Three Boston Red Sox predictions for the 2019 regular season

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LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 27: Rafael Devers #11 of the Boston Red Sox runs to first base on his rbi single to center field in the ninth inning of Game Four of the 2018 World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on October 27, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /

1. Rafael Devers is the 3rd best hitter on the Red Sox behind Mookie Betts and J.D Martinez

After being forced to debut in 2017 with the Red Sox struggling to find a solution at third base, Rafael Devers did not disappoint. He posted a 110 wRC+ in 240 plate appearances despite some thinking he may have been rushed up. While his offense appeared major league ready, his defense did not. In 507 innings, he had -1 DRS and a -4.6 UZR.

In 2018, his offense hit a wall as Devers dealt with injuries and just struggled as a whole. He finished with a 90 wRC+ and an alarming strikeout rate of 24.7%. However, he woke up in the postseason and was a key contributor, where most remember him for his three-run home run off Justin Verlander in Game 5 of the ALCS.

Coming into 2019, Devers looks ready to have a big year. In 2017, he had a 34.5% hard contact rate and in 2018 that dropped very little to 34.4%. However, his BABIP in 2017 was .342, while in 2018 it was just .281. It would be extremely difficult to maintain a .342 BABIP, but how far it dropped likely suggests Devers was unlucky in 2018 and a bit lucky in 2017. It would be fair to expect a rise in that BABIP, but not to the extent of 2017.

To become the third best hitter, the bigger names he would have to outperform are Xander Bogaerts and Andrew Benintendi. However, it doesn’t seem crazy to think he can finish with higher than the .830 OPS he owned last year, and Bogaerts, despite being a terrific hitter, seems unlikely to repeat his .883 OPS from last season.

The first place Devers could improve is drawing walks. His walk rate dropped from 7.5% to 4.5% last season. His power is there, and his ability to hit the ball hard is there, he just needs to improve his plate discipline, which will likely grow with age. Now healthy, Devers looks ready for a breakout year.

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