Nathan Eovaldi is in a good spot to turn his season around when the Boston Red Sox host the Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday.
It’s been a miserable start to the season for Nathan Eovaldi. While the same can be said for everyone in the Boston Red Sox rotation, that ends tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Or at least it should, considering this Jays lineup is perfectly susceptible to being exploited by Eovaldi. It helps that Toronto is the American League’s second-lowest scoring team with a mere 36 runs through their first 12 games. The reasons for optimism extend beyond the lack of run scoring though, as the weaknesses of the Blue Jays’ lineup aligns with the issues Eovaldi needs to correct from his previous starts this season.
Walks have been a surprising problem for the right-hander, as Eovaldi has issued six free passes over 10 innings. That’s uncharacteristic for a pitcher with a career 2.8 BB/9 who is also coming off a season in which he posted a career-best 1.6 BB/9. This is not a pitcher with a tendency to be this wild.
That may not be much of a problem against a free-swinging Jays lineup. Toronto’s 7.7 BB% ranks 12th in the league and they are the second-most strikeout-prone lineup with a 28.0 K%. Their 33.2 O-Swing% shows how eager they are to swing at pitches outside of the zone. Even if Eovaldi continues to struggle to throw strikes, the Jays may help by getting themselves out anyway.
The long ball has also plagued Eovaldi with four home runs allowed through his first two starts. This is another area where Eovaldi hasn’t seemed himself. He allowed multiple home runs in only two games last season and gave up a total of 14 for an acceptable 1.1 HR/9 rate. Eovaldi owns a career 0.9 HR/9 so his track record suggests this is a trend that won’t last.
Toronto isn’t a team loaded with power hitters. They are tied for 12th in the AL with nine home runs and they rank 13th with a .320 slugging percentage and .128 ISO. The ball should not be flying out of the park against this lineup.
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The Batter vs Pitcher enthusiasts will be pleased to find that none of Toronto’s hitters have found much success against Eovaldi. The sample size is small but none of them have more than one career hit against the right-hander and Toronto has collectively hit .095 against him. Justin Smoak is their only hitter with more than two at-bats against Eovaldi and he’s 0-for-8.
While the grueling road trip to open the season clearly didn’t agree with Eovaldi, a return home could be just what he needs. Eovaldi was much better in home games last season, going 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA in nine appearances (8 starts). No matter what team he’s played for, Eovaldi has always performed significantly better in front of the home crowd and he’s historically pitched well at Fenway.
A light workload in spring training has taken much of the blame for the early season pitching woes and that certainly extends to Eovaldi, who made only two starts and tossed a mere seven innings in Grapefruit League action. Now that he has a couple of starts under his belt, it’s time for Eovaldi to get his groove back. If he can’t get the job done against this Toronto team then concerns will escalate to an alarming level.