course of a full season, the transition will likely become permanent. For now, we can just sit back and enjoy his promising start.
This will probably be the only time Chris Sale appears on this side of the ledger, and it really does feel weird to have him here, but aside from his past two starts, he’s looked nothing at all like the Sale we’ve all become accustomed to.
The Red Sox ace, who is still winless on the season at 0-5, got off to a downright awful start. In his first outing, he lasted just three innings while surrendering seven earned runs and three home runs. He found a bit more success in his second start, allowing just one run over six innings, but only tallied a single strikeout. Sale allowed five runs and four runs in his third and fourth starts, respectively, and didn’t truly begin to look like himself until his fifth turn in the rotation, in which he struck out 10 while allowing two earned runs in five innings in a loss to the Detroit Tigers.
Here comes the good news. Sale followed that strong outing against Detroit with a seven-inning, two-earned-run, eight-strikeout performance against the Rays. Winless though he may still be, at least he now looks like Chris Sale. His velocity is back, and with it are the strikeouts.
Sale had a very truncated Spring Training, which no doubt contributed to his rocky first month. Now that he has some meaningful innings under his belt, he should be back to normal. Sale still needs to work on limiting home runs; he only has one homer-free start so far. Barring injury, however, the Red Sox can once again count on him to lead their staff.
Since his Cy Young 2016 campaign, Rick Porcello has been, well, not very good. In 2017, he went 11-17 with a 4.65 ERA. Last season, he finished 17-7 with a marginally better 4.28 ERA. His record would have more closely matched his other numbers had the Red Sox otherworldly offense not bailed him out so often. It is for that reason that, unlike Chris Sale, Porcello does not get the benefit of the doubt after a very poor start.
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In fairness, most of the damage to his ERA came in his first two outings, across which he surrendered 11 earned runs in 7.1 innings. However, barring his last outing, he’s struggled to stay out of trouble. Five walks in his third start saw him leave after just four innings, and he once again is having trouble keeping the ball in the yard.
Yes, his final outing of the month was masterful, as he shut out the Oakland A’s while striking out eight in eight innings. However, his 1.71 WHIP is alarming, to say the least. He’s already surrendered 36 hits, including five home runs, and 17 walks. His control has been shaky, and he’s been far too hittable.
The Red Sox offense will likely have to come to Porcello’s rescue regularly again, and they probably won’t be able to save him as often as they did last year. He’s had more than two years to rediscover whatever magic he found in 2016, and so far has come up empty. So far, he’s given us little reason to believe that his season will provide more positive results.
Finally, we come to the sad state of Jackie Bradley Jr.‘s offense. The glove and the arm are as golden as ever, but his bat, as it has year after year, has thus far disappointed. At his height, in 2016, he was a .267 hitter with 26 home runs. In each year since, his numbers have declined sharply in almost every batting category. He and Porcello could start a club for Red Sox players who peaked in 2016.
Currently, Bradley Jr. is batting a meager .149, which translates to 14 hits in 94 at-bats. He’s struck out 32 times against just 10 walks and carries a slugging percentage almost as low as his batting average. This all adds up to no added value at the plate. He isn’t hitting, he isn’t putting the ball in play, and he isn’t getting on base. Though he’ll probably warm up a bit given time, and may even enjoy some truly (and briefly) hot streaks, we’re probably looking at another poor season at the plate for JBJ.
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If not for his stellar defense, Bradley Jr. probably would not be a starter at this point in his career. Even in his better offensive years, he was always a streaky hitter, and his cold streaks have usually lasted longer than his hot ones. Luckily, the other eight batters in the lineup are more than capable of picking up the slack. Still, it never feels good to know there’s a guaranteed (more or less) out in the order.