The Red Sox are likely going to choose a closer from their current relief corps. The best candidate for this role is Matt Barnes by a comfortable margin.
Dave Dombrowski has never been one to mince words and he appears dead-set on keeping the bullpen as is. That means that the closer will almost certainly be someone who is already on the Boston Red Sox roster.
Personally, I would prefer to use the best reliever as a relief ace instead of as a closer. There are far too many scenarios when the most important situation in a game isn’t protecting a three run lead in the ninth inning. However, I would be shocked if the Red Sox chose to operate in this manner. Dombroski already mentioned that he expects the Red Sox will announce their closer before Opening Day which certainly doesn’t scream that a sabermetrics revolution is coming to the Boston bullpen.
So with that in mind, let’s talk about the best candidate to be Boston’s closer: Matt Barnes.
Barnes was the top pick of the now legendary 2011 Red Sox draft haul that also produced Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Travis Shaw, and Blake Swihart. He didn’t find his footing in the majors as quickly as some of the above players, but after some rough sailing early in his career, Barnes has been a well above average reliever for three straight seasons. He went more than 60 innings every season, his FIP has bounced between 2.70 and 3.80, and struck out 250 in total – just two fewer K’s than Aroldis Chapman has amassed in the same stretch.
But this past season he had his breakout. In fact, I’d wager he was much better in 2018 than you remember. Let’s do the hackneyed player A vs. Player B comparison.
| Name | IP | FIP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | fWAR |
| Player A | 61.2 | 2.71 | 1.26 | 14.01 | 4.52 | 1.3 |
| Player B | 62.1 | 2.74 | 0.99 | 13.86 | 4.48 | 1.5 |
Pretty comparable seasons, no? In case you haven’t figured it out I’ll give you a hint: one of those pitchers saved far more games for the Red Sox in 2018 than the other. Player A represents Matt Barnes’ performance last year, but Player B stands in for the 2018 season of the hottest closer on the market, Craig Kimbrel.
Yes, Barnes’ relatively high 3.65 ERA overshadowed his peripherally stellar season. In fact, his DRA was 2.21 (7th in baseball among those with 60+ innings) while Kimbrel’s was 2.58. Don’t get me wrong, I’m on the record for wanting the Red Sox to re-sign Kimbrel. But it’s hard to argue that Barnes wouldn’t be suited for the role of closer while a good portion of the Fenway Faithful is clamoring to give a landmark contract to a closer who was, at best, marginally better than Barnes last season.
Back to Barnes’ 2.21 DRA – it turns out that most pitchers who have Deserved Run Averages in this vicinity are very good in the following season (shocking, I know). Below is a list of every pitcher who completed a season with a DRA below 2.25 between 2015 and 2017 (min 60 innings) alongside the results of their follow up campaign.
| Prior Performance | Follow Up Performance | |||||
| 2017 | 2017 DRA | 2018 DRA | 2018 fWAR | 2018 IP | 2018 WHIP | 2018 K/9 |
| Kenley Jansen | 1.90 | 2.56 | 0.4 | 71.2 | 0.99 | 10.3 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 2.24 | 3.11 | 3.5 | 161.1 | 1.04 | 8.65 |
| David Robertson | 1.92 | 3.03 | 1.5 | 69.2 | 1.03 | 11.76 |
| Craig Kimbrel | 1.94 | 2.58 | 1.5 | 62.1 | 0.99 | 13.86 |
| Tommy Kahnle | 2.08 | 4.03 | 0.1 | 23.1 | 1.63 | 11.57 |
| 2016 | 2016 DRA | 2017 DRA | 2017 fWAR | 2017 IP | 2017 WHIP | 2017 K/9 |
| Dellin Betances | 1.89 | 3.04 | 1.3 | 59.2 | 1.22 | 15.08 |
| Andrew Miller | 1.90 | 2.30 | 2.3 | 62.2 | 0.83 | 13.64 |
| Kenley Jansen | 1.93 | 1.90 | 3.6 | 68.1 | 0.75 | 14.36 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 2.01 | 2.24 | 4.6 | 175 | 0.95 | 10.39 |
| Jose Fernandez | 2.22 | Que | en | paz | descanse | Jose |
| Ken Giles | 2.10 | 2.85 | 1.8 | 62.2 | 1.04 | 11.92 |
| Seung Hwan Oh | 2.24 | 5.70 | 0.1 | 59.1 | 1.40 | 8.19 |
| 2015 | 2015 DRA | 2016 DRA | 2016 fWAR | 2016 IP | 2016 WHIP | 2016 K/9 |
| David Robertson | 1.79 | 2.57 | 0.9 | 62.1 | 1.36 | 10.83 |
| Clayton Kershaw | 1.95 | 2.01 | 6.5 | 149 | 0.72 | 10.39 |
| Jake Arrieta | 2.05 | 2.76 | 3.8 | 197.1 | 1.08 | 8.67 |
| Max Scherzer | 2.14 | 2.42 | 5.7 | 228.1 | 0.97 | 11.19 |
| Jose Fernandez | 2.17 | 2.22 | 6.2 | 182.1 | 1.12 | 12.49 |
| Cody Allen | 2.18 | 2.90 | 1.0 | 68 | 1.00 | 11.51 |
| A.J. Ramos | 2.24 | 4.03 | 1.4 | 64 | 1.36 | 10.27 |
| Aroldis Chapman | 2.15 | 2.22 | 2.7 | 58 | 0.86 | 13.97 |
Of that list of 20 seasons above, only three failed to follow up with an elite, or at least very good, performance the next year (not counting Jose Fernandez). Of the three flops, two had less proven track records than Barnes possesses. In particular, Hwan Oh was a rookie in 2016 and Kahnle had never produced positive fWAR prior to his breakout campaign. All of this suggests Barnes would make a very capable closer.
But his case for this role with Boston becomes even more obvious when you remember the quality of the alternatives. The other candidates appear to be Ryan Brasier, Tyler Thornburg, and Steven Wright.
Wright is easily the weirdest name on this list. Peripherals are weird for knuckleballers so maybe he was closer to his 2.68 ERA than his 4.67 xFIP last year. That said, striking out 7.04 batters per nine while walking 4.36 doesn’t exactly spell closer material and he’s only a year removed from being shellacked for 24 runs (including nine home runs) in just 24 innings in 2017. The idea of changing the tempo for hitters after seeing Sale and Barnes throw flames for eight innings sounds appealing, but if someone asked me which relief pitcher was most likely to implode for six runs at any given moment it wouldn’t be a toss up.
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Next there is Tyler Thornburg, who didn’t pitch in 2017 due to Tommy John surgery and was not good at throwing baseballs in 24 innings last season. That said, he was an elite closer in 2016 and if he can find that level of performance again he’d be a reasonable first choice. However, I have written previously about the success rates of relievers coming back from TJ surgery and – spoiler alert – it’s not great. If Thornburg comes back over the first few months looking like he did in 2016 then we can start talking about making him closer. But until that point there’s no rational reason to put him first in line today and there’s no amount of dominance against organizational players this spring training that will inspire the confidence required to strip Barnes of this role.
Finally, there’s the most reasonable alternative: Ryan Brasier. Brasier’s ability to limit walks and his sparkling 2018 ERA make him a popular pick. However, this is a guy who is 31 years old and pitched only 33.2 innings last season and exactly nine big league innings (all in 2013) prior to that. Even beyond those factors, it’s hard not to be skeptical. He allowed the third lowest BABIP (.198) and stranded the 15th highest percentage of base runners (86.2%) among relief pitchers last season with 30-plus innings, which is not typical of pitchers who can’t miss bats (he only struck out 7.75 per nine). His xFIP of 3.78 seems like a much more realistic indicator of his talent given the sample size, the above info, and the fact that he’s never even been a really successful pitcher in the minors and toiled there for 10 years. Brasier falls in the “prove it to me” category with Thornburg and Barnes has already proven he can do it.
Putting together all of the information above, we get a rock solid case to make Matt Barnes the next Red Sox closer. He’s an elite strikeout pitcher, he has a track record of success, and he doesn’t face any particularly strong alternatives. If the Red Sox have a one run lead on Opening Day, I’d be shocked if anyone else took the ball in the ninth inning.