Red Sox: Mookie Betts extension would be too risky for both sides

Contract negotiations are typically set on precedent. Why would Betts want to set the bar now when he can wait for others to do so before he leaps over it?

The current free agent landscape is headlined by Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, a pair of superstars seeking record-breaking deals. We’ve heard rumors of Harper potentially landing a massive $400 million deal. While he may ultimately fall short of that figure, if Harper is worth anywhere near that amount then how much is Betts worth?

Harper or Machado could set a new precedent for what elite free agent position players should be paid. Nolan Arenado or another high-profile free agent could top that next winter. There’s little incentive for Betts to be the one that sets that precedent two years ahead of when he’s eligible for free agency. Not unless he’s concerned about a dropoff in production or injury wrecking his value, which clearly he’s not too worried about.

Those factors are concerns the team would need to consider if Betts were hypothetically open to an early extension. History tells us that locking up a superstar two years before they hit free agency carries significant risk.