Red Sox Free Agency: Nathan Eovaldi deal could be a bargain

The Boston Red Sox gave free agent Nathan Eovaldi a lucrative contract that seems risky yet really isn’t when compared to other high-priced pitchers.

Nathan Eovaldi is here to stay! The Boston Red Sox agreed to terms on a deal that will keep the postseason hero in town for the next few years.

The contract is a four-year, $67.5 million deal, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.

That works out to an average annual value of $16.875 million per year, which currently projects Eovaldi to be the 22nd highest paid starting pitcher in the majors next season. Some of the remaining free agents, or perhaps even arbitration eligible starters, could top that figure. However, we can expect Eovaldi to end up as one of the top 30 highest paid starters in a 30 team league.

That may seem as if it’s a massive overpay for a pitcher who will slot into the No. 4 spot in the Red Sox rotation. We can’t view Eovaldi’s salary through the lens of his position in the hierarchy of a loaded pitching staff though. When compared to other high-priced starters around the majors, Eovaldi is appropriately priced with the potential to be a bargain.

20 starting pitchers made a salary of at least $17 million in 2018. When excluding those who dealt with significant injuries limiting them to fewer than 120 innings, we’re left with 15 pitchers. Here’s the list of those pitchers sorted by salary, along with their value last season according to FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement.

Clayton Kershaw: $35.57 million, 4.6 WAR
Zack Greinke: $34 million, 3.5 WAR
Jake Arrieta: $30 million, 2.0 WAR
David Price: $30 million, 2.7 WAR
Justin Verlander: $28.1 million, 6.8 WAR
Jon Lester: $27.5 million, 1.7 WAR
Felix Hernandez: $26.86 million, 0.3 WAR
Jordan Zimmermann: $24 million, 0.9 WAR
Cole Hamels: $22.5 million, 2.0 WAR
Max Scherzer: $22.24, 7.2 WAR
Masahiro Tanaka: $22 million, 2.7 WAR
Rick Porcello: $21.12 million, 2.7 WAR
James Shields: $21 million, 0.8 WAR
Stephen Strasburg: $18.33 million, 2.3 WAR
Mike Leake: $17 million, 2.3 WAR

The first thought when looking at this list is that there are a lot of overpaid starters. Long-term deals for pitchers carry significant risk and many contracts that seemed wise at the time now look like an albatross. This is one reason why Eovaldi’s contract is appealing. The 28-year old was one of the youngest starting pitchers on the market yet the Red Sox managed to sign him for only four years, a more projectable timeline than the longer contracts given to some other high-priced pitchers.

These 15 starting pitchers averaged 2.8 WAR last season, a figure topped by only Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw, and Greinke on this list. Four of these pitchers produced less than 2.0 WAR, while the other seven came relatively close to the mean.

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Eovaldi was worth 2.2 WAR last season in time split between the Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays, placing him in the middle of the pack and just below the average. He accumulated that total in only 111 innings, as his rehab working his way back from a lost 2017 season delayed his season debut until the end of May. A full season of Eovaldi, if he continues to pitch at this level, should be worth closer to 3.0 WAR. That would put him in the range he was at between the 2014 and 2015 seasons.

If a projection of 3.0 WAR seems reasonable then how could anyone possibly claim he’s overpaid? Kershaw and Greinke topped that value last year but not by twice as much despite that they earned double the salary Eovaldi will make. Verlander and Scherzer are the only high-priced pitchers on this list valued significantly higher than our projection for Eovaldi. Both are former Cy Young winners who were runner-ups for the award in their respective leagues this year.

Only 30 major league starting pitchers posted a 3.0+ WAR this year (minimum 120 innings pitched). If Eovaldi hits that projection it will put him on the fringe of being an All-Star caliber pitcher. That’s not a prediction that Eovaldi will make the AL All-Star roster, it’s merely to point out that his value falls in line with those battling for the final roster spots if you assume about 20 starting pitchers make it between the two leagues.

Eovaldi’s salary may seem pricey but $17 million doesn’t buy what it used to in today’s game. When you compare his contract to other pitchers who earned more than that this year, Eovaldi should have no trouble returning value on his deal.