Red Sox Roundtable: BoSox Injection staff predictions for the 2019 season
The BoSox Injection staff collaborated on a roundtable discussion to debate our predictions about the upcoming Boston Red Sox season.
The Boston Red Sox open their 2019 schedule in Seattle this week, leaving us with only a bit more time to make predictions for the upcoming season.
Boston is coming off a franchise record 108 wins and a World Series Championship last year. That’s a tough act to follow, even for this star-studded roster. The Red Sox will return most of last season’s championship core, albeit with a few key pieces missing in the bullpen. Will it be enough to remain on top or have their American League rivals closed the gap? Which players will thrive and who is due to regress? Can we expect another trip to the postseason this October?
These are the types of questions we aim to address. I posed five questions to our staff and asked that they respond with their predictions to each one.
While most of our writers are generally optimistic about this team (how could you not be?!), we found some variance in who we expect will fuel Boston’s success and what challenges they may face this season.
Who will have the biggest breakout season?
Rick McNair: I do believe I have mentioned Eduardo Rodriguez the last two seasons and may finally get it right. The secret to success for the talented lefty is to actually stay upright and on the field for 30 starts. Do that and they can pass on Rick Porcello. Rodriguez should be in the middle of the rotation pecking order by season’s end.
Josh Greenberg: It’s a bit strange, perhaps, to peg a veteran reliever as a breakout candidate, but my gut tells me that Matt Barnes is going to show us something special this season. The 28-year-old former starter showed signs of dominance in 2018, his best major league season, and is now poised to take over as the team’s closer. I think Barnes will flourish in that role. After beginning his career as a starter before transitioning to the bullpen, Barnes will finally find his place in the ninth inning.
Brendan Howe: Xander Bogaerts: The power numbers have been down for Xander in the past few seasons but I think that coming into a contract year, he’ll finally hit that burst he’s been looking for.
Patrick English: Jackie Bradley Jr. will turn 29 years old on April 19, meaning he is still in his prime. One of three Red Sox to receive a Gold Glove last season, Bradley Jr. is already considered one of the best defensive players in baseball. However, he is yet to have the breakout offensive year that many scouts expected. In terms of WAR, 2018 ranked fourth out of Bradley’s six seasons in the MLB. However, his expected slugging percentage (.462) was .059 higher than his actual slugging percentage (.403). This means that Bradley was hitting the ball hard in 2018; expect him to continue to hit the ball hard, but find last outs this season.
Rudi Richards: Eduardo Rodriguez. Having already made an impact last year, I think he’s ready to take his game to the next level. He’s been impressive but he hasn’t really had a breakout season and held his form for the entirety of a year. This year, I think E-Rod will be a force to be reckoned with at the bottom of Boston’s rotation.
Hunter Noll: Rafael Devers. The third baseman dominated in the postseason last year and has gotten into better shape and looked fantastic all spring. He’s in a lineup that will protect him well so he could get a lot of pitches to hit and be put in a lot of RBI opportunities. This should be a fun year for him as the 22-year-old continues to grow.
Evan Lewis: Rafael Devers. After a down year in 2018, he’s going to be more determined than ever to prove his worth to this team. We saw flashes of his potential in the postseason and in spring training. Now that Bobby Dalbec and Michael Chavis are breathing down his neck, he knows he’s going to have to prove himself in 2019 or risk losing his job. The 22-year-old is a special player whose underwhelming sophomore season can be attributed to youth and relative inexperience. Now is the time for him to prove his worth in Boston.
Brian Carpenter: The biggest breakout season will come from Jackie Bradley Jr. We have seen spurts of his ability to perform at a high level offensively but I think this is the year he puts it all together. I think he hits at least 30 Home Runs and drives in at least 80.
Who will be this year’s biggest disappointment?
Rick: My biggest disappointment has already surfaced with Steven Wright bagging an 80-game suspension. So we go to my runner-up and that will be Nathan Eovaldi. Bitter disappointment? I doubt that unless he goes for round three of Tommy John.
Josh: If any player disappoints, it’s probably going to be Rick Porcello. Since his Cy Young 2016 season, Porcello has struggled with consistency and with home runs allowed. He showed some improvement last year, but still allowed too many homers and finished with an ERA over 4.00. If He can find a way to keep the ball in the yard more often this season, the Red Sox could be the best top-to-bottom rotation in baseball. If not, Porcello will be the weak link and possibly the team’s Achilles heel.
Brendan: David Price: As much as I hate to say it, I think Price’s postseason performances may have been a bit of a fluke. I’m not expecting a total drop-off, but significant enough to once again raise questions about his reliability.
Patrick: Christian Vazquez seems to have won the Red Sox catcher battle despite batting just .132 in Spring Training. According to the Red Sox brass, he is impressed in camp but the offensive numbers seem to say otherwise. We can’t read too much into spring numbers but Vazquez also batted .207 last season. He also does not have the same rapport with the pitchers as Sandy Leon, who was recently removed from the 40-man roster and reassigned to Triple-A Pawtucket. While Leon’s offensive numbers were never great, his effect on the pitching staff will not be fully understood until what is now looking like an inevitable trade.
Rudi: The areas that could prove to be costly are at catcher and first base. I’m not sure whether we’ll see any consistent offense from either position. It’ll be difficult for Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce to be as good as they were last season. I’m sure everything will be fine though!
Hunter: This is a weird one, but Steve Pearce. Hear me out. I don’t think he’ll be bad at all. However, a lot of fans seem to be putting him on a pedestal after his fantastic World Series. The fact that he’s simply a role player again could be a crushing reality for a lot of fans early in the year.
Evan: The case can be made for World Series MVP Steve Pearce, but I think the obvious choice is Christian Vazquez. He’s basically been handed the starting job despite an awful spring training and a dismal season at the plate in 2018. After signing the catcher to an extension last March, the team isn’t ready to give up on him yet and unfortunately had to banish Leon instead. Vazquez’s lack of offense was tolerable last year because of the team’s stellar lineup and the fact that he split time with Leon. The pitchers and managers raved about Leon’s ability to call a game and now that he’s at Triple-A, the pressure will be on Vazquez to pick up the slack. Blake Swihart‘s bat could force Alex Cora to give the kid more playing time as the year goes on and if Vazquez struggles again, Leon is in the minors waiting for a chance to rejoin the squad.
Brian: One name that comes to mind who could have a season that is lesser than what people expect is Rafael Devers. I still think he could have a good season but I think people continue to raise his expectations and this could end up causing him to continue to feel added pressure. A strong spring for Devers could lead him to big things heading into Opening Day and he is a player I will be watching closely all year.
Will the Red Sox need to make a mid-season trade for bullpen help?
Rick: They are always making a deal or two or three to shore up a weakness and with this team, it could be catcher or bullpen. My coin toss came up tails and that was the bullpen. They have – to use a political term – a lot of dough faces in that ‘pen.
Josh: Unknown though the Red Sox relievers may generally be, there is a lot of talent left in that bullpen, even without Craig Kimbrel. Matt Barnes took a big step last season and Ryan Brasier surprised everyone with a very solid season. Tyler Thornburg hasn’t had a great start to his Red Sox career but he still has all the potential the Sox saw when they traded for him. If Boston does need midseason help, it can call up Darwinzon Hernandez or Durbin Feltman, who will be chomping at the bit in the minors. Should we rule out a trade entirely? Of course not. However, the Red Sox will be fine with what they have.
Brendan: Yes. I don’t think there’s any doubt the there’s a huge hole in the back end of the bullpen. Last year the bridge between the 7th-8th innings were a struggle and after the departure of Joe Kelly, it will only get tougher. Let’s hope Ryan Brasier can continue his out-of-nowhere dominance.
Patrick: The Red Sox will need to make a trade. While I’m confident that Matt Barnes and Ryan Brasier can take control in the 8th and 9th innings, the bridge to them is a concern. A 7th inning-assignment is a big ask for Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree and I doubt they will be up to the task. With only one top-100 prospect and so many key pieces at the Major League level, the Red Sox do not have many trade chips and will probably aim for a reliever on an expiring contract. Hector Rondon and Seunghwan Oh seem like viable options.
Rudi: Going forward, I can definitely see a trade for a bullpen guy being made. Right now, the pen is looking very thin – and even thinner if anybody gets hurt during the year. With the likes of Darwinzon Hernandez and co. in the minors, there’re plenty of internal options. However, we might need someone with a little more experience.
Hunter: I honestly don’t think the bullpen will be as much of a problem as people think with some of the arms in the minors. Bobby Poyner is legit. That being said, they’ll do it anyways. David Hernandez had a great year for the Cincinnati Reds last season. He’s 33 and on the last year of a cheap deal so if the Reds are out of the playoff race mid-season they could dump him for a decent return. Hernandez could be a great setup man for Barnes/Brasier
Evan: Everyone thought the Sox would make a trade at the deadline last year for a reliever. Everyone also thought the Sox would sign a reliever this offseason. They didn’t. After the failed acquisitions of Tyler Thornburg and Carson Smith, Dave Dombrowski seems intent not to be baited into a bad bullpen trade again. Should he make a trade for some bullpen help? Yes. Will he make a trade for some bullpen help? Don’t count on it.
Brian: I do think the Red Sox will need to make a trade for some kind of bullpen piece. I don’t think it will need to be in the back end of the bullpen because I think that will solidify itself as the season progresses. Guys like Matt Barnes and Ryan Braiser proved in the postseason that they can handle high leverage situations. A potential name I think the Red Sox will target is Will Smith from the San Francisco Giants. With 71 strikeouts and a 2.55 ERA last year, he is a name that I think will draw a lot of interest from the Red Sox come July.
Will any Red Sox player finish top-3 on the ballot for MVP or Cy Young?
Rick: Eventually, Chris sale will win the Cy Young, but he needs a 180 innings to do it.
Josh: I think we can safely assume that Mookie Betts will at least finish in the top-3 of the MVP race and that Chris Sale will finish in that range in the Cy Young race. Both are among the best at what they do and Betts is the reigning MVP. While he may lose out to Mike Trout, it should be a tight race once again. Sale, for his part, has fallen just short of winning the Cy Young in each of his big league seasons. If he can stay healthy, this might finally be his year.
Brendan: I believe Mookie Betts is a lock to finish top-3 in the MVP race, and even J.D. Martinez may have a shot with the DH gaining more respect league-wide.
Patrick: No. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez both had huge seasons last year and it is more likely that they will regress in 2019 than put up the same or better statistics. Martinez’s lack of fielding prowess also hurts him in MVP voting and makes him unlikely to finish in the top 3. Sale finished fourth in Cy Young voting last season, but his velocity dipped in September and will be a concern again in 2019.
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Rudi: I think Mookie will be in the top-3 for MVP at the end of the year. I definitely think he can have a similar year to last season. He’s a superstar and I hope he can perform on that level for years to come – hopefully in Boston. J.D. could also be up there, especially with the more modern look at DH’s being established this offseason. For pitching, Chris Sale will definitely be in and around the contenders for what would, somehow, be his first career Cy Young award.
Hunter: It’s impossible to bet against Mookie Betts and Chris Sale for those two awards.
Evan: Call me an optimist, but yes to both. I don’t see a world in which Mookie Betts regresses at all and while Chris Sale’s health is a bit of a concern, I still have a hard time thinking the ace won’t be in contention. I still think J.D. Martinez will be the best DH in the league, but I’m doubtful that he will be able to finish once again in the top 3 if Betts, Aaron Judge, Alex Bregman, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Mike Trout, and others all stay healthy. Like it or not, it’s likely that being a DH negatively impacts his chances in many voter’s eyes.
Brian: I think Chris Sale will finish Top 3 in the Cy Young once again and this might finally be the year he takes home the one award that has avoided his outstanding career so far. I don’t think any Red Sox player will finish Top 3 in the MVP vote, however.
The Red Sox will: A) Win the AL East; B) Be a Wild Card team; or C) Miss the postseason
Rick: Wild Card for me, but an easy ride into the World Series. Playoffs mean a condensed rotation and that bulks up the bullpen. This rotation – despite my Eovaldi concern – is top notch.
Josh: I’m predicting that the Red Sox will once again win the AL East. The Yankees improved this offseason, but not to the point that they should be considered preseason favorites. The Red Sox did lose Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly but otherwise, are more or less identical to the team that won 108 games last year. They probably won’t reach that total again. but 95-97 wins should be attainable.
Brendan: Win the AL East. Many people say the Yankees are out for revenge but I just can’t bring myself to believe that their starting rotation will hold up for a deep playoff run. Severino is already on the rocks health-wise, while Tanaka and Sabathia aren’t getting any younger. I think the Red Sox are built to win, top to bottom.
Patrick: The Red Sox will win the AL East, but not by 8 games and not with 108 wins like last season. The division will be a dogfight right to the end but the Red Sox are still the team to beat. Pecota projects the Red Sox for just 90 wins but it is unlikely that regression and the loss of Kimbrel and Kelly will account for an 18-win difference. The Yankees have certainly retooled with Paxton, Ottavino, LeMahieu, and Tulowitzki, but it will not be enough to bridge the gap.
Rudi: I think this pretty much unchanged Red Sox roster has what it takes to win the division yet again. With the Yankees and a great Rays team, this is certainly one of the harder divisions to clinch. But I’m confident that Cora and this squad of players can win another title and make a run at defending their championship.
Hunter: It’s hard to bet against a team that dominated so much like the Red Sox did last season. People will point to their bullpen being a weakness as to why the New York Yankees will win the division. Boston’s starting rotation is lightyears ahead of New York’s though – so that’s a wash. Give me the Red Sox to take the division.
Evan: It’s interesting that nearly all of our writers think the Red Sox will win the division, while many of the so-called “experts” think they will either make the wild card or miss the playoffs altogether. Are we just falsely optimistic fans? Or are the experts wrong again, just like they were at the beginning of last season? I’m going to side with my colleagues and go with the latter. The Red Sox lost bullpen help, but Bobby Poyner and others seem primed to become the next Ryan Brasier. Other than that, their team is exactly the same and former AL MVP and clubhouse leader Dustin Pedroia will be back on the field soon enough. The Yankees may have improved, but they already have been beset with injuries to many of their key players. It won’t be easy, but I’m picking the Sox to wear the division crown for the fourth year in a row.
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Brian: The Red Sox will win the AL East for a fourth consecutive year. I think they get past the Divisional Series but fall in a close 7 game series against the Astros in the ALCS.