Boston Red Sox: Five bold predictions for the 2019 season
Five bold predictions for the Boston Red Sox this season along with an explanation on why they may be feasible even if they seem unlikely.
Spring training is officially underway for the Boston Red Sox, shifting our focus from offseason mode to looking ahead at the 2019 season. That provides us with an opportunity to make some predictions.
Not just any predictions – bold predictions! The goal here is to think a bit more outside the box to discuss scenarios that may seem unlikely yet remain grounded in reality.
There’s nothing bold about saying Mookie Betts will be an All-Star this year. It would be a massive disappointment if the reigning MVP wasn’t selected to the AL squad! Claiming Blake Swihart will join him on the All-Star team would be too bold, as there’s no rational reason to support his case. That’s not a knock on Swihart but rather an acknowledgment that he’ll enter the season as a third-string catcher who occasionally sees time in a utility role. Barring injury or trade clearing a path for him, Swihart won’t receive enough playing time to be in consideration.
A good bold prediction is something that won’t necessarily come true but at the end of the season you can look back and understand the logic behind it.
Team leader in saves isn’t on the Opening Day roster
The Red Sox enter spring training without an established closer. Craig Kimbrel remains a free agent but barring a last minute change of heart as it pertains to the budget, he won’t be returning to Boston. The role he vacates is up for grabs and performance from the remaining options in camp will dictate who earns the coveted closer spot.
Boston’s preference is to settle on one option to lock down the ninth inning rather than cycle through a committee. That doesn’t necessarily mean whoever starts with the job will keep it all season.
Matt Barnes is the frontrunner entering spring training, coming off a breakout year in which he posted a 3.65 ERA and 14.0 K/9. The strikeout rate is enticing but it’s matched by a discomforting walk rate (4.5 BB/9). His 2.71 FIP suggests he pitched better than his ERA suggests but his career numbers aren’t on par with what you expect from an above-average closer. He’s capable of building on his career year and thriving in a new role but that’s hardly a given considering we’ve never seen him do it before.
If Barnes falters, Ryan Brasier could be the next man up. The Cinderella story of last year’s bullpen owned a 1.60 ERA and 0.77 WHIP last year. This unexpected excellence has Brasier on the radar but let’s not forget that this production came in only 33 2/3 innings after four years of being out of the majors.
Tyler Thornburg is a dark horse candidate. He has some experience as a closer but injuries have prevented him from being a useful asset since the Red Sox acquired him from the Milwaukee Brewers. Carson Smith is even more of a long shot for similar reasons.
Any of these choices would be on a short leash, preventing them from racking up a high save total unless they dominate out of the gate. If none of them can cut it, Boston may be forced to trade for a proven closer at the deadline. Whoever they bring in could tally more saves in the second half than any single reliever from this patchwork bullpen manages before the deadline.
Bogaerts wins a batting title
Mookie Betts is the reigning AL batting champion but one of his teammates could supplant him with the league’s best average this year. No, not J.D. Martinez, the runner-up to Betts last year. This season it will be Xander Bogaerts.
You wouldn’t expect a career .284 hitter to be the frontrunner for the batting title but there are reasons to believe Bogaerts can make that leap. He’s shown the ability to hit for average in the past, finishing second in the league with a .320 average in 2015.
Bogaerts sacrificed a bit of batting average for more power the following year when he hit 21 home runs and topped a .800 OPS for the first time in his career. He maintained a more than respectable .294 average and made his lone All-Star appearance that year.
His 2017 season was ruined when Bogaerts was hit on the hand by a pitch in early July. He was hitting .308 at the time but that average quickly spiraled as Bogaerts attempted to play through the injury. He finished the year hitting .273 while also seeing a drastic dip in his power numbers.
Bogaerts bounced back last season, raising his average to .288 and setting career highs with 23 home runs, 103 RBI, and a .883 OPS. This was the production we expected when Bogaerts was a top prospect, a shortstop who could hit for average with power.
Now that Bogaerts has proven capable of doing both, he’ll aim to continue increasing his run production totals while getting back to the lofty batting averages he showed earlier in his career. Bogaerts will be a free agent after the season, giving him some extra incentive for a career year.
Even if Bogaerts doesn’t actually win a batting title, it should surprise no one if he has the best season of his career.
Devers will hit 30+ homers
Rafael Devers has hit 31 home runs combined through his first two seasons in the majors but could reach that total in 2019.
After belting 10 homers in an abbreviated rookie season, Devers more than doubled that total with 21 last year. The natural progression of this pace would assume he reaches 30 this year, right? See, that was easy.
Not so fast. Devers hit more than twice as many home runs in his Sophomore campaign but it took him more than twice as many games to do it. He played in only 58 games as a rookie but 121 last year. There aren’t 242 games on the regular season schedule so obviously, we can’t use the same methodology to project this year’s total.
The prediction of 30+ homers is based on the expected improvement from the 22-year old, who showed up to camp in excellent shape this spring.
While last year was considered a down year compared to his promising rookie season, Devers still showed what he can do when he makes solid contact. His 41.4 Hard Hit Percentage ranked in the 72nd percentile and his 90.7 Exit Velocity was in the 84th percentile, according to Statcast data provided by Baseball Savant. Devers also registered a 116.3 mph Max Exit Velocity that ranked 15th in the majors last season.
Devers showed impressive power potential throughout his minor league career and projects to be a legitimate power threat some day. This year might be a bit ahead of schedule but he’s certainly capable of exceeding expectations.
Benny joins 25/25 club
Andrew Benintendi already joined the 20/20 club in 2017 when he hit 20 home runs and stole 20 bases. This year he takes it a step further by reaching 25+ in both categories.
While his home run total dipped a bit to 16 last year, that doesn’t mean the power in Benintendi’s bat is on the decline. On the contrary, Benny Biceps saw significant increases in doubles (41), triples (6), and OPS (.830) last season. An uptick in power should be expected in his age-24 season.
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Reaching 25 home runs and steals isn’t a huge leap from what Benintendi has done in each of the last two years, which may lead you to believe this prediction isn’t all that bold. However, we have to recognize the rare company this accomplishment would put him in. There were only four members of the 25/25 club last year – Betts, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, and Jose Ramirez. All four of them were All-Stars last season. Betts was the AL MVP and the others finished no lower than eighth on the ballot.
Benintendi’s sweet swing is designed to drive the ball to all fields more so than smash the ball out of the park. He’s similar to Betts in that he’s not stepping to the plate looking for the home run but by making solid contact he will get his fair share of line drives to clear the fence.
Does that mean the 30/30 club is within reach? Betts and Ramirez were the only major league players to join that group last season. That prediction seems a bit too bold. In Mookie’s case, at least we saw him come close to a 30/30 season in 2016. It would take a far greater leap for Benny to get there.
The 24-year old may get there someday but for 2019 we’ll keep our prediction at a more realistic 25/25 season. That would warrant Benintendi making his first All-Star appearance and may even garner him a few MVP votes.
Sale finishes outside the top-5 on Cy Young ballot
Hey, they can’t all be positive predictions. Following a season in which almost everything went right for the Red Sox, it stands to reason that something significant will go wrong this year. The biggest red flag entering the season is Chris Sale.
Sale hasn’t finished outside the top-five for the AL Cy Young award since 2012 when he came in sixth place. He’s been remarkably consistent as one of the game’s elite starting pitchers for essentially his entire career.
Last season was the first time we had reason to be concerned about the talented lefty. Sale was more brilliant than ever when he took the mound, dazzling to the tune of a 2.11 ERA and 13.5 K/9. It would have been the best season of a stellar career if it weren’t for shoulder inflammation that required two trips to the disabled list in the second half. He ended up making only 27 starts and was limited to 158 innings, his lowest workload since he was a rookie in 2011.
Sale’s production was so impressive that he still managed to finish fourth in Cy Young voting despite failing to meet the innings requirement to qualify for the ERA title. What happens if he regresses without a significant increase in his workload?
The highest ERA that Sale has ever posted was 3.34 in 2016 when he finished fifth in the Cy Young race. He also pitched a career-high 226 2/3 innings that season. It’s not unreasonable to predict that Sale could regress closer to that range rather than one that hovers just over 2.00.
Finishing with an ERA around 3.30 would still be excellent by most standards but it’s hard to imagine that putting Sale in the race unless he carries a heavy workload. Blake Snell won the award last season despite pitching only 180 2/3 innings but it took a spectacular 1.89 ERA to do it.
We expect that Sale will be healthy entering this season but the Red Sox are going to exercise extreme caution with their ace. They will keep a sharp eye on his pitch counts and may even skip his turn in the rotation on occasion. The season is a marathon, not a sprint for a team with postseason aspirations.
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If Sale isn’t asked to be a 200+ inning workhorse then he’ll need to be among the league leaders in ERA to enter the Cy Young conversation. He’s obviously capable of that, having posted a sub-3.00 ERA in three of the last five years. That hardly makes him a lock to do so again in his age-30 season with lingering questions about his shoulder still hanging over him.