Boston Red Sox discussion point predictions for 2019 season
The Boston Red Sox will have their assortment of question marks and projects for 2019. After all baseball today has a feeding frenzy on projections. I will join in.
Sports, especially baseball, allow the casual fan and casual writer to indulge in the predictive nature. A substantial cottage industry has emerged like weeds around my compost bin that will tell the curious just how their favorite or least favorite Boston Red Sox player will do in the coming season.
I most certainly throw my money to the winds and do what I pledge each season never to do and eventually, like the rum raisin ice cream addict I am, I succumb. I could give extended details on which nationally known statistical bible I use, but will avoid advertising BP. That should be a clue that even Inspector Clouseau would find tantalizing.
My predictions are not the result of a Bletchley Park codebreakers approach and I pay about as much attention to bWAR and fWAR as I do to my wife’s herd of human dependant felines. I will review post-operative for accuracy and either by a combination of intuitive brilliance or plain dumb luck I am right as often as I am wrong. Similar to that unnamed source mentioned earlier. I now move forward to tell just what will transpire in 2019.
The pathway is becoming rather defined for Mookie Betts with a $20 million handout in arbitration 2 and the recent signings of Manny Machado and Bryce Harper which further define average annual value (AAV) and length of contract for a superstar. The Betts contract is the gift that keeps on giving as a storyline. A mind has gone blank? Writer’s block? Bingo! Betts always sells – the greatest of all Red Sox clickbait.
If you look at the long game, two numbers glare out and that is .264 and .346. For the mathematically deficient, that numerical discrepancy is 82 and is representative of Betts’ batting average from 2017 to 2018. What will it be in 2019? Using my own proprietary formulas, I would say that the darling of all things Red Sox will be a favorite for back-to-back batting titles and possibly MVP’s.
Betts is Mr. Contentment with a new addition to the household, a freshly minted pilot’s license, a bundle of money, a Rubik’s Cube Grand Master, Tenpin master of the universe and more. Contentment often results in complacency, but, hey this is Mookie!
The only wrench that can be tossed into the Mookie is the greatest mantra – forget Mike Trout – is an injury. Last season, Betts missed a small block of games and his Trot Nixon style can have negative results, but I’m focusing elsewhere and that is specifically J.D. Martinez. Is Martinez or was Martinez the catalyst for Betts’ remarkable season? Hopefully, 2019 will not provide that answer.
Who is the best closer in Red Sox history? The list can certainly be extensive and exhausting or minimized. I will prefer the latter. I’d start with Dick Radatz and Jonathan Papelbon. There is also the durable Bob Stanley and for the ancient fans, Ellis Kinder, but they collectively can’t hold a closing candle to Craig Kimbrel. I will leave out Heathcliff Slocumb and his remarkable incendiary ability.
Kimbrel should be with the Red Sox, but a perfect fiscal storm prevents the Red Sox from doing what any sane GM would do and that is re-upping Kimbrel. A replacement is necessary and the tryouts have begun, but the obvious is Matt Barnes. The rest is for show. The real battle of the bullpen is for positional slots in the various non-closer categories.
Barnes is a rather rare item in recent Red Sox history and that is a Sox number one draft choice that actually has a modicum of pitching success. Our system breeds a plethora of offensive juggernauts but goes passive in pitching development. The righty throws hard (96.6 mph) which is considered a prerequisite in today’s game. But rare is the pitcher that is a one pitch trick pony and Barnes has a nasty curveball to entice and confuse.
Walks have a place in my baseball heart as wooden stakes, holy water, and crosses do to vampires. Barnes has that certain quality where suddenly the plate becomes postage stamp size and even the free swingers that encompass virtually all on offense today sit back and wait. And wait. Maybe a nice bunny down Broadway?
The statistical polar opposite spectrum exists with a 4.5 BB/9 and 14.0 K/9. Oh well, we survived Kimbrel and his 4.5 BB/9 of 2018. Fact is it will be sink or swim for Barnes in the bullpen unless the results are so Slocumb like that manager Alex Cora is forced to go elsewhere, but being a prognosticator with no filters I will categorically go on record as stating Barnes will be our new Papelbon.
In 2018, the Red Sox catching collaborative displayed about as much offensive success as a five-year plan in the former Soviet Union. The catchers did have one remarkable statistic in that they led the American League at the position in steals. Even more remarkable considering their OBP was about the pulse rate of a resting biped. The rest? Quite forgettable. The good news when one drills through the statistical minutia are they are above average defensively.
If Betts gained 82 points on his average, Christian Vazquez gave it all back with an 83 point drop from his surprising .290 in 2019. Can Vazquez recover? Will Vazquez even be here? Rumors abound that the Red Sox are looking at a paradigm shift at catcher by reducing one from the mix of Blake Swihart, Sandy Leon, and Vazquez.
Everyone has certain qualities they look for in a player and with catchers, it is an arm that attracts my attention, but not just the capability of throwing hard, but with accuracy. Leon has that ability but it pales in comparison to Vazquez who can intimidate. Is there a statistic that has intangibles buried somewhere? Is there a metric for keeping a runner locked on first out of fear of being cut down like a wheat harvest? Vazquez has that ability.
As if you had not noticed I am a “Vaz Guy” since he came up to the bigs and blew out his arm. He’s back as the catchphrase goes, but the back is just the arm and an offense does not live by arm alone and with Vazquez, his 2018 bat was decorative only. Expect that to change and change for the better. Unless the Red Sox have a new Carlton Fisk buried in the system expect Vazquez to get the bulk of the starts.
I have become a master at poor analogies so I will present one and that is the Siren song of Greek mythology only it is a free agent siren song. The Red Sox have several notables waiting at the line that says “Big Dollars” with an attendant good to great season required. Ask Drew Pomeranz about going splat when the money awaits.
The “Big Three” for those wishing to appoint are Chris Sale – lefty extraordinaire, Rick Porcello of inning-eating fame, and Xander Bogaerts. The one with a giant Citigo Sign question mark looming over his season is Sale.
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Sale has a shoulder issue that surfaced in 2018 and may surface in 2019. If Sale is limited, the price tag deprecates dramatically and a David Price type contractual bonanza will dissipate like a snow cone in the Sahara sun. The Red Sox season survival index will most certainly spiral in the wrong direction is Sale suddenly has to use his right arm to comb his hair.
The legitimate projection for Sale (12-6, 2.91 ERA) is rather ordinary for a pitcher of Sale’s status, but I will agree that will be Sale’s balance sheet for 2019. As I previously stated I have a half and half on predictions and on this one I will hope I am wrong.
Porcello is a different kettle of fish as another archaic expression would note. Porcello is not a great hurler, but a very good one who has enjoyed all the comforts of a four-year and $80 million contract that is running its course. Porcello issues no excuses when he tosses a pitching furball and is the consummate professional at his craft. Expect the usual 200+ innings. Expect another four years or longer deal here or elsewhere.
Bogaerts reportedly is fluent in four languages and he will soon be able to say “I am filthy rich” in all four. Bogaerts is somewhat of an enigma since he has the swing and the physical build to be a Fenway home run machine. Last season you saw it, but this season you will see more and I expect a lot more. Enjoy his last Boston season.
This is the microcosm for the 2019 season – Red Sox and Yankees. In the confines of the American League East, we have a cast for our season-long presentation. The good in our play is naturally the Red Sox and the villain tying the damsel to the railroad tracks is the Yankees. Pure baseball evil, but good and evil are essential. I think Shakespeare did something with it?
In our play we have the wayward son who is a total failure and now is in Baltimore. Another variant is now looking for youth treatments with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. A final is a spoiler who resides in a mausoleum in Florida. A veritable pest who enjoys taunting good and evil, but the only item that counts is will good once again sent evil to crushing despair?
Not this season. Chalk it up for evil. Division title to the Yankees, but baseball has second chances. Good can redeem itself and most certainly will. Characters can sometimes switch dramatic roles and it will happen in 2019 with Boston brushing aside a Wild Card opponent and moving on to another firm baseball spanking of the Yankees – a nice rhyme.
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Why such optimism? The Red Sox pitching has a level of accomplishment and pride firmly developed in 2018. Topping the list is the rejuvenated Price who has tossed off the shackles of postseason failure and embraced success. Expect Price to firmly add his name to the exalted list of Red Sox successes. Staff leadership is important and Price will set the tone. This rotation will blossom most when it counts.