Red Sox Free Agency: Possible landing spots for Craig Kimbrel
The biggest relief name, Craig Kimbrel, is still on the board in late January. The Red Sox are the favorites, but watch out for the Braves and Phillies.
While Dave Dombrowski has been quiet about his bullpen plans, the Boston Red Sox have passed on many relievers this offseason. Adam Ottavino, Jeurys Familia, Joakim Soria, and David Robertson are all off the board.
Last year’s closer, Craig Kimbrel, is still available but Dombrowski recently said he doesn’t expect to make a high expenditure at the closer position. Boston’s projected payroll currently puts them below the steepest luxury tax penalties that would trigger if they exceed $246 million. It would be difficult to stay below that threshold if they re-sign Kimbrel. After he declined the $17.9 million qualifying offer, the truth is that Kimbrel will not come cheap.
Given those numbers and Kimbrel’s high original asking price of 6-years and $100 million, it is becoming increasingly unlikely that the team will sign the coveted closer.
However, the current market could also dictate a lower price than Kimbrel is asking, and most of the player’s suitors have already signed at least one reliever this offseason.
Let’s take an in-depth look at the possible landing spots for Kimbrel.
Longshots
10. Cubs (2018 staff ERA: 3.65, 3rd in MLB)
Current closer: Brandon Morrow
2019 free-agent relief additions: None
2019 free-agent relief subtractions: Jesse Chavez
Chicago has several late-inning options in Steve Cishek, Carl Edwards Jr. Pedro Strop and the injured Brandon Morrow. However, their bullpen lacks a true closer and as a big market club, they have a lot of money at their disposal. Kimbrel could fit in nicely as the leader in Chicago.
9. Cardinals (2018 staff ERA: 3.85, 12th in MLB)
Current closer: Jordan Hicks
2019 free-agent relief additions: Andrew Miller
2019 free-agent relief subtractions: None
More from Red Sox News
- 3 players the Red Sox could’ve DFA’ed instead of Jeter Downs and Eric Hosmer
- Eric Hosmer DFA is latest questionable Red Sox roster decision
- Scott Boras rubs Xander Bogaerts failure in Red Sox faces at Masataka Yoshida introduction
- Did Alex Cora just drop a huge hint about Red Sox free-agent target?
- 4 Free-agent DH options Red Sox should consider to replace JD Martinez
After narrowly missing the playoffs for the fourth straight season, the Cardinals traded for Paul Goldschmidt. St. Louis also made a big free agent relief splash when they signed Andrew Miller early this offseason, and seem to be all-in for 2019. Kimbrel could be a great addition as they try to contend for the title in the National League Central, which could be the 2019 season’s most wide-open division.
8. Rockies (2018 staff ERA: 4.33, 20th in MLB)
2019 free-agent relief additions: None
2019 free-agent relief subtractions: Adam Ottavino
As a product of playing in Coors Field and relievers avoiding the stadium at the risk of jeopardizing their career, the Rockies often have trouble filling out their bullpen. They have already lost out on Adam Ottavino, whose 2.0 Fangraphs WAR in 2018 ranked higher than any other free agent reliever. Closer Wade Davis may have led the National League with 43 saves last season, but his 4.13 ERA pales in comparison to Kimbrel’s 2.74 mark in 2018.
Lukewarm possibilities
7. White Sox (2018 staff ERA: 4.83, 26th in MLB)
Current closer: Alex Colome
2019 free-agent relief additions: Kelvin Herrera, Alex Colome
2019 free-agent relief subtractions: None
The White Sox have been active this winter in going after the big names. Both Manny Machado and Bryce Harper have been linked to northside Chicago, but the team has also been active in the bullpen, signing Kelvin Herrera and trading for Alex Colome. Kimbrel could be a great addition as the White Sox try to reverse their ugly 4.83 2018 staff ERA and form a formidable bullpen in 2019.
6. Rays (2018 staff ERA: 3.74, 6th in MLB)
Current closer: Jose Alvarado
2019 free-agent relief additions: None
2019 free-agent relief subtractions: None
The Rays have been very quiet this offseason, as expected for one of the smallest-market teams in baseball. However, if one AL East team is involved in a free agent push, there is usually another and Kimbrel is no different. The Rays prioritize their bullpen over their starters, frequently using openers and bullpen days throughout the 162-game season. While the team already has strong late-inning arms such as Ryne Stanek and Jose Alvarado, they could use a closer. The Rays may not be able to shell out the money, but Kimbrel could be interested in the flexibility and versatility of a Tampa Bay contract.
Interesting Candidates
5. Twins (2018 staff ERA: 4.50, 22nd in MLB)
2019 free-agent relief additions: Blake Parker
2019 free-agent relief subtractions: None
After a disappointing 2018, the Twins have been active this offseason, signing Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron, and Jonathan Schoop. However, they are yet to make many additions to a pitching staff that fell in the bottom third of the majors last season. A late-inning lineup of Addison Reed, Trevor May and Kimbrel could be lights out and help the Twins challenge for their first AL Central title since 2010.
4. Angels (2018 staff ERA: 3.92, 13th in MLB)
2019 free-agent relief additions: Cody Allen
2019 free-agent relief subtractions: Blake Parker
The Angels looked like they had found their closer in Cody Allen, but his 4.70 ERA last season makes him a questionable signing at best. The former Indian also only signed a one-year contract, meaning the Angels are likely interested in someone else long term. The appeal of sunny California and playing with Mike Trout could be enough to lure Kimbrel. The Angels also have a sense of urgency as Trout enters the last two years of his current contract.
Favorites
3. Phillies (2018 staff ERA: 4.14, 18th in MLB)
2019 free-agent relief additions: David Robertson
2019 free-agent relief subtractions: Luis Avilan
The Phillies have been one of the Red Sox’s main challengers for Kimbrel throughout the offseason and have been linked with nearly every free agent reliever. However, the team is still focusing on singing one or both of Harper and Machado, so Kimbrel is not their top priority, especially after signing Robertson. However, if they lose out to the Dodgers and White Sox, Kimbrel could make sense to sure up the Philadelphia bullpen in 2019.
2. Braves (2018 staff ERA: 3.75, 7th in MLB)
2019 free-agent relief additions: None
2019 free-agent relief subtractions: None
After becoming baseball’s most surprise division champion in 2018, the Braves added Josh Donaldson and Brian McCann to an already potent lineup. The addition of a closer that started his career in Atlanta would make a lot of sense, pushing Arodys Vizcaino to the setup role. The Braves are rumored to be more focused on the outfield and their rotation, and with players from Carlos Gonzalez to Dallas Keuchel still on the board, there is a lot of work to be done in those positions. However, if the team strikes out or doesn’t find a fit at either of those roles, Kimbrel could make a lot of sense.
1. Red Sox (2018 staff ERA: 3.75, 8th in MLB)
2019 free-agent relief additions: None
2019 free-agent relief subtractions: Joe Kelly
The Red Sox have been very quiet this offseason, only signing Nathan Eovaldi, Steve Pearce, and Gorkys Hernandez. Their proximity to the $246 million luxury tax threshold means they would be careful in signing Kimbrel to a deal worth more than the $17.9 million qualifying offer that he rejected in November. However, the closer is much more proven in the 9th inning than Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, and Steven Wright. Utilizing any three of those options would be a gamble and the team has to decide which of two options makes the most sense.
Next. Red Sox looking for bullpen bargains. dark
The Sox remain the favorites to sign Kimbrel because a closer is really their only need left going into 2019. The Braves are looking at outfielders and starting pitchers, while the Phillies are in search of Machado and Harper. Out of the three, the Red Sox are probably the only team that has just one signing left to round out their offseason.