Red Sox shouldn’t be concerned if Manny Machado joins Yankees
The Boston Red Sox shouldn’t worry about the long-term ramifications of the New York Yankees chasing prized free agent Manny Machado.
There was a time when we would shudder at the thought of our fiercest rival signing a high-profile free agent. We would curse the Evil Empire for attempting to buy another championship and complain about the unmatched advantages of residing in the New York market. Times have changed. On the heels of winning the World Series with MLB’s highest payroll, the Boston Red Sox can feel confident about defending their title regardless of the moves their competition make in an attempt to catch up.
Which is why the rumors that the New York Yankees are among the favorites to sign free agent infielder Manny Machado have been met with a mild shrug.
The Yankees brass dined with Machado Wednesday night, pitching the four-time All-Star on the privilege of wearing the iconic pinstripes that he grew up admiring, the impact this franchise would have on his legacy, and why he would be a perfect fit for their roster.
Yankees contingent dined with Manny Machado, his wife and agent tonight in Manhattan. Yanks are interested and in the game, along with Chisox and Phillies. Tour was believed to be those 3 teams, no mysteries.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 20, 2018
The Yankees join the Chicago White Sox and Philadelphia Phillies as the only serious suitors to emerge for Machado this winter. Chicago is years away from fielding a competitive club, which would put Machado back in a similar situation to the one he escaped in Baltimore. Their most appealing pitch is that they can unite him with his brother-in-law. The Phillies are an up-and-coming team that might only be a superstar away from being a contender. As enticing as that may be, the Yankees offer him the chance to join a club that is already a contender. Also, with all due respect to the city of brotherly love, Philly is not New York.
So it seems the Yankees have an edge in this race if they are indeed all-in on luring Machado to the Bronx at any expense. Adding a player of his caliber certainly improves a Yankees team that was defeated by Boston in the ALDS but he’s not enough of an upgrade to make us panic.
Despite the Yankees’ claims that Machado is a perfect fit for their roster, it’s not clear that this is the case.
Upgrading the lineup
The Yankees led the majors in home runs and trailed only the Red Sox in runs scored this year. Machado’s most desirable traits are what the Yankees already do best. I suppose it can’t hurt to upgrade an already lethal lineup but a bat wasn’t exactly New York’s biggest priority.
Machado hit .297 with a .905 OPS, 37 home runs, 107 RBI, and 141 wRC+ this season. Those numbers aren’t quite in the same tier as MVP winners Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich but they may have put Machado in the conversation if he hadn’t switched leagues mid-season.
A career year in a contract season can often be viewed with a fair amount of skepticism. That’s probably not the case with Machado, who has several elite seasons on his resume and has blasted 33+ home runs in four consecutive years. He has shown a relatively low floor though, as recently as 2017 when he hit .259 with a .782 OPS and a barely above-average 103 wRC+ in Baltimore.
A lineup featuring Machado, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez seems imposing on paper but is far less formidable if the Yankees get the 2017 version of Manny. Stanton’s debut season in the Bronx was a big step back from his MVP campaign in Miami, so we can’t assume that joining the Yankees lineup will be a boon for Machado’s bat.
We saw a noticeable drop in Machado’s production after he was traded to Los Angeles. He hit .273 with a .825 OPS in 66 games wearing Dodger blue. Granted, the Dodgers play in a pitcher-friendly park but they also have a lineup that is arguably deeper and more formidable than what the Yankees would surround Machado with.
Let’s not forget that the postseason is what matters most. Machado is a career .213/.268/.382 hitter in 23 career postseason games. He was a pitiful 4-for-22 (.182) without an extra-base hit against the Red Sox in the World Series, the lasting impression of which was Machado falling to one knee chasing a Chris Sale slider for strike three to record the series-sealing out.
Where do they put him on the field?
Machado is best utilized at third base where he’s a three-time Gold Glove award winner. He’ll never return to the off-the-charts level of the 35 defensive runs saved he produced in 2013 but he’s rated well above-average in each of his last three season spent primarily at the hot corner.
The Yankees have Rookie of the Year finalist Miguel Andujar cemented at third base. The 23-year old may be a butcher with the glove but there’s no obvious spot to move him to with Greg Bird and second half-sensation Luke Voit sharing the position on the other side of the diamond.
That would leave Machado at shortstop, a position he prefers but is woefully unqualified for. While he held his own in the limited sample following the trade to Los Angeles, Machado still rated as the third worst defensive shortstop in the majors with -13 defensive runs saved this season.
At least there’s an opening at the position while Didi Gregorius recovers from Tommy John surgery. It’s an unusual scenario considering the injury is typically associated with pitchers, creating an uncertain timeline that projects his return anywhere between June and August. The Yankees need someone to fill in at shortstop for a significant chunk of the season and perhaps beyond with Gregorius slated to hit free agency next winter.
Signing Machado would signal that Gregorius isn’t in their long-term plans. That paves the way for Machado to go unchallenged at the shortstop position for the foreseeable future but is that really a good thing for the Yankees?
How much of an upgrade is he?
To make a staggering investment of this magnitude worthwhile, Machado’s addition needs to fill a hole that upgrades the Yankees significantly. As great as he’s capable of being, it’s not clear that he provides them with that type of upgrade.
FanGraphs rated Machado ninth among major league position players with 6.2 WAR last season. His value is that of a true superstar yet signing him doesn’t mean adding a 6+ WAR player to the Yankees roster. He’s replacing an All-Star in Gregorius valued at 4.6 WAR.
Offensively, Didi wasn’t that far behind Manny this year.
Machado: .297/.367/.538, 37 home runs, 107 RBI, 141 wRC+
Gregorius: .268/.335/.494, 27 home runs, 86 RBI, 121 wRC+
Gregorius was limited to 28 fewer games by injuries that briefly sapped his production following a scorching start before he picked it up again in the second half. He’s not a great defensive shortstop but he’s not the liability that Machado has been.
Sure, Machado is an upgrade but not enough of one over Gregorius to push the Yankees ahead of the Red Sox. Perhaps not even enough of an upgrade to warrant the mammoth contract he’s bound to receive.
About that contract
MLB Trade Rumors predicts Machado will receive a 13-year, $390 million deal. He may not get that many years in these market conditions but 10+ years seems certain and the $30 million average annual value may be conservative. He’s only 26 but that’s still a massive commitment for any player.
It didn’t take long for Stanton’s contract to be viewed as an albatross and the Yankees are still on the hook paying him for nine more years. Imagine the Yankees paying a combined $55+ million to a 37-year old Stanton and 35-year old Machado in 2027! Hey, at least Jacoby Ellsbury might be off the books by that point.
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We tend to think of the Yankees as having limitless financial resources but we’ve learned over the past couple of years that this isn’t entirely true. GM Brian Cashman made a concerted effort to duck the luxury tax in 2018, in part to set up an expected splurge in free agency this winter. The Dodgers did the same. It’s clear the new repeater tax penalties in the collective bargaining agreement have altered the way even the large market teams approach spending.
Committing this much to Machado could potentially hamstring a Yankees team already paying Stanton a massive amount. They’ll be able to shed some payroll over the next few years but also have a young core that eventually will need to be locked up. It’s hard to imagine the Yankees letting Judge get away but when it comes time to pay him, with Machado and Stanton still clogging up the payroll, can they still afford Sanchez, Andujar, and Luis Severino? A tighter budget may force the Yankees to pick and choose who they can keep.
Igniting the rivalry
Let’s say the Yankees do sign Machado and it works out as well as they could have hoped for. Manny becomes a star in New York who is well worth his salary while leading the team to perennial playoff contention. Under those circumstances, it still won’t be all bad for the Red Sox.
A postseason battle between these AL East rivals re-ignited a rivalry that had been dormant for several years as the teams took turns carrying the contender status. Red Sox fans want to see their team win every year but it’s more fun when they go through the Yankees to do it.
What makes this rivalry even better? Having a villain to root against. We hate the Yankees but they don’t have anyone who makes our blood boil. Judge seems like a pretty good dude and may have even once been a Red Sox fan, at least according to that old photo we’ve all seen floating around social media. Stanton doesn’t fit the bad guy mold. It’s similar to how the rivalry was in the early 2000’s. We hated the Yankees yet we respected Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera. It wasn’t until Alex Rodriguez showed up that we had a target to despise.
Machado can be that villain. He was to some extent during his years in Baltimore but the O’s were rarely a threat to the Red Sox and our rivalry with them isn’t quite the same. Machado joining the Yankees would magnify our hatred for him tenfold.
He already has all the traits to fil this role. He’s been called out for a dirty slide into second base several times, injuring Dustin Pedroia on one occasion. He’s been the center of beanball wars. His lackadaisical attitude, refusal to run out ground balls, and the bizarre excuses about not being a “Johnny Hustle” type add fuel to the fire of our distaste.
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There’s never a dull moment when it comes to these teams. Machado would probably make the Yankees better, at least in the short term, but it also makes the best rivalry in baseball better.