Beware the prospect trap while watching the Red Sox in spring training

Prospects are the lifeblood of teams and the Boston Red Sox have a few garnering attention this spring. A cautionary note on projecting future success.

The euphoria of early spring results of players considered the future of the Red Sox creates an illusion that invariably is extrapolated to a conclusion where future success is as guaranteed as saying the sun is hot. And hot is exactly what number one prospect Michael Chavis has been in the first few games tossed into the baseball mixer. A home run hitting delight. I will offer up a second opinion based on a recent BSI article on Chavis. That – of course – can be considered to any preeminent prospect. Be wary.

It happens every spring is the title of a rather ordinary baseball movie, but also about an endless stream of adulation for players that one fully expects to stay in Boston for fifteen or so seasons before giving their required speech at their Baseball Hall of Fame induction. Occasionally a player will surface and be designated with “can’t miss” only to miss.

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Chavis may be a ripe target for plotting out a future that may not transpire and Chavis is certainly not alone this spring as another noted right-handed hitter – Bobby Dalbec – has also gotten early rave reviews. Just how much faith does one put into it? Chances are neither will be having their numbers retired at Fenway Park a few decades in the future.

If you examine the baseball prospect landscape the results are similar to tossing a coin and determining heads or tails. Eventually, after a few hundred flips the results will invariably be equal – at least statistically close to equal. Bluntly stated it is baseball human nature to over project our own players – a wishful desire for only the best to satisfy our emotional loyalty. Be very wary.

Chavis is a very good player, a player who in just 46 games in 2018 – games limited over a drug suspension – blasted nine home runs. The power is obvious as is the ability to simply miss the ball with an attendant 52 strikeouts. In baseball of 2019 this is acceptable, so be it.

What I am negative about is not the player – I sincerely see the positives, but I remain a wary skeptic on young players. For Chavis, his next destination will be in Pawtucket and his venture through the International League will provide another measurement step. The accumulation of information is the real guideline for a clearer evaluation.

Chavis could conceivably be a dominant player for ten years – just like Lars Anderson. Or Chavis could become Will Middlebrooks without the ultimate career crash in which the unforeseen (injuries) became a catalyst for failure. That certainly applies to any prospect so designated a system “Top-Ten” by various “know a hell of a lot more than I do” folks.

The Red Sox farm system is depleted – at least according to reliable scouting assessments. Within the depths are the future of the team and invariably a few will suddenly emerge and catapult over their contemporaries, but meantime the focus will be on the shiny keys such as Chavis, Dalbec, or Durbin Feltman. Be wary.