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Red Sox: Valuing Craig Kimbrel based on his nearest neighbors

By Cole Witaszek

BOSTON, MA - JULY 11: Craig Kimbrel #46 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after walking in a run in the eighth inning of a game against the Texas Rangers at Fenway Park on July 11, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA - JULY 11: Craig Kimbrel #46 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after walking in a run in the eighth inning of a game against the Texas Rangers at Fenway Park on July 11, 2018 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images) /
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HOUSTON, TX – OCTOBER 06: Craig Kimbrel #46 of the Boston Red Sox stands on the pitcher’s mound in the eighth inning against the Houston Astros during game two of the American League Division Series at Minute Maid Park on October 6, 2017 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

Will Craig Kimbrel live up to a long-term contract? Let’s analyze his closest comparisons to gain some insight on if he’s worthwhile for the Red Sox.

Historically, signing relievers to large contracts has proven to be a fool’s errand. Just look at this list of the highest paid relievers last season. Of the top ten – including the eight pitchers tied for tenth place – perhaps five of these pitchers earned their salary in 2018.

The Red Sox, however, are in a position where they need to pay a reliever a lot of money. Their closer Craig Kimbrel is on the open market and is reportedly demanding a contract in the ballpark of Aroldis Chapman’s five-year $85 million dollar pact. Without a doubt, the biggest question Dave Dombrowski faces this offseason is whether or not to re-sign Kimbrel. To that end, I thought it would be worthwhile to try to get a better picture of what Kimbrel’s performance might look like over the next few seasons.

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