Three Boston Red Sox predictions for the 2019 regular season
Three predictions for the Boston Red Sox 2019 season, each focused on a particular area – player production, position ranking, and prospects impact.
As the MLB regular season approaches, Boston Red Sox fans will likely start making predictions for the season. Some are more reasonable than others but all do have a chance of happening.
Coming off a 108 win season, there are not too many things that seem impossible for this team. Most of the roster has remained the same, with the bullpen being the exception. With the New York Yankees continuing to add to their roster, the Red Sox are set for another fun division race as they look to win their 4th straight AL East title.
While I tried to keep most of the predictions positive, there is one that some fans may not like. However, I do believe all of these are fairly realistic. It is extremely difficult to predict something boldly and be correct because bold is usually synonymous for something that is unlikely to happen in this situation. It will be fun checking back in October and seeing how these predictions fared. These are all for the regular season.
1. Rafael Devers is the 3rd best hitter on the Red Sox behind Mookie Betts and J.D Martinez
After being forced to debut in 2017 with the Red Sox struggling to find a solution at third base, Rafael Devers did not disappoint. He posted a 110 wRC+ in 240 plate appearances despite some thinking he may have been rushed up. While his offense appeared major league ready, his defense did not. In 507 innings, he had -1 DRS and a -4.6 UZR.
In 2018, his offense hit a wall as Devers dealt with injuries and just struggled as a whole. He finished with a 90 wRC+ and an alarming strikeout rate of 24.7%. However, he woke up in the postseason and was a key contributor, where most remember him for his three-run home run off Justin Verlander in Game 5 of the ALCS.
Coming into 2019, Devers looks ready to have a big year. In 2017, he had a 34.5% hard contact rate and in 2018 that dropped very little to 34.4%. However, his BABIP in 2017 was .342, while in 2018 it was just .281. It would be extremely difficult to maintain a .342 BABIP, but how far it dropped likely suggests Devers was unlucky in 2018 and a bit lucky in 2017. It would be fair to expect a rise in that BABIP, but not to the extent of 2017.
To become the third best hitter, the bigger names he would have to outperform are Xander Bogaerts and Andrew Benintendi. However, it doesn’t seem crazy to think he can finish with higher than the .830 OPS he owned last year, and Bogaerts, despite being a terrific hitter, seems unlikely to repeat his .883 OPS from last season.
The first place Devers could improve is drawing walks. His walk rate dropped from 7.5% to 4.5% last season. His power is there, and his ability to hit the ball hard is there, he just needs to improve his plate discipline, which will likely grow with age. Now healthy, Devers looks ready for a breakout year.
2. Red Sox finish with a top 10 bullpen
Throughout the offseason, the lack of major league depth in the Red Sox bullpen has been talked about a lot. It looks extremely unlikely that Craig Kimbrel re-signs.
Currently, there are only three guys guaranteed to make the roster: Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, and Heath Hembree. Barnes seems to be the favorite to close right now, but Brasier has also been listed as an option by Dave Dombrowski.
Now, despite this lack of well-known guys, the Red Sox do have some really intriguing options that were brought in this offseason, mainly on minor league deals, in addition to Red Sox minor leaguers. To start with the minor leaguers, they have Durbin Feltman and Travis Lakins. Feltman was drafted last year, after a dominant season as the closer at TCU. It is unclear if he makes an impact on opening day, but has a good shot to get called up at some point during the season. Lakins was moved to the bullpen after struggling for years as a starter and has flourished since then. There is Trevor Kelley and Darwinzon Hernandez, both of whom have looked really solid in Spring Training.
In addition to those five, the Red Sox have lots of guys fighting for spots with major league experience. These include lefty Bobby Poyner, former White Sox Zach Putnam, Brandon Workman, Colten Brewer, who was acquired during the offseason, Carson Smith, who is injured, and Tyler Thornburg. Former Marlin Brian Ellington and Jenrry Mejia were also signed during the offseason.
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Thornburg has looked less than impressive so far this spring and may not make the roster. Smith was solid last year before getting hurt. Workman had a 3.27 ERA last year but his 4.42 FIP suggests there was some luck there. Poyner is the only other one from this group who pitched for the Red Sox last year when he had a 3.22 ERA and 4.01 FIP. He held lefties to just a .136 average which is very valuable. He seems to have the best chance to make the roster out of this group.
Of the new acquisitions, there is also a lot to like. Mejia had been putting together a solid career before being banned for numerous failed drug tests. Ellington works with a high 90s fastball and had a solid 2017 before getting injured and subsequently released. He spent 2018 in Arizona, where he struggled in very limited time in the minors. Putnam is a similar situation to Ellington, but with a longer track record of success. He has yet to pitch in the spring due to a hamstring injury.
All of these guys have legitimate upside and its likely that at least a couple breakout. It is also fair to expect Brasier and Barnes to continue to pitch well. Brian Johnson and/or Hector Velazquez will also likely make the bullpen and are solid inning eaters and spot starters. Hembree is not an elite reliever by any means but is solid nonetheless. While it certainly is not an elite bullpen like the Yankees, and the relievers may not be all that well known, I firmly believe this group has plenty of talent and can surprise a lot of people.
3. Michael Chavis is a part-time starter by September
Michael Chavis was a first round pick in 2014 and struggled early in his minor league career. He finally broke out in 2017, displaying great power and was able to crack MLB Pipeline’s top 100 prospects.
Red Sox fans have gotten their first look at him this Spring and he has not disappointed. In 21 at-bats, he has a 1.205 OPS with four home runs.
While it’s unclear where his future is defensively, his bat is what will make or break him. So far in ST, he has played 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. The Red Sox also want to try him out in the outfield and see what he can do there. If he makes an impact this season it will likely be at second or third. Rafael Devers is still waiting for a breakout. In a previous slide, I wrote about what I expect from Devers this season, which would make it difficult for Chavis to find playing time there which leaves second base.
Since debuting in 2006, Dustin Pedroia has been a mainstay in the Red Sox infield. He has a career OPS of .806 and has a terrific glove at second. However, coming off knee surgery, it is unknown what he can really contribute. Last year, second base was a really poor position for the Red Sox in terms of production, with Nunez clearly playing through injuries and Ian Kinsler struggling. Just strong defense would be an upgrade. Chavis though may offer more upside with the bat than any of the Red Sox options.
Next. Who has the most to prove in 2019?. dark
I also think it is possible that Pedroia and Chavis split time at second later in the year to keep Pedroia rested which is why I say part-time starter. However, I hope Pedroia can return to form and be the player Red Sox fans know and love. Regardless of what happens this season, he is a Red Sox Hall of Famer.