What can the Red Sox expect from Xander Bogaerts in 2019?
Following what many would call Xander Bogaerts’ best season in his major league career, expectations should continue to remain high for the 26-year-old shortstop. The Red Sox will be looking for the shortstop to continue to progress in 2019.
Xander Bogaerts has been an interesting piece to the Red Sox puzzle ever since he made his major league debut back in 2013. Bogaerts showed plenty of patience and a calm demeanor as a 20-year-old during the 2013 postseason. This patience is highlighted by him drawing a key walk in Game 6 of the ’13 ALCS off Max Scherzer, which would eventually lead to the go-ahead Shane Victorino grand slam.
However, a disappointing 2014 season in which Bogaerts had a slash line of .240/.297/.362/.660 according to Baseball Reference and just 12 HR’s with 46 RBI’s in 144 games made many Red Sox fans question if Boagerts was the real deal. Especially considering he was the Red Sox top prospect at the time of his call up according to an article from MLB.com’s Ian Browne.
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Bogaerts bounced back quickly in the 2015 and 2016 seasons, as he drove in 80 plus runs in both years and saw increases in both his on-base and slugging percentages. Bogaerts even set a career high in HR’s with 21 in 2016 and earned his first career All-Star Game selection.
Coming into the 2018 season, questions were still being asked on how much of an impact Bogaerts could make in a lineup that included the likes of Mookie Betts and the newly signed J.D. Martinez. Bogaerts’ season started well but after suffering an ankle injury against the Rays on April 8, Bogaerts would be placed on the 10 day DL.
After missing 15 games, Bogaerts came back and managed a slash line of .288/.360/.522/.833 over 136 games while setting career highs in HR’s with 23 and RBI’s with 103. With all of this in mind, what does this mean for one of the game’s most talented young shortstops and his expectations for 2019?
One of the main things to keep in mind with Bogaerts is that he has always been a hitter that has continued to improve on making contact with the ball. Bogaerts’ strikeout numbers have consistently gone down since the 2016 season, as Bogaerts struck out 102 times in 2018 in 580 plate appearances.
This means that Bogaerts’ BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) has consistently been over the major league average of .300, according to Fangraphs. In Bogaerts six-year career, Bogaerts BABIP average are as follows: .323, .296, .372, .335, .327, .317.
Bogaerts’ power has been something that has been in question because we haven’t seen any consistency when it comes to his home run totals. However, one of Xander’s consistent traits in his major league career is his ability to hit doubles and get on base. Bogaerts hasn’t had a season since 2014 where he hit less than 30 doubles and had an on-base percentage less than .300.
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With all of this in mind, my expectation for Bogaerts in 2019 is that he continues to be a player that gets on base and will continue to be a guy that hits in the middle of the Red Sox order. Bogaerts had 476 of his 580 plate appearances in 2018 in which he batted either fourth or fifth in the Red Sox lineup and I expect Alex Cora to do a similar thing in 2019.
With Bogaerts expected to become an unrestricted free agent in 2020, 2019 will be a key year when it comes to evaluating his market come next offseason.