Red Sox: Valuing Craig Kimbrel based on his nearest neighbors

BOSTON, MA - JULY 11: Craig Kimbrel #46 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after walking in a run in the eighth inning of a game against the Texas Rangers at Fenway Park on July 11, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA - JULY 11: Craig Kimbrel #46 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after walking in a run in the eighth inning of a game against the Texas Rangers at Fenway Park on July 11, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
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NEW YORK, NY – AUGUST 31: David Robertson #30 of the New York Yankees reacts after striking out the final batter to defeat the Detroit Tigers 7-5 in a game at Yankee Stadium on August 31, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY – AUGUST 31: David Robertson #30 of the New York Yankees reacts after striking out the final batter to defeat the Detroit Tigers 7-5 in a game at Yankee Stadium on August 31, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

Number 3: David Robertson

Pitcher ERA FIP- WHIP IP K% BB% WPA/LI fWAR
David Robertson age 28-30 2.83 64 1.01 194 33.6 7.0 3.93 5
Craig Kimbrel  age 28-30 2.44 57 0.91 184.1 42.3 10.4 5.14 6.0
Difference in Performance (Kimbrel – Robertson) -0.39 -7 -0.10 -9.9 +8.7 +3.4 +1.21 +1.0
David Robertson age 31-33 3.27 81 1.1 124 31.2 10.7 2.27 2

It’s a bit ironic that David Robertson shows up on this list given that the Red Sox were interested  in him this offseason before he inked a two-year pact with the Phillies. Considering how well Robertson has held up with age and how much less of a commitment he received, it makes one wonder whether he was the reliever to get this offseason instead of Kimbrel.

To be fair, it’s not that simple. Robertson will be 34-years old next season and even at his peak one would be hard pressed to argue that he was ever as good as Kimbrel is now. As you can see above, Kimbrel has been better in basically every area besides walk rate over the same ages (this is a pattern you’ll find comparing Kimbrel to most elite relievers as it’s hard to be as dominant as he has been while walking 13% of hitters).

But this exercise should make us all appreciate just how good David Robertson is. His performance during his age-28 to age-30 seasons was just a step below Kimbrel’s and he has maintained that performance in his three subsequent seasons. If the Sox re-sign Kimbrel and he holds up as well as Robertson has, they would have nothing to complain about.

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