Future Boston Red Sox success may just rest with pitching developed in the minors – long a developmental void for Boston. Just who could advance?
For those of you in Red Sox Nation that are on the path to receive your Ph.D. in Baseball Philosophy the tenet of the day relates to one Socrates of baseball the esteemed Earl Weaver. The former pugnacious manager of the Orioles was a renowned source of simplifying all things baseball. According to the Earl of Baltimore “The only thing that matters in baseball is that little bump in the middle of the field.”
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Baseball is unique in sport in that the defense controls the ball and that brings us directly to who stands on that bump. Pitching is the main ingredient of defense and the Red Sox had some wonderful ingredients in 2018. The unfortunate circumstances surrounding those ingredients is they were imported and not homegrown.
Baseball operation has a supply chain for replacement parts. The chain consists of scouting and player development and there has been a noteworthy absence of developing arms within the system. The Red Sox churn out quality position players like an adept counterfeiter churns out twenty-dollar notes but pitching? Is it lousy scouting? Bad luck?
There is a fortunate side to internal pitching dysfunction and that is money. The Red Sox may not be counterfeiters, but they can certainly produce income and income can buy what you can’t produce. The projected rotation for 2019 is imported. The only one with even a smidgen of development within the system is Eduardo Rodriguez.
The consequences of doling out bushes of dough are readily apparent when you look at how in the world are we going to pay Mookie Betts? Or Xander Bogaerts? The only notable locally developed arm is closer to be Matt Barnes – a number one draft choice. The rest? Maybe? Possibly? Or most likely forget it. But a change is on the horizon. Sooner or later a drought ends.
The storyline for me vis a vis prospects for 2019 with not be Michael Chavis or Bobby Dalbec, but just how the minor league pitching develops. Will Tanner Houck suddenly figure out the general location of home plate (4.5 BB/9)? And speaking of walks an introduction to youthful (19) righty Bryan Mata. Mata’s 7.3 BB/9 almost matched his 7.6 K/9. Mata could be the proverbial diamond in the rough.
Jay Groome may get some innings into his statistical ledger after arm surgery and a good peek at Groome’s supposedly devastating curveball. I believe the same was mentioned about Henry Owens. The name on the move is Darwinzon Hernandez a 22-year-old lefty who will start the season at Portland (AA). Will he be Jon Lester or Felix Doubront?
The latest addition to the please don’t be Craig Hansen is Durbin Feltman. Feltman made significant travels in 2018 and that was a very good thing. The projected future bullpen closer played for three teams and with each a good show with a 99 MPH fastball. Feltman only tossed 22.1 innings but had control (1.9 BB/9) and swing and miss ability (13.9 K/9). If Feltman does the three-team leap in 2019 he’ll be in Boston on his third move.
Bobby Poyner may make the team this spring after a somewhat mixed review in 22.1 innings in 2018. Poyner is not blessed with a heater since his fastball occasionally reaches just 90 MPH. The fastball bias certainly didn’t curtail the career of Keith Foulke and nor should it with the lefty Poyner.
Chandler Shepherd is now in fringe status after a lukewarm season at Pawtucket (7-10, 3.89) as a starter. The bullpen option is ever-present for the 26-year-old righty, but he may end up a roster casualty.
Kutter Crawford and Mike Shawaryn are two right-handers who could make some gains or regressions in 2019. Crawford will take his schtick to Salem (A+) and Shawaryn will be in the Pawtucket rotation. Neither are considered up in lights prospects.
So we are back to the beginning and just what will happen in 2019 for minor league pitching development. The starting or potential rotation is Mata and Hernandez in the early profiling. Neither appears destined for Boston in 2019. And then there is Feltman. Feltman has high marks and just may sneak in if he continues to upgrade and the Boston bullpen degrades.